DFSGhost 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have two 4 game slates to navigate through.
Both slates today lack obvious pitching options. They each have 1 ace and then a bunch of blah supporting actors. If ever there was a day to either sit one out or play light, today’s that day.
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Early Slate “Aces”
The pitching on today’s early slate leaves a lot to be desired. A case could be made for or against a handful of pitchers
Aaron Nola ($9.9k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Nola dominated this same team a couple of weeks ago w/ 10 k’s and a CG SO. Does that happen again today? Doubtful. But the Cardinals are a pretty right handed dominant lineup and righties are a “weakness” for them. They have a 26% k rate vs. righties this year and a wOBA of only .291. While I don’t think Nola has a game like he had last time out vs. this team, I do think he pitches well enough to bring some value to his salary.
Jordan Montgomery ($8.1k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles have a 27% k rate vs. lefties this season and only a .148 ISO. Montgomery was successful against the Orioles earlier this month and I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be again today. The one thing that is giving me caution with Montgomery is that he’s giving up a ton of hard contact this season. To the tune of 35.7% . Highest of any pitcher on the slate. Tread lightly with this one..
Kwang-hyun Kim ($7.5k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Guess we have ourselves a pitcher’s duel in St. Louis today. Kim showed some serious upside last week with 8 k’s in only 5 innings vs. the Reds, while limiting them to only 1 run. There’s a small sample size on Kim this year but so far he’s pitched to a 2.82 xfip with a 14.4% SSR. The Phillies are k’ing 29% of the time vs. lefties this season. Kim’s ability to miss bats + the Phillies k’ing a ton vs. lefties could equal a nice success story. Similar to Montgomery though, the contact that he’s giving up tends to be hard contact. 33% for the year. Tread lightly with this one too…
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats
New York Yankees vs. Jorge Lopez – Could the Yankees be heating up? They’ve scored 12 runs over the last 2 games. And they get to face a pitcher today that’s already given up 6 homers in only 17 innings. Over the past week some of the Yankees bats are really hot. Giancarlo Stanton ($3.4k) and Aaron Judge ($3.5k) both have wOBA’s over .400 in the past week and wRC’s over 5. 1-4 in this lineup should be popular this afternoon.
Houston Astros vs. Yusei Kikuchi – If for some reason you are fading the Yankees today, the Astros present a good secondary option. Kikuchi hasn’t been missing bats. He has a 10.9% swinging strike rate which is second lowest on the slate. Second only to Lopez. He’s also given up 5 homers in only 23 innings of work. His 2 main pitches are the fastball and slider. I’m going to focus on the Astros success vs. the slider. Jose Altuve ($3.8k) and Alex Bregman ($3.6k) both have hard hit rates greater than 50% vs. this pitch and ISO’s over .230. Both of those guys will be main targets for me.
This is an ugly day slate. I anticipate value opening up today so make sure to keep an eye on lineups.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Ace
Trevor Bauer ($11k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Bauer will be chalk tonight. On some nights, you just need to eat because there’s either no other option, or limited options. Tonight is the night to eat the chalk. Bauer is far and away the best pitcher on the slate with a matchup against a team that has a 27% k rate against his handedness. Really don’t need to dig in much to this one.
Kyle Gibson ($9.2k) vs. Boston Red Sox – If you take out his first game of the season, Gibson has been one of the better pitchers in the game. He’s only given up 2 ER in his last 27 IP. While is xFIP is more than a run higher than his ERA, it’s still very respectable at 3.67. The majority of the power from the Red Sox comes from the right side of the plate. Gibson’s main pitch to righties is his sinker and the throws it nearly 44% of the time. Martinez, Bogaerts, and Hernandez all have low ISO’s vs. this pitch. When you switch to the left side, one of his main pitches is the changeup. Only Devers profiles well against this pitch. I could see Gibson continuing his solid performance tonight.
These are really the only 2 pitchers I’m considering tonight. The only other person I’d even remotely consider is Martin Perez ($6K) vs. the Texas Rangers.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Eric Lauer – Lauer makes his season debut today. Because of that, I don’t think he goes very deep. The good news for us? On the season, the Brewers bullpen has a 4.52 xfip. So we’d be going with a pitcher who had a 4.92 xfip from 2019-2020 to a bullpen that has struggled this year. The current lineup of the Dodgers has a .202 ISO and a .327 wOBA over the last couple of season to lefties. Betts ($4.4k), Seagar ($3.9k), Turner ($4k), and Smith ($3.2k) all have wOBA’s over .300 vs. lefties since 2019. Love the spot here for the Dodgers.
Atlanta Braves vs. Adbert Alzolay – Alzolay hasn’t pitched as bad as his ERA looks. His xFIP is a full 2 runs lower than his ERA. This is just a bad matchup for him tonight. His main pitch is his 94 mph fastball. Let’s look at what the Braves hitters have done to this pitch if we look back all the way to 2016. Ronald Acuna ($4.3k) .289 ISO and a 57.5% hard hit rate, Freddie Freeman ($4k) .221 ISO and 51.72% hard hit rate, Marcell Ozuna ($2.6k) .269 ISO and 45.24% hard hit rate, and Ozzie Albies ($3k) .391 ISO and 48.28% hard hit rate. The backend of that stack is cheap.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrap Up
Like pitching, I really only have 2 spots I’m in love with the hitting matchup. This too is an ugly slate and I’m already looking forward to tomorrow’s slate. Play light, play wise, good luck!
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