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In this article, I will break down each position with my top stud, middle tier, and value plays for this NBA DFS slate. I will be referring to DraftKings on pricing. Most picks are for GPP/Tournaments, some would also be viable for cash games.
Tonight, we have six-game NBA slate on our hands, with four teams on the second leg of a back to backs. I’m just going to get things started by saying Luka is only $10,200 tonight and he is in a smash spot facing the Hawks. There aren’t very many players with a questionable tag going into this evening’s games. Hopefully, we don’t have any news break, but in case we do check out the Discord chat room with the WinDaily staff as we further breakdown our picks and injury news.
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Point Guard
Luka Doncic – Stud – ($10,200)
I spoke too soon yesterday saying we probably won’t see Luka at a lower price this season, his price in this spot just makes me scratch my head, almost too good to be true. Feels like a trap. If it ends up being a trap DraftKings will be taking all my money tomorrow. The Hawks have given up the most fantasy points as a team this NBA season, ranking 3rd worst in defensive efficiency to back that up. The over/under in this game is a massive 239. Given the price and matchup, Luka is a lock for me tonight.
Malik Monk – Mid-tier – ($5,100)
Charlotte sees a +5 pace in this match. Brooklyn ranks 10th fastest in the NBA this season. In the past month, Monk leads the Hornets in usage with a usage rate of 26.7%. For a guy leading his team in usage, this price is too cheap. Lastly, I will add, Brooklyn is surrendering the 6th most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Kendrick Nunn – Value – ($4,500)
No matter how you look at it Cleveland has surrendered the most fantasy points to point guards not only through the course of the NBA season, but they have also given up the most in the past month. Cleveland is also the 2nd worst team in defensive efficiency this season. To put the cherry on top, with Tyler Herro off the court this season, Nunn leads the team in usage percentage at 26.1%.
Shooting Guard
Zach Lavine – Stud – ($8,900)
Chicago somehow is going to be down another player as Kornet is doubtful. Lavine almost has sole control of this offense right now with a 33.1% usage rate, and he is scoring 53 fantasy points per 36 minutes with all these players off the floor. Phoenix isn’t the sexiest matchup in the NBA, but I like to attack Devin Booker’s defense. With the spread only being one point in this game I like Lavine in this close matchup.
Donovan Mitchell – Mid-tier – ($7,400)
The matchup is about as good as they come as Mitchell faces the Rockets in Utah. Houston has also given up the 3rd most fantasy points to shooting guards on the NBA season. Mitchell was 20% owned last night’s slate and burnt everyone bad, typically DFS players won’t go back to that player especially the next night. His usage is 31.7% in the past four weeks and in two previous matchups against the Rockets, he is averaging 46 fantasy points. Mitchell should bounce back from a poor performance last night with this matchup today.
Cam Reddish – Value – ($4,100)
This game is expected to have the highest total on today’s NBA slate with a total of 239, so I want pieces from this contest. Hunter already ruled out for Atlanta I think Reddish starts at small forward here. Atlanta isn’t shy about running their starters big minutes as several players near 40 minutes recently. Reddish saw 37 minutes in the first game after the all-star break so 30 minutes shouldn’t be a problem if he starts.
Small Forward
Caris Levert – Stud – ($7,000)
Over the past month, Levert has taken over the Nets offense without Kyrie, earning a usage rate of 30.3% over that time to lead the team. In Brooklyn’s previous game Levert shot nearly 30 times to prove that. No more restrictions as he now has seen over 30 minutes in four straight games. Charlotte is the 5th worst team in defensive efficiency this NBA season. Small forward is not an east spot to figure out tonight, but Levert should have a pretty safe floor regardless.
Kevin Huerter – Mid-tier – ($5,400)
Not a usage monster by any means, but if I’m playing Luka over Trae Young, I must get exposure to this game elsewhere. I feel comfortable playing him due to the high volume of minutes Atlanta’s starters play. I see Huerter being guarded by Seth Curry and that isn’t a defender that scares me. With small forward seeming thin on tonight’s NBA slate, I’ll take Huerter’s minutes and be happy.
Danuel House Jr. – Value – ($4,300)
I don’t love small forward this NBA slate unless some sort of injury news breaks, but House Jr. screams value. Just five games ago He was priced at $6,000 on DraftKings, so he sees a significant price drop here against Utah. House Jr has fared well against the Jazz in two meetings this season averaging 36.5 fantasy points in those games.
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Stud – ($11,200)
It’s starting to become a rarity that Giannis scores under 60 fantasy points. In the past month with everyone, healthy Giannis is still seeing a usage percentage of 37.4% and averaging 73 fantasy points per 36 minutes in that month as well. In the most recent matchup with Philadelphia, Giannis scored 72.5 fantasy points. Giannis is one of the best players in the NBA if not the best, you can make an argument for him any given night.
Thaddeus Young – Mid-tier – ($5,600)
I still want pieces from this thin Chicago team and Thaddeus Young is the leader in minutes with all these players out. Young sees a usage percentage at 21.7% and is scoring 37 fantasy points per 36 minutes with these players absent. I have him projected at 36 minutes for this game as Kornet is listed as doubtful to add to the list of injuries. The Bulls have the most injuries in the NBA resulting in some value and players receiving large minutes.
Cedi Osman – Value – ($3,900)
I have a feeling that it’s possible for Kevin Love to sit out this game so keep an eye on that. If Love doesn’t sit, I don’t like Osman as much in this matchup with Miami. Osman has a safe floor at his price and the Cavaliers only have two healthy small forwards healthy right now so the minutes should remain safe as well. None of the value on this NBA slate is safe unless we get some injury news, maybe that news will be Kevin Love.
Center
Deandre Ayton – Stud – ($8,700)
Big men against Chicago has been a target all year long as they lead the NBA in fantasy points given up to centers on the season. If we don’t get the news that Ayton is out or limited on this back to back, I’ll fire him up. Chicago is extremely banged up as they only have 3 healthy bodies to play both frontcourt positions. Ayton should dominate this game with Chicago’s 3rd and 4th string centers guarding him.
Kristaps Porzingis – Mid-tier – ($8,000)
I know this isn’t exactly a middle-tier play but personally I will be spending up at center tonight and most likely playing two centers. Porzingis does hold a 30% usage rate over the past month, and he faces Atlanta the team that has given up the most fantasy points to centers over that same time frame. Atlanta is fast and plays minimal defense, so much like Luka, this is a dream matchup for Porzingis.
Christiano Felicio – Value – ($3,000)
Tournament plays only here for Felicio as I think he sees a lot of minutes as Chicago needs someone to match up with Deandre Ayton. Kornet is also considered doubtful so the Bulls will only have 8 active players tonight. No flashy usage stat here just the simple fact that he could play 30 minutes and with a minimum price tag he should hit value. 7x or even 8x wouldn’t surprise me.
Tonight’s six-game NBA slate has several high priced players so unless the news breaks a lot of DFS players will be trying to reach for value. You want to get exposure to the Dallas at Atlanta game, and Houston at Utah, as those are the two highest totals on the slate. Keep an eye on some guys sitting on back to backs I think Kevin Love is a strong candidate to sit tonight, so don’t forget to check out the Discord chat rooms, where we breakdown key news and further discuss our picks for the slate. Enjoy your weekend and thanks for reading. Good luck!
