DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
It was yet another winner for DeepDiveGolf and WinDaily at the Zurich Classic. Nick Hardy and Davis Riley scored their debut victory and got the win done for us at 45/1. It was nearly another Trans-Atlantic double, with Calum Hill (90/1) finishing just one shot outside the playoff in Japan on the DP World Tour. We secured a full place payout from him as well as Top 20 place money. We also had Wyndham Clark and Beau Hossler in our selections, who lead after each of the first three rounds. Ultimately, they finished up in 3rd fading slightly in the final round. Again, it was another full place payout. What a great way to enter what feels a fantastic opportunity to target with our Mexico Open Picks!
The Jon Rahm Conversation
It seems apropos to begin this week with a paragraph on what to do about Jon Rahm. The defending champion here arrives in even better form than he did last year. He has won an astonishing 43% of his starts since October 2022. And, you can argue that this week is an even weaker field.
On the flip side, I think it is difficult to argue there is value in the +270 currently on offer. Inevitably, it becomes a conversation of Rahm vs the field. If anything, he is priced fairly in the market at best. The end of the day, this is still a PGA Tour event with a number of challengers capable of winning an event like this on their day. There are 143 other golfers playing this week. Rebounding for another victory after winning a major is not the easiest feat. In that, I prefer the field for our Mexico Open picks from a betting standpoint. If Rahm wins at extremely short odds, then c’est la vie.
For DFS purposes, I will be at field average with 40% of my lineups built with Rahm. Again, at his DFS price he needs to realistically needs to finish Top 3 to justify the value. Yes, he is miles ahead of the rest of the field and has one of the highest floors. Anything less than a Top 10 would be a shock. Hence, he requires inclusion in some capacity. I just will not be overweight on him and will hope that one of our other charges can take the title.
Course Analysis for our Mexico Open Picks
Vidanta Vallarta golf course once again plays host this week. With the inaugural event last year, much has been made that there is a lack of data entering the week. I more come at this from a perspective that we really know everything we need to about this track.
The resort style course plays as a long par 71 at 7,456 yards. Several holes had distance added in the sole defense to PGA Tour players. Consequently, the Par 4 and Par 5s average length ranked as the longest on the PGA Tour in 2022 at 496 yards. However, the greens ranked as some of the easiest around the green. It is Paspalum grass tee to green. Generally, this sturdy grass is often in seaside locations and is resistant to salt air. As such, it tends to play slower. This will prevent rollout on drives and on the greens particularly.
The simple answer for our Mexico Open picks is Driving Distance and Approach 200+ yards (with a further weighting added for Approach 175-200).
In last year’s rendition, of the top 14 players on the leaderboard, 11 ranked in the top 24 for driving distance for the week. Further, 9 of the top 14 players finished in the top 20 for driving distance and 4 of the top 7 ranked in the top 10 for driving distance. We also find a resulting increase in long approach proximity. 35% of shots will occur from 200+ yards, with another big increase for 175-200 yards. This is hugely disproportionate to PGA Tour averages. It should be factored in accordingly.
Course Comps for our Mexico Open Picks
With paspalum grass a rather unique feature of this track, we want to look to other long courses using this grass type. This invariably ties into other coastal and tropical tournaments. This is additionally beneficial, as the strength of field (or lack thereof) tends to mirror that found this week.
The leading course of those is the Corales Golf Club, host of the Corales Puntacana Championship. This course should feature heavily in your Mexico Open Picks. Other correlated form can be found at the Grand Reserve Golf Club, host of the Puerto Rico Open. Finally, the Bermuda Championship host of Port Royal Golf Course should be considered.
I’d also suggest, given the strength of field, to consider a few of the Korn Ferry Tour events. The Bahamas tournaments (Great Abaco Classic and Great Exuma Classic), Astara Golf Championship, and LECOM Suncoast Classic should all be considred.
Weather
A very brief weather report this week. There is little to no wind forecast all week. Mornings will tend to play a little easier, with winds increasing mildly in the afternoon and greens also firming as the day goes on. However, winds will be in single digits all week and scoring will be lower than in 2022.
Current forecast is here: https://www.windy.com/20.682/-105.285?gfs,20.095,-105.285,8
Mexico Open Picks – Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
Wyndham Clark
2.5pts WIN +2000 MGM
2.5pts Top 10 +190 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Nicolai Hojgaard – Your Mexico Open Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +3000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +280 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Patrick Rodgers
2pts WIN +3000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +280 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Alex Smalley
2pts WIN +6500 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +470 Fanduel
or 2pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Will Gordon
2pts WIN +7000 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +490 Fanduel
or 2pts E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Joseph Bramlett
2pts WIN +6600 MGM
2pts Top 10 +500 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Martin Trainer – Your Mexico Open Picks Best Longshot
0.5pts WIN +20000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +30000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel/MGM or +800 Bet365
And
2pts Top 40 +260 Fanduel
DFS Core: Wyndham Clark, Nicolai Hojgaard, Martin Trainer
Thank you reading our 2023 Mexico Open picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
