DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Before getting into our betting tips for the Mexico Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Vidanta Vallarta, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the Mexico Open golf betting tips below.
You can find my latest profit and loss tracker here.
As always, the honourable mentions who just missed out on our betting card at the Mexico Open. I heavily considered giving J.J. Spaun a third crack at 100/1, after two missed cuts when tipped at the Genesis Invitational and WM Phoenix Open. His approach play has really been excellent of late. He does his best work for with the long irons. Although he should benefit from these slower paspalum surfaces, his putting has been woeful of late.
Nate Lashley and Brandon Wu are both respected given their outstanding form on paspalum comp courses. Those correlations have been well noted this time by bookmakers and they are far too short to be backed. Keith Mitchell has looked better recently, his combination of long and accurate driving complimented by superb long irons and a 2nd on debut at Corales Puntacana. He was tough to leave out, but a price closer to 35/1 had been expected.
Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
Posted in WinDaily Discord Mon 19 Feb at 8am ET
Nicolai Hojgaard
2.5u E/W +1800 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Thomas Detry – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +2800 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Davis Thompson
2u E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Victor Perez
1u E/W +10000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +425 (Bet365)
Vince Whaley
0.5u E/W +10000 (Bet365/William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +160 (Bet365)
Kevin Chappell
0.5u +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +650 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +225 (Bet365)
Martin Trainer – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u +25000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +700 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +230 (Bet365)
Mexico Open Betting Player Profiles
Nicolai Hojgaard
Despite being the very obvious class in this field, Tony Finau is an easy fade for me given how dreadful his putter has looked. He should benefit from these easier to read and slower greens, but a price nearer to 12/1 would’ve been a fairer reflection of his current form. Consequently, the price on Hojgaard at 18/1 looks generous in this decidedly weak field.
It is quite clear this is the type of test that should suit Nicolai’s eye. 33rd on debut last year came despite losing strokes both putting and ATG but gaining ball-striking. He was a winner on debut at the highly correlated Al Hamra in 2022, backing that up with a 13th in 2023 there. Further DP World Tour links can be found in the 3rd at the Czech Masters and 5th at the Italian Open, both on bomber paradises.
He also went very close to winning for us when tipped at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2023, finishing just one stroke behind Matt Wallace at another highly correlated course. Wallace actually provides a nice link, having taken the runner-up spot for us at Jumeirah Golf Estates for the DP World Tour Championship, where we managed a 1-2 with Hojgaard taking the win.
Obviously, Hojgaard has continued to elevate his game since. The recent 7th in a strong Dubai Desert Classic field is another track for the strong drivers. Another recent runner-up at the long and tough Torrey Pines just further indicates he has more than ample talent to be a PGA Tour winner soon. Given his excellent performance on paspalum greens and a weak field, this week presents a prime opportunity.
Thomas Detry – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
I’ll openly admit that even I winced when putting this selection up. Detry once again found a way to lose a golf tournament, throwing away a potential victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Fortunately for us, that handed our 125/1 selection Matthieu Pavon victory.
He did the same in the aforementioned 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship. Detry shot an even par final round, losing 1.43 strokes to the field, when looking a likely contender and finishing 8th.
Here in lies the problem. His form at that highly correlated course now reads 33-33-13-15-8. Additionally, he finished 9th on debut at Al Hamra and a 38th at El Cardonal came when in indifferent form. Instead, he arrives here after being bang in contention at Pebble Beach, a 20th at the Farmers Insurance Open, and 28th when last seen in Phoenix.
Yes, I have severe concerns about his ability to close out a victory. The fact remains he undoubtedly has the ability to win on either the PGA or DP World Tour. The big question comes to the 6 inches between the ears.
Unfortunately, I simply can’t avoid the strength of course correlations and recent form. In many ways, I hope he either opens up such a substantial lead that he can’t throw it away or, and perhaps better, he finds himself 4 strokes off the lead come Sunday and shoots a low final round. He may need to fall into victory to finally get the monkey off his back.
Davis Thompson
A little longer in our Mexico Open betting tips, the sophomore Davis Thompson can be found as long as 45/1. This talented youngster burst onto the scene finishing 9th in his first event of his rookie PGA Tour season, followed by a 12th two starts later, and a runner-up in January. The middle portion of the year proved a little more difficult as he found his feet, before re-establishing his credentials in the fall.
