Jared Levitt 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a fun 5 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
Dumpster Fire – an utterly calamitous or mismanaged situation or occurrence : disaster
This is how I would define the pitching on today’s main slate. The “top” pitchers on the slate are in less than ideal situations with the pitchers in good positions being very mediocre. As a result, the goal today will be to limit the damage.
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: The “Aces”
Walker Buehler ($9.8K) vs. San Diego Padres – I’m going to be honest, I want no part of Buehler today. For the season, Buehler has struggled to K batters. His K rate compared to years past is way down. This year he’s at 17.1% vs. 29% if you go all the way back to 2019. It’s early and I’m sure the k’s will come, but at his price point you want K’s and they just won’t be there today. The Padres for the season are only striking out at a 20% clip against righties. For me, Buehler is an easy fade today.
Alex Cobb ($8.7k) vs. Houston Astros – I wish his matchup was better. He’s the one pitcher on the slate today that’s really been dealing this year. Through 2 starts he’s already racked up 17 k’s through only 11 IP. My concern here is the Astro’s lack of K vs. righties. For the season, they’ve only k’d at a shade under 21% vs. righties. While this isn’t a ceiling game for Cobb, he should strike out enough Astros to pay off his salary.
Aaron Sanchez ($7.2) vs. Miami Marlins – I feel dirty writing up Sanchez. When you think of fantasy goodness, his name normally isn’t in the convo. This is a pure match-up and slate based play. Sanchez doesn’t go deep. He hasn’t gone past 5 innings all year. So you won’t get a QS, but what you’ll get out of him today is someone that will limit the damage and get you around 20 points. Over his past 2 starts he’s induced a ton of ground balls (48%), which is his MO. The Marlins have struggled this season vs. righties. They have a 25.4% k rate and a low ISO of .105. Hate to say it, but he’s one of the lower risk guys today.
My theme for pitching today will be, limit the damage. I’m picking between Cobb and Sanchez, but don’t sleep on Nick Pivetta vs. the Mariners. It’s a good matchup for him and if he can limit the walks he’ll be in a good spot.
MLB DFS: The Bats
First place I’m looking today is Wrigley. Similar to last night, the flood gates should open for both offenses. This time it will be weather aided, not defense aided. 20 runs were scored (mostly by the Cubbies) last night and I don’t think this today will be any different except for it being more evenly spread. At game time the wind should be blowing out to right center at 12 mph. When the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, the runs follow quickly.
For his career, Joey Lucchesi has given up a .208 ISO to righties. The first guy I want to pencil in from the Cubs is Javier Baez ($3.9K). He’s finally heating up after really struggling to start to the year. He has a career .285 ISO vs. lefties. While the sample size is small, he’s had some success against Lucchesi also. Other guys I want to look at are Wilson Contreras ($3.6k) and Kris Bryant ($3.8k), who’s auditioning for his future team.
The New York Mets also have a really solid match against Williams. The one metric that really stands out with Williams is his WHIP. Over his past 2 starts, he’s had a 2.28 WHIP. He’s really struggled to keep guys off the bases. The Mets have one of the best guys in the business at getting on. Brandon Nimmo ($3k) leads off with a walk tonight, followed by a Francisco Lindor ($3.1k) homer. Not a bad way to start the game! Also really love Michael Conforto ($2.7k) here who is dirt cheap. Willams = Conforto’s slump buster.
My final stack of the day takes us to the Boston Red Sox. Justin Dunn has a respectable 3.72 ERA to start the year, but his xFIP is a full 3 runs higher at 6.79. There’s regression coming for Dunn, and I want to take full advantage of it. There will be a stiff breeze blowing out to right field tonight and because of that, I want all of Alex Verdugo ($3.4k) and Rafael Devers ($3.4k).
MLB DFS Aces and Bases Wrap Up
From a rain standpoint, weather won’t play an issue today. But the weather in Chicago and Boston will be our friends for offense. While pitching is going to brutal tonight, enjoy watching the offenses take full advantage!
Enjoy today’s slate. With the lack of a clear pitching path and some solid spots for offense, it should be a fun!
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