billyr011199@gmail.com In this article I will break down each position with my top stud, middle tier, and value plays for this NBA DFS slate. On tonight’s smaller slate I will not reach all three categories for each position. I will be referring to DraftKings on pricing. Most picks are for GPP/Tournaments, some would also be viable for cash games.
We have a little four-game NBA slate on our hands tonight with four of the eight teams playing tonight ranking in the bottom ten in terms of pace this season. Lebron is already ruled out, Embiid will likely be out as well. Two big names already out for a small slate but more injury news could trickle in throughout the day, so make sure you tune into the Discord chat rooms where myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff further break down our favorite plays and any injury news that surfaces throughout the day.
Join our Gold Membership and receive one on one coaching in our private discord chat, access to cheat sheets, access to projection models, and all of our PRO DFS and Sports Betting articles.
Point Guard
Malcolm Brogdon– Stud – ($7,300)
I like this play a lot more if Victor Oladipo gets ruled out with his sore back. Brogdon is seeing a usage percentage of 27% with Oladipo and Jeremy Lamb off the court this season. Portland is a friendly matchup as well as they have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to point guards and rank the fourth-worst team in defensive efficiency throughout the NBA season.
Dennis Schroder – Mid-tier – ($5,500)
This is just one of those plays that are too cheap. Schroder is seeing right around 30 minutes per game often being north of that. Sacramento isn’t a great matchup but Schroder, but in two games against Sacramento this season he is averaging 35 fantasy points per game. He’s one of the candidates for NBA sixth man of the year hard not to look his way at this price.
AlexCaruso – Value – ($3,400)
Lebron has already been ruled out for tonight, opening minutes at point guard for Caruso. With Lebron off the floor, this season Caruso leads the Lakers in minutes played. Rondo should also be an excellent value play in this spot. Golden State has given up the third-most fantasy points to point guards this NBA season, while also ranking the sixth-worst team in team defensive efficiency. Either of these two Laker guards could be in for a smash spot with Lebron absent.
Shooting Guard
CJ McCollum – Stud – ($9,000)
McCollum has been on a tear without Damian Lillard as he has yet to score under 50 DraftKings points with Lillard out. In the past month with Lillard off the floor, McCollum is seeing a massive usage percentage of 38%. He hasn’t seen under 37 minutes in his last four games either. The Pacers aren’t a good matchup but with McCollum’s huge number of minutes and usage I’ll roll him out again. It’s a small NBA slate with value and I don’t think a lot of people will spend up for McCollum facing the Pacers.
Josh Richardson – Mid-tier – ($5,300)
If Embiid does indeed get ruled out I will most likely end up with at least two to three 76ers in my lineups. Richardson sees the usage of 26.3% with Embiid and Simmons both off the floor. This isn’t a matchup play, it’s a price and lots of usage to be claimed on this team due to injuries play. The Knicks rank in the middle of the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency.
Small Forward
Tobias Harris – Stud – ($7,500)
Much like Josh Richardson and all the other 76er players, there is a lot of usage to be had on this team unless Embiid magically finds a way to play after suffering a shoulder sprain last night. Tobias ranks second on the 76ers in usage percentage with Embiid and Simmons off the floor at 26.8%. There is just simply lots of usage to be had on this team and you want to find players from this team that will soak up the usage. The Knicks have also surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to power forwards this NBA season, Harris should see minutes at power forward with Horford sliding down to play center.
Tj Warren – Mid Tier – ($6,000)
This is a much better play if Victor Oladipo sits but I like Warren regardless. He is second on the team in usage at 25.2 percent when Oladipo and Lamb are off the floor this season. Warren is also looking at a nice matchup against Portland who has given up the third-most fantasy points to power forwards in the NBA this season. Portland is also the fourth-worst team in defensive efficiency this season, so this is a good matchup for Warren, and he could become an elite play if Oladipo gets confirmed out.
Power Forward
Al Horford – Mid-tier- ($5,200)
I hate to seem like I’m on repeat here but we have a small NBA slate, so much like Richarson and Tobias Harris, Horford is a great play for the same reasons. Horford has a usage rate of 23.2 percent and is averaging 43 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Embiid and Simmons off the floor. Mike Scott is also an honorable mention here for Philly as he has seen the second-most minutes on the team with those two players out.
Kyle Kuzma – Value – ($3,900)
With Lebron out, Kuzma is one of the primary beneficiaries. He has seen the third-most minutes on the team, a usage percentage of 26.3% that’s second on the team behind only Anthony Davis, and he’s averaging 34 fantasy points per 36 minutes with LeBron off the court. As mentioned previously Golden State is also one of the worst team defenses in the NBA this season.
Center
Anthony Davis – Stud – ($10,300)
This will come as a surprise to no one as when Lebron is out everyone knows and will flock to Davis right away. They flock to Davis for good reason though as he leads the Lakers in usage without Lebron at 33.7%. Davis should be able to do anything he wants against Golden State, they have no one that can match up with him. His ownership will probably be above 50%, so for tournaments, you can fade him at your own risk as you will have a huge leg up on the field if he busts. Golden State as mentioned before is the sixth-worst team in the NBA when it comes to team defense.
Mitchell Robinson – Mid Tier – ($5,000)
It appears as if the youth movement in New York has started, as Robinson played more minutes than Julius Randle last night in a close game. Robinson has two games in a row of over 35 fantasy points and two games in a row of 25 or more minutes. The 76ers will also be without Embiid defense to top it off, which makes me like this play even more. This is around the time of year in the NBA that the tank off begins and it showed last night in the Knicks game as in a tightly contested game Julius Randle stayed on the bench for all the fourth quarter. Lots of risk with this play though as the Knicks rotation is one that Is never safe.
In this small four-game NBA slate I’m trying to attack the teams with lots of usage up in the air, or teams that are playing the lousier defensive teams. That is the reason a lot of my plays today were multiple players from the same team. It’s kind of a funky slate as three of the top four priced players will be out. Its possible more injury news could be released, so make sure to check out the Discord chat rooms with myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff as we break down any injury news and further discuss our top plays. Thank you for reading my article. Good luck!
