Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.7
I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering Aces and Bases for the weekend. Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let’s run it back today. The August 7th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.
Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.
MLB DFS: The Aces
Best Value: Griffin Canning ($8,200 DK/$7,200 FD)
Is Canning the perfect example of an ace? Not exactly but he is a talented young pitcher who’s forging his path in the majors. We don’t exactly love the fly ball rate at 44.5% but we do like a 26.7% K rate for under $8,500 on DK. That’s a potential source of cheaper strikeouts.
Now, Canning does draw the Rangers which can be scary with his fly ball rate. Texas is breaking in a new ball park and through five games, it’s the 29th rated park for home runs. The obvious caveat is five games is barely a sample, but it’s at least interesting. The Rangers also haven’t been a major strikeout team against RHP yet at just 20.6%. They are bottom eight in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ so the offense hasn’t gotten out of the blocks yet.
Honorable Mention – Tanner Roark in GPP ONLY
Top Ace(s): Trevor Bauer ($10,600 DK/$11,400 FD) Aaron Civale ($9,300 DK/$9,300 FD)
If you’re paying up on MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.7, there’s two options in my mind. Bauer has to be discussed first as he’s been a monster in the early going. He’s got 13.1 IP under his belt and he’s mowing down hitters with a 42.5% K rate and a 1.68 FIP. It has to be pointed out that his BABIP against is only .130 and the LOB% is 100%. There is “regression” coming to some extent but A. it’s not going to kill him and B. Milwaukee might not be the team to force that regression. They have the second-highest K rate vs RHP at 29% and only a .181 ISO and .286 wOBA.
Civale is more of a GPP option because the matchup has more potential to bite him. The White Sox are indeed a strikeout team we want to go after with their 24.9% K rate. The danger comes from them being a top 10 team in the major offensive categories we use with the exception ISO (17th). Civale doesn’t have a track record of being a strikeout pitcher but he’s only thrown 69.2 innings in his career and just went over 20% in K rate through his first couple of starts.
Honorable Mention – Julio Urias, but he is pricey on DK
Punt Play: Yusei Kikuchi ($5,000 DK/$7,200 FD)
Anytime the Rockies venture out of Coors Field, my eyes turn to the opposing pitcher and today is no different. Kikuchi is insanely cheap on DK and he’s shown some intriguing new skills through the first little bit.
First off, his fastball velocity has jumped in a big way. He sat around 92 MPH for much of 2019 and now he’s consistently at 95 MPH. The batting average given up of .333 is skewed by a .500 BABIP and that will come down. His ground ball rate has jumped by 11% to right about 55% overall. The swinging strike rate went from 8.8% in 2019 to 14.5% this year. Even the K rate has come up to 34.2% through 9.2 IP.
When we combine all these improvements with the 2019 road stats for Colorado, Kikuchi has some potential here. The Rockies on the road vs LHP were bottom 10 in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ in 2019 with a massive 29.5% K rate. Kikuchi has to avoid Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story but this could be a really good outing for him.
Honorable Mention – None
Top Fade: Zack Greinke ($10,200 DK/$8,800 FD)
You could perhaps twist my arm on FD, but even then it’s a reach. Greinke has had this thing where his velocity takes time to build up the past couple of seasons. That’s usually a spring training thing, but COVID put a stop to that. Instead, Greinke is up there throwing about 86.7 MPH on his fastball. His changeup is getting clocked at 85.8 MPH so there’s virtually no difference in velocity with those pitches. That’s a pretty big yikes for me. There’s a reason his K rate is a paltry 16.7% on the year.
Honorable Mention – Jon Lester
MLB DFS: The Bases
There are a ton of different ways to build your offense on these big slates. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.
We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Friday’s Main Slate.
Top Stacks
- Toronto Blue Jays – The slate has 13 games and no Coors Field, so chalk really isn’t any concern here on MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for 8.7. Boston is throwing Ryan Weber out there and I have as many strikeouts as he does through 7 IP. The HR/9 is 5.14 and the FIP is 13.46. The Jays should get to him and the Sox bullpen is giving up a .329 wOBA.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Jeff Samardzija is pitching for the Giants and he’s been flat awful through 9.2 IP. He’s always had issues with LHH and this year righties are tuning him up for a .407 wOBA. The Dodgers should chew him up tonight.
Value Stacks
St. Louis Cardinals – This can be a staff pick because I know Nick already mentioned them on a video today and Win Daily employs Brian Tulloch. With Jon Lester on the other side, the Cards are a threat to break open the slate and super cheap with so few games played. Lester has an 0.82 ERA and a 5.56 xFIP with an 11.9% K rate. The math is simple.
COVID strikes once again. I would replace the Cards with the Miami Marlins. Yes, you read that correctly. Nobody ever plays Miami but Michael Wacha for the Mets is rocking a 6.00 ERA and a FIP of 5.25. The top four hitters are all $4,600 or under and can work with any pitching combo.
- Seattle Mariners – You’re not going to go overboard here, but Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is nothing to write home about. His xFIP is over two runs higher than the ERA and his K rate has never crossed 20% in any season. A mix of Kyle Seager, Dylan Moore, J.P. Crawford and Kyle Lewis will be very sneaky.
Monkey Knife Fight
Using the information above, you can even make some money on Monkey Knife Fight! With my top stack being the Blue Jays, I love the big hitters in their order to exceed their fantasy points for a 5x return! Check out how to play with our quick overview here.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
