Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a big 13 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Robbie Ray ($11.2k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Not sure what else there is to say about Robbie Ray at this point. He continues to go out and mow down batters. While his price is steep he’s someone that has unmatched strike out ability on this slate.
Over the last month he has a 40% k rate. He has 4 straight games with double digit strike outs. W/ a match up against an inconsistent Orioles team there’s no reason to think he can be slowed down. The Orioles haven’t been as good against lefties recently and have a 24% K rate over the last 30 days vs. them. I’m locking in Ray tonight in my lineup and not looking back.
Michael Wacha ($8.5k) vs. Detroit Tigers – I’m not as in love with this pick as I am with Ray, but Wacha has been pretty good over the last month. He has 3.18 xFIP and his K rate is approaching 30%. Of all the pitchers on the slate tonight there are only 2 others that have been striking out more batters over the past month than Wacha.
Wacha gets a decent match up too tonight as the Tigers offense hasn’t been doing much over the past week. They have a 26% K rate with limited barrels. At the end of the night tonight Wacha will be one of the higher scoring pitchers.
Tyler Mahle ($9.9k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – After Ray, there really isn’t much to love tonight. The majority of the pitchers have tough match ups but I think we can get some value with Mahle tonight. We’ve seen at times the Cardinals lineup go cold.
They’re in one of those stretches right now as they have a 27% K rate over the past week and haven’t done much in the power dept. They have 6 barrels over the past week and only 38 hard hit balls. League average over the past week is 54 hard hit balls so they are underperforming compared to the rest of the league.
In Mahle we’re getting a pitcher that has a 27% K rate over the past month and has done a nice job in limiting the hard hits w/ just a 24% hard hit rate. The Cardinals could wake up at any point, but I like Mahle’s chances of having a solid game tonight.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Matthew Boyd – Boyd hasn’t pitched much over the past month but from his two outings we can decipher that he’s not sharp. In both outings he last only 4 innings. In those 8 innings he’s managed to give up 3 homers. With the Rays current lineup we know that we can chase homers against Boyd.
Since coming off the IL it’s been righties that have been giving him the most trouble. In 35 PA righties have a .345 ISO against him. I’m going to load up on Rays righties tonight. The first two that I’m targeting are Mike Zunino ($3.4k) and Manual Margot ($2.3k). Let’s start with Zunino who is having just an amazing year. Over the past 30 days he has an unreal .773 ISO against lefties. I’ll let Brian do the home run calls, but Zunino has a great chance to have a solid night.
Other Rays I’m interested in are Nelson Cruz ($4k) and Jordan Luplow ($2.2k). Cruz is another guy that is absolutely crushing lefties right now with a .321 ISO over the last month. Look for the Rays to have another one of those monster nights tonight.
Minnesota Twins vs. Daniel Lynch – Lynch is going to be a good pitcher one day. He’s just not there yet. It’s been a struggle for him so far at the Major League level. Over the last 30 days it’s been an even bigger struggle as his xFIP and SIERA are both sitting in the mid 5’s. Lynch has very clear splits that we can take advantage of. He’s dominant against lefties. But righties. Righties are have a .405 wOBA against him over the last month.
He gives up way more hard contact and fly balls to righties. The middle of the Twins lineup is where I want to sit tonight and they are all very affordable. Refsnyder ($2.2k), Donaldson ($3.1k), Sano ($3.2k), and Rooker ($2.4k) are all extremely cheap given the match up. On a night where we want to get Ray and then the Rays, having a lineup like the Twins will help us afford what we want.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Eli Morgan – Morgan is another pitcher I want to pick on. He’s part of the young crop of pitchers that the Indians are developing and he’ll be solid one day. Right now, he’s just giving up way too many mistakes.
Over the last month he has a fly ball rate pushing 50%. In just 23 innings of work he’s managed to give up 8 barrels. If Morgan had a higher K rate I’d be willing to overlook the barrels but with a K rate of around 23% over the last month he’s just getting into too much trouble. Morgan also has some pretty clear splits.
Lefties have a hit distance more than 70 feet farther than righties do against him. With the Brewers I’m going to live at the back of the lineup tonight. Narvaez ($2.4k), Vogelbach ($2.3k) , and Tellez ($2.3k) are all underpriced for the match up vs. Morgan tonight.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
I’ve listed 3 pitchers tonight but that’s only because my bosses require me to. I’m sticking w/ Ray tonight as he just has so much upside. With the stacks I laid out you should have no issue fitting in the Rays plus Ray plus some decent Twins.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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