Steven Polardi 
Mayakoba Golf Classic Ownership Projections
Pelotas de Golf? No necesitamos pelotas de golf apestosas. Viva Golf!
Translation: Golf balls? We don’t need no stinking golf balls. Long Live Golf! Enough Spanish lessons, lets get to the Mayakoba Golf Classic Ownership Projections.
This weeks tourney is the Mayakoba Golf Classic on a picturesque resort in Mexico. This is a stronger field than normal, as pointed out last night with Michael and Sia’s live stream, some of these golfers are trying to qualify for the Masters. Joel was absent due to an anniversary schedule issue, he had planned on blowing off his date with his wife, he changed his mind after the surgeon successfully removed the rolling pin from the uh…orifice.
Michael managed to cut a deal with Manscape after they saw his mustache, so kudos to him. The only person not happy with the deal is Grandma Marie, as Michael affectionately refers to her, only problem is her name is Mary. Michael’s a gambler, he figures 50-50 on getting grandma’s name right is a break even proposition. She received a brand new third gen Manscape kit with all the trimmings, had no idea what to do with it, she finally decided to try it out on her…cat. In a related note she is offering a reward for the return of her kitty who disappeared, it’s a gray tom, small, and is walking in a “peculiar“ way. Those of you interested in tickling your testes can get 20% off at Manscape just by using promo code WinDaily. Trust me, your wife, partner or other species will thank you in all kinds of ways.
I use contrarian algorithms to spot high percentage/ leverage players for GPP. One of the biggest keys to this is ownership % of the players. Let’s take a look at the Mayakoba Golf Classic Ownership Projections.
The top golfer by a mile is Justin Thomas, currently at 31% ownership, it may close at 34% or better, at that percentage he is a full fade for me, even if he is the best golfer by metrics in this field. If he wins, he beats me, I can live with that in a tourney that has seen a host of first time winners. Far below him in second and at a hefty ownership is Russel Henley at 22.7%. He is followed by Abraham Ancer at 21.5%, I really like Ancer, so does everyone else, I will be reducing my exposure to him based on %. Close behind is Harris English at 21.2%, he is a safe, and very chalky play. Corey Conners comes in at 18.3%. Last night Sia mentioned starting in the 9 K range and skipping the top tier, I am in agreement, there is a lot of value in the 9 and 8K range without paying up for heavy chalk. There will be some players, not heard of that often, moving up the boards. Will Zalatoris is next at 17.3 % and I will have him in play. Surprