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Mitch’s 3/4 NBA position Breakdown

In this article, I will break down each position with my top stud, middle tier, and value plays for this NBA DFS slate. I will be referring to DraftKings on pricing. Most picks are for GPP/Tournaments, some would also be viable for cash games.

Monday night may have been my worst night ever in my years of NBA DFS, but tonight we’re looking to bounce back with this nice nine-game slate. We got four out of the five fastest-paced teams, and three of the four worst defensive teams on tonight’s slate. Boston had both Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward go out with injuries, while Jayson Tatum missed last night’s game as well. Injury news will be very important to watch for tonight’s slate, so make sure you check out the Discord chat rooms where myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff breakdown any injury news that surfaces and dig deeper into our favorite plays.

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Point Guard

LukaDoncic – Stud – ($10,900)

Luka waspart of my terrible Monday night and that was without Porzingis, although withthat, I think that will keep his ownership down some. He gets a fantasticmatchup against the Pelicans who have given up the most fantasy points to pointguards in the NBA, and they are the fourth fastest team in the league. Hisperformance hasn’t been up to par as of late, but he was seen at least 37minutes in three straight games and the matchup is about as good as you canget.

Ja Morant – Mid-tier – ($7,200)

Over the last month of the NBA season with Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke off the floor, Morant sees a 25.1 percent usage rate and is averaging 45.4 fantasy points per 36 minutes. Facing Brooklyn is a solid matchup as they have surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards this season and are the tenth fastest team in the league.

JordanMcLaughlin – Value – ($3,800)

This play is under the assumption that D’Angelo Russell sits the second half of the Wolves back to back. In that case, McLaughlin sees the most minutes on the team and is also averaging 40.5 fantasy points per 36 minutes, with Russell off the floor. In Minnesota’s last game without Russell, McLaughlin played 34 minutes while scoring 38 fantasy points in a tough matchup against Denver who is the second slowest team in the NBA this season. If Russell does play though, Matthew Dellavedova would be an intriguing play as he played almost 30 minutes last game with Dante Exum and Darius Garland of the floor.

Shooting Guard 

Caris Levert – Stud – ($7,200)

I was on Levert last night and he did pay off for me, I will go back to the well tonight even though he’s on the second leg of a back to back. He gets a great matchup against Memphis who has given up the fourth-most points to shoot guards and is the seventh-fastest team in the NBA this season. Given the matchup and his usage rate of 31 percent over the last month, Levert should easily pay off this price tag.

Kevin Porter Jr. – Mid-tier – ($5,300)

With Darius Garland and Dante Exum already being ruled out again, I expect Porter Jr. to get the start here as he did last game. In that game against the Jazz he played 41 minutes and he has yet to log under 30 minutes in three straight games. Boston is looking like it could be where all the value is on tonight’s NBA slate, but I expect their defense to take a big hit as well so I’m on Porter Jr. tonight if at least two of these Boston players are out.

Langston Galloway – Value – ($3,600)

This is not going to be a matchup-based pick by any means and it is a tournamentplay. Detroit is looking thin in the backcourt, with Derrick Rose and BruceBrown unlikely to play, Brandon Knight is also questionable. Derrick Walton Jr.is currently not on the Piston’s NBA roster either so this could be anextremely thin backcourt. If Knight is out, tons of minutes will be availablein the backcourt and Galloway should see at least 30 of those minutes. If Knightdoes play, I’ll play him instead of Galloway in this spot.

Small Forward

Khris Middleton – Stud – ($7,200)

I’m not a big fan of spending up on small forward tonight but I do think Middletonis the best bet if Tatum doesn’t play. Middleton has dropped over $1,000 onDraftKings in a little over a week. He hardly scores under 30 fantasy points, I’mlooking for consistency tonight at small forward being I think it may be theweakest position on tonight’s NBA slate.

Tj Warren – Mid Tier – ($6,100)

If Victor Oladipo sits tonight I like Warren more, but regardless Warren does have the highest usage rate on the team. He is facing Milwaukee, who is currently the fastest team in the NBA. Warren has yet to see under 36 minutes in his previous three games. In a game against the Bucks less than a month ago, Warren scored 53 fantasy points in 39 minutes. The playoff race is heating up and Indiana is only two games back from home-court advantage first round I expect a lot of minutes from them moving forward.

Grant Williams – Value – ($3,100)

I expect Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward to be out, it wouldn’t surprise me if Kemba sat the second half of the back to back either. Boston could be very thin at forwarding tomorrow against a bad Cleveland team who has given up the third-most fantasy points to small forwards and are currently the second-worst defensive team in the NBA. If two of the guys above players end up being ruled out is the only way Williams is in consideration.

Power Forward

Zion Williamson – Stud – (8,000)

Zion is priced $100 above Brandon Ingram but I’m taking Zion over Ingrambecause Zion is more consistent. Zion has scored at least 40 fantasy points in sixof his last eight games. He is making his case for NBA rookie of the year, dueto him averaging 24 points per game so far this season.

Rui Hachimura – Mid-tier – ($5,400)

On the second leg of the back to back, the Wizards square off with Portland who is expecting to have Damian Lillard back. This is a very nice matchup for Hachimura as Portland has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to power forwards over the course of the NBA season and has given up the sixth most over the past month. Portland also ranks as the fourth-worst team in defensive efficiency this season.

Maurice Harkless – Value – ($3,800)

Tough to find value right now at power forward but the Knicks seem to belooking to see what they have with Harkless after getting him at the NBA tradedeadline.  He started in their last gameand played 30 minutes. He has scored over 20 fantasy points in three straightgames and Kevin Knox is questionable. If Knox is ruled out Harkless should havesafe minutes tonight with a cheap price tag.

Center

Kristaps Porzingis – Stud – ($9,000)

Porzingis has been on a tear over the last month, seeing a usage percentageof 29 percent and averaging 59 fantasy points per 36 minutes. New Orleans is thefourth fastest team in the NBA this season. Derrick Favors has been starting atcenter for the Pelicans, if that is the case again tonight Porzingis would havehalf a foot height advantage over the smaller Favors.

Myles Turner – Mid Tier – ($5,500)

He has gone over 30 minutes in three out of his last four games and in those four games, he has yet to score under 30 fantasy points. Turner has played the Bucks three times already this year and, in those games, Turner is averaging 35 fantasy points. Tonight is a tough NBA slate as I think DraftKings did a very good job on its pricing, limiting some of the player’s upside, but at this price Turner still has upside.

James Johnson – Value – ($4,700)

Over the Bulls last seven games, they are the fourth-worst team in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have given up the second-most fantasy points to centers over the course of the season and the fifth most over the past month. Johnson’s price has gone down even though he has scored over 25 fantasy points in eight of his ten games with the Timberwolves.

This nine-game NBA slate is one that we may need to wait to build lineups until near lock. Boston has several players that have their status up in the air, Detroit could be extremely thin in the backcourt, but if Knight plays, you’re going to want to have some exposure to him. Then there is a possibility that D’Angelo Russell sits in the second half of a back to back for the Wolves. You’re going to want to make sure you tune into the Discord chat room with myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff as we go through the injury news that comes in and further breakdown our favorite plays of the night. Thanks for reading and good luck!

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