We’re back on the grind and have seven MLB games on the Monday slate. I won’t be looking at all of them, but I do think we can make some good investments with a couple of MLB games.
We’ll belooking at these investments in terms of “units”. If you aren’t familiar withthis method, think of units as cash. If $100 dollars is your normal wager, thenone unit equals $100 dollars. So, a “one unit” rating would mean I’mrecommending you wager your usual $100 dollar bet and so on. Let’s see what wecan find for Monday!!
St LouisCardinals (+114)vs MilwaukeeBrewers (-124)
Wainright (9-9, 4.51) vs Gonzalez (2-1, 3.64)
Pick: Brewers -124
Wager: Two Units
This is a huge series for both MLB clubs as they are fighting for the National League Central Division title. Both offenses are Top 10 over the past two weeks and the Cardinals enter this series riding a four-game winning streak and hold a 2.5 game lead over the Chicago Cubs with Milwaukee being 4.5 games away from the Cardinals. Milwaukee has played .500 ball over their last 10 games and just saw a three-game winning streak snapped at home by the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Wainrighthas been good for the Cardinals but is 3-6 with a 6.64 ERA over 61 inningspitched this season away from Busch Stadium. Wainright has a 1.57 WHIP and his 4.78xFIP suggests maybe Wainright has been unlucky on the road this season andcould see some positive regression. The veteran righty strikes out 8.26 pernine while allowing 3.98 walks and serving up 1.48 bombs per nine inningspitched away from Busch Stadium this season.
Gonzalez has made five starts at Miller Park this season and is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA over 25.1 innings pitched. Gonzalez boasts an elite 1.07 WHIP and his 4.19 xFIP seems to suggest Gonzalez has been unlucky at home and could see some positive regression at some point this season. The veteran lefty whiffs 9.59 per nine innings pitched and allows 3.91 walks and 1.78 home runs allowed at Miller Park this season.
Why Pickthe Brewers over Cardinals?
St Louis is coming into this series on fire and just swept the Colorado Rockies at Busch Stadium. Wainwright isn’t the bulldog he once was and has allowed 19 earned runs over his last 25.1 innings pitched away from Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are 30-33 on the road and 17-26 as the road underdog.
Gonzalezallows 2.09 bombs per nine at home to right-handed hitters and the Cardinalshave HUGE power from the right-hand side with a .185 ISO and .322 wOBA againstsouthpaws this season. Gonzalez strikes out 11.42 righties per nine inningspitched and the Cards will likely help Gonzalez add to his total with their21.8 percent strikeout rate against lefties this season.
I saw thefollowing trends that might be helpful to you Monday night.
- Brewers are 4-0 in Gonzalez’slast 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 9-1 in Gonzalez’slast 10 home starts.
- Brewers are 5-1 in Gonzaleslast 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Play Milwaukee to beat St Louis in this MLB contest Monday.
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Los AngelesDodgers (-152)vs SanDiego Padres (+142)
May (1-2, 4.26) vs Lauer (6-8, 4.47)
Pick: Padres +142
Wager: Two Units
We have a National League West MLB matchup to consider here and the Dodgers enter this series having dropped two of three to the New York Yankees. The Padres have lost four of their last five but did manage to beat the Boston Red Sox at Petco Park to snap a four-game losing streak. The Dodgers have scored 10 runs over their last five games and San Diego has plated 11 runs over their last five games.
May is arookie and has pitched out of the bullpen with three starts this season. Thesample size is small but May has a 1-1 record with a 5.87 ERA over 7.2 inningsof work away from Dodger Stadium. May allowed five earned runs over those 7.2innings pitched and has a 1.07 WHIP with a 4.26 xFIP that suggests maybe Mayhas been a bit unlucky and could see some positive regression at some pointthis season. Away from the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, May strikes out5.87 per nine with 2.35 walks and allows 1.17 dingers per nine innings pitched.
Lauer hasbeen solid at Petco Park this season with a 3-3 record and a 3.10 ERA alongwith a 1.34 WHIP and a 4.89 xFIP suggesting maybe some regression is headed thesouthpaw’s way at home this season. Lauer has allowed 10 earned runs over hisprevious 21.1 innings pitched and strikes out 6.34 per nine with 2.21 walks and0.89 bombs allowed over his 61 innings pitched at Petco Park this season.
Why pickthe Padres to beat the Dodgers?
Both sideshave struggled to score runs and the Dodgers enter this series coming off a disappointingseries loss to the New York Yankees. The Dodgers aren’t that great of a roadteam and is 31-27 as the road favorite. Lauer has owned the Dodgers over thepast three seasons with a 3-0 record and 0.92 ERA over a span of 19.2 inningspitched. May is a highly touted rookie but struggles on the road. The Padres havea high, 25.6 percent strikeout rate against righties but do have a .189 ISOwith a .313 wOBA against righties and I think that will be enough to win thisgame.
I saw thefollowing trends that could be helpful Monday night;
- Padres are 5-1 in Lauer’slast 6 starts vs. Dodgers.
Play two units on the Padres beating the Dodgers on this MLB matchup Monday night.
