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In this article, I will break down each position with my top stud, middle tier, and value plays for this NBA DFS slate. I will be referring to DraftKings on pricing. Most picks are for GPP/Tournaments, some would also be viable for cash games.
We have a six-game NBA slate tonight that we get to sort through. It’s towards the end of the year so any team with nothing to play for is risky right now. On top of all that we have a ton of players that are injured or could be resting up for playoffs. We have a ton of injury news to watch heading into this evening and the Miami Heat is a major part of that. It is also the second leg of a back to back for Dallas so I wouldn’t be surprised if Luka or Porzingis would sit tonight, so tune into the Discord chat rooms with myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff as we breakdown any injury news that comes in, and further evaluate our favorite plays.
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Point Guard
De’AaronFox – Stud – ($7,800)
Sacramento is trying to make a playoff push here towards the end of the season and I want to target players in meaningful games. Fox has a fantastic matchup here against New Orleans who was allowed the most fantasy point to point guards in the NBA this season. The Pelicans are the third-fastest team in the league and the total of this game is at 235 which is the highest on the slate.
Brandon Knight – Mid-tier – ($4,900)
Detroit is one of the more beat up teams in the NBA right now and I really like this play if Bruce Brown sits. When all the Pistons that are out off the floor including Brown, Knight has the second-highest usage on the team at 28.2 percent and is averaging 48.5 fantasy points per 36 minutes. Over the last five games, the 76ers are the worst team in the NBA in defensive efficiency.
FrankNtilikina – Value – ($3,200)
This is a tournament play only and I’m only on him if we get word he is starting. The reason I think he could start is Payton really struggled last night, resulting in Ntilikina seeing 30 minutes and recording a double-double. The Hawks are the third-worst team in defensive efficiency, seventh-fastest team, and have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to point guards over the last month of the NBA season.
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell – Stud – ($7,300)
Shooting guard is thin on tonight’s NBA slate and I’ll be spending downif Jimmy Butler is out. Mitchell should be a good option as his price hasdropped $800 in a week. He should see a combination of Gilgeous-Alexander orSchroeder defense which I am a big fan of. He is also averaging 46 fantasypoints in two previous meetings against Oklahoma City.
Bogdan Bogdanovic – Mid-tier – ($5,100)
This game is my favorite on tonight’s NBA slate due to what is at stake for both teams trying to make a playoff push and Memphis lost last night. Bogdanovic is very consistent for his price scoring nearly 25 fantasy points per night. He does have a high ceiling as he just went off for 52.5 fantasy points. Facing the third-fastest team in the league, a lot of these Kings players are underpriced, as I like Buddy Hield in this spot too.
Kendrick Nunn – Value – ($4,800)
More on this play if Jimmy Butler is confirmed out as Nunn has a usage percentage of 23.6 percent and is averaging 40.3 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Butler off the floor. Charlotte is the fifth-worst defensive team in the NBA this season, this is a great spot for Nunn if he plays, and Butler is out.
Small Forward
Stud
I’m not a fan of any of these top-priced small forwards on tonight’s NBA slate as I think Jimmy Butler sits out and I’m off Tobias with Richardson and maybe Embiid coming back. I won’t have anyone at small forward from $8,000 and above.
Shae Gilgeous-Alexander – Mid-tier – ($6,300)
Just a week ago Shae was $1,100 higher priced than he is now, and he’s only missed one game. He is tied for twelfth in the NBA in minutes per game this season. The game before he got hurt, he had just put up 42.5 fantasy points against Detroit. The Thunder are only one game behind the Jazz for the fourth seed and home-court advantage in the first round so this is a big game for both sides.
Caleb Martin – Value – ($4,000)
Martin has been on the NBA squad just under a month for Charlotte, but he has started to impress. In his 17 games with the team so far Martin is shooting an astounding 55 percent from three-point range. He played 37 minutes in Charlotte’s last game against the Hawks and scored 41.5 fantasy points. Martin was already earning himself more minutes with the Hornets and he could’ve solidified even more with his last performance.
Power Forward
Christian Wood – Stud – ($8,100)
Wood already had about the safest minutes in the NBA, now they become even safer with Henson being ruled out. I like this play a lot more if Embiid remains out which I think he will since he has yet to be fully cleared. With Henson and these other Piston players, out off the floor Wood sees a usage rate of 30 percent and is averaging 49 fantasy points per 36 minutes.
De’Andre Hunter – Mid-tier – ($5,300)
The Hawks are continuing to run their starters out for big minutes asHunter has only seen under 30 minutes once in his last 15 games. He has playedthe Knicks twice this season and is averaging 38 fantasy points in those twogames. I like Hunter and Harrison Barnes in this spot as both are among thesafest minutes on tonight’s NBA slate.
Thon Maker – Value – ($3,100)
With Henson out, Maker is going to have to play big minutes here and should be able to at least accidentally get 20 fantasy points if he sees 30 minutes. Maker is averaging 31 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Henson off the floor, along with a usage rate of 18.6 percent for a near-minimum salary player. The 76ers are also the worst NBA team in terms of defensive efficiency over the last five games.
Center
Julius Randle – Stud – ($7,800)
After a tough night, last night against Washington and is 22 percent owned, I think he gets overlooked in this spot against Atlanta. A great matchup against Atlanta who has allowed the third-most fantasy points to power forwards and the second most to centers over the course of this NBA season. Atlanta is also the third-worst defensive efficient team in the league, so I like Randle to bounce back from last night at lower ownership.
Richuan Holmes – Mid-tier – ($5,000)
It’s now or never for both teams as they push for the NBA playoffs is heating up and these two are tied at just three and a half games behind Memphis for the eighth seed. Holmes hasn’t seen above 20 minutes since returning from his injury, but this is the spot I think he gets 25 or more minutes as it was a shoulder injury and not a lower-body injury. He gets an amazing matchup against the third-fastest team in the league.
Bismack Biyombo – Value – ($4,000)
Biyombo has scored at least 24.5 fantasy points in four straight games now and Hernangomez has been said to be dropped from the rotation, which should solidify him for at least 20 minutes. Charlotte typically rides the hot hand at the center on any given night, but I give the advantage to Biyombo who should mostly face the Miami second unit. Odds are I won’t be going this cheap at the center on this NBA slate unless it’s for Maker, but Biyombo and Bobby Portis are great options for you to be contrarian.
Wrapping up this six-game NBA slate that we have tonight I want the starters and pieces of the games that are still important. My main target tonight is clearly the New Orleans at Sacramento game along with Utah at Denver is also a very important game but may not be as intriguing from a fantasy standpoint, but I still see some underpriced guys in that game. The Heat have Butler and Nunn who are both questionable and as mentioned earlier. I wouldn’t be surprised if Porzingis or Luka sat out on the second half of a back to back, so make sure you check out the Discord chat rooms as myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff filter through the injury news and further breakdown our top targets for the evening. Thanks for reading and good luck!
