Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
We finally have some solid pitching to work around tonight. Some of our big strikeout guys are on the hill tonight so we have some high upside pitchers to work into our lineups. J.A. Happ is also on the mound tonight so you know I’ll be attacking him.
Let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: The Aces
I’ve said this before and I’ll say again, if you are aren’t starting your day with Adam’s Starting Rotation you’re doing it wrong. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the business.
Lucas Giolito ($9.8k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – After a little bit of a lull in performance during the month of June, Giolito appears to have turned the corner with back to back really solid starts. He has at least 8 K’s in each of his last two starts and the match-up tonight against the Brewers presents himself with another opportunity to do so again.
Over the past week the Brewers bats have been very quiet. They have a near 27% K rate and have one of the lowest barrel/hard hit percentages in all of baseball. With Gio on a roll and the Brewers bats asleep behind the wheel, it’s absolutely something I’ll want to take advantage and it’s one of the best match-ups for the all the aces going tonight. With his price under $10k on both sites tonight, he’s going to be my SP1.
Frankie Montas ($8.6k) vs. Seattle Mariners – If I’m going to live in the mid-range tonight, Montas is going to be my guy. Over the past month he’s seen a pretty nice uptick in performance. His xFIP is sitting at 3.96 vs. his season long 4.35 and his K rate is sitting at 26% vs. 24%.
Tonight he gets a match-up vs. a Mariners team has that really struggled of late. In the past week they have a near 30% K rate and only 9 barrels. Montas faced the Mariners once already this season and was able to K 11 guys. While I think that’s about the max he can get, I do like him to take advantage of this lineup again.
Gerrit Cole ($10.5k) vs. Boston Red Sox – It looks like Cole has figured out how to pitch post sticky stuff. His last 2 starts have been absolutely dominant. He has back to back double digit strike out games. This is a feat he hadn’t accomplished since late April.
Over the past month his K rate is 35% which is the highest of any pitcher on the hill tonight. The match-up against the Red Sox isn’t an easy one but it’s one he took full advantage of a week ago. Can lightning strike twice?
MLB DFS: The Bats
New York Mets v. Steven Matz – Matz makes his return back to New York tonight. His first start where it all began. A kid from Long Island that go to play for his hometown team. There’s definitely some narrative tonight with Matz, but there’s also a match-up with the red hot Mets lineup.
Matz at times has been very good this season. He’s also had some outings that brought back a lot of memories of his time with the Mets. He does not line up well with this Mets offense. He’s going to throw predominantly a sinker tonight. Mets have some hitters on the right side that absolutely crush left handed sinkers.
Alonso ($3.9k) has a .833 ISO against this pitch. Both JD Davis ($3.4k) and James McCann ($2.5k) have ISO’s over .360. Up and down this lineup, they hit the sinker well. Mets tonight have the potential to really ruin Matz’ homecoming tonight. Look for the ball to fly out of the park tonight against Matz.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kris Bubic – Bubic is slowly becoming one of my favorite pitchers to attack. His sophomore campaign has not been a good one, and he’s been even worse over the past month. In his last 15 innings of work he’s given up 4 homers. He also has a 39% hard hit rate and a 44% fly ball rate.
This is the type of pitcher that we want to target and we’re going to target him with the hottest team in baseball. His ISO against this year is greater than .222 to both sides of the plate. He’s actually been a bit worse against lefties so we won’t need to shy away from guys like Baddoo ($3k) tonight.
I’m going to go heavy on Schoop ($3.4k), Grossman ($3.2k), and Haase ($2.9k) though tonight. All three have ISO’s greater than .200 to lefties this year and they’re facing a very hittable one tonight. Tigers are going to face a heavy mix of fastballs and change ups tonight. Haase has a .273 ISO against change ups. He is the cornerstone to my build tonight if using the Tigers.
Los Angeles Angels vs. J.A.Happ – After a nice 3 game stretch at the end of June and beginning of July that saw Happ have solid games, the old Happ resurfaced in his last outing against the Tigers. Look for that Happ to appear again tonight.
He’s facing an Angels team that has been one of the best in baseball against lefties this year. They have a .781 OPS, .191 ISO, and a wRC+ of 115 vs. south paws. And they got one of their best lefty crushers back last night in Justin Upton ($3k). Happ is far worse against righties as his ISO balloons up to .274 against them. He also gives up way more hard contact to them at 42%.
That said, Ohtani ($4.4k) has crushed lefties this year with a .362 ISO and should be part of your stack. Two other guys I’m interested in here are Fletcher ($3.3k)and Iglesias ($2.7k). Both guys are swinging hot bats OPS’s over .900 in the last week.
While these 3 teams are my favorite stacks tonight, there are a plethora of teams in great spots. Dodgers vs. Chi Chi and Astros vs. Allard are both great match-ups. Allard has been very susceptible to the long ball this year. You also have to love both teams in Baltimore tonight as Lopez and Corbin are both guys that can struggle to get batters out.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
We finally have some high strike out guys on the hill tonight. There are also a handful of gas cans throwing tonight so ownership of stacks should be well spread out. Outside of some potential showers in Boston we should have some clear skies throughout our games tonight.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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