Included in that was a 15th at El Cardonal, where he managed a 66 and 67 without putting up an extremely low round which would’ve been required for victory that week. Given he is only in the start of his sophomore year, a lack of data is the many reason you won’t find further correlated course form. Diving into the Korn Ferry Tour, you can look to the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic for paspalum form. He was the first round leader that week, fading a little over the weekend but still finishing an admirable 12th.
Thompson has again had an excellent start to the year. 21st at the low scoring American Express was followed by a 15th in a strong WM Phoenix Open field. The approach game is in excellent touch, and this should suit better than other courses with his long irons the key. Davis Thompson is 4th in this field over the last 12 months for SG: App from over 200+ yards. he looks a fabulous bet at anything 40/1 or longer.
Victor Perez
Will we screaming “Allez Les Bleus” once again come Sunday, as another 100/1+ golfer charges to victory? I certainly hope so, and I believe Perez has the skills and experience to be the name who does so.
Undoubtedly, the performance of Pavon to break the duck of French PGA Tour winners has seen inspired French performances across the Atlantic. Do note Martin Trainer did secure a win on the PGA Tour, but that was when flying under the USA flag. More on him shortly.
Perez profile is an interesting one to delve into. In his two starts for 2024, he has essentially being doing the opposite of his baseline. That is, he is currently putting poorly (losing -2.85 and -1.60 strokes putting). However, he has now gained strokes on approach in his last 6 tournaments and SG: OTT in 5/6. It is a similar statistical profile he produced prior to his 2022 Dutch Open win.
Victor Perez achieved his biggest victory to date in a Rolex Series event, winning the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. That is played on paspalum greens, as is the Ras Al Khaimah Championship where he finished 13th in his one appearance at Al Hamra. He was also 8th when tipped by us at the DP World Tour Championship, where Hojgaard and Wallace finished 1-2. Other correlated courses can be found in the Italian Open (9th and 3rd) and Czech Masters (23rd and 11th).
Perez can sink some monster clutch putts when contention. A few of those this week and his current ball-striking numbers suggest he will look fantastic value at 100/1.
Vince Whaley
Before heading into our extreme long-shot betting picks at the Mexico Open, I have some time for Vince Whaley this week.
An impressive end to 2023 was marked by finishing 28th or better in 6/7 tournaments to close out the season. On the face of it, it has appeared to be a sluggish start to 2024. However, the good ball-striking has remained and he has been woeful with the putter. A return to his favoured paspalum is beneficial in that regard. Approach from 200+ yards is also quite easily his best approach distance.
Whaley has quietly excellent form on the comp courses. There is the 9th and 15th at the Puerto Rico Open. There is also a treble of 28th place finishes at Corales Puntacana. Diving further into history, a 2nd in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour with just his second professional tournament start in 2019 also catches the eye.
Kevin Chappell
If there was ever a tournament to speculate on long-shots, it may well be at an event like this one. To kick off, a return to Kevin Chappell who we have previously tipped at the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Chappell has finished 15th and 16th in his last two starts at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2022 and 2023. He also boasts a finish of 15th at the 2023 Puerto Rico Open and was 24th in this event last year as well. That was pleasing being his only appearance at this course. If you really want to deep-dive, you can go all the was back to 2009 where he finished 11th in the Mexico Open and 4th in 2010 at the Panama Championship four months later.
Most recently, he finished 49th at the WM Phoenix Open but it is the start prior which is more intriguing. A 21st at the Panama Championship there was a break from some consistently poor play in 2023 outside the three paspalum events.
As such, a speculative play at odds as long as 225/1 seems a more than fair price.
Martin Trainer – Mexico Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
I did promise we would return to speak about Martin Trainer, as he rounds out our Mexico Open Betting Tips available as long as 300/1.
As mentioned, Martin Trainer won in his rookie PGA Tour season at the correlated Puerto Rico Open in 2019. He also won in Mexico on the Korn Ferry Tour, notching up a win in 2018. Perhaps the paspalum correlation has much to do with spending his 2014-2016 years on the PGA Tour Latinoamerica.
More recently on the PGA Tour, he has achieved a 7th and 2nd at the Corales Puntacana Championship in 2022 and 2023 respectively. A 15th at El Cardonal in the Worldwide technology Championship a few months ago in November 2023 should have come as no surprise. Neither should the 11th he achieved at this event in 2022.
Much like Chappell, the recent form is perhaps the most pleasing in that he finished 8th last week at the Astara Golf Championship in Bogota Colombia. He looks far too long in current markets as a true paspalum specialist, and is a great shout for a Top 40 and maybe a sneaky Top 20 or better.
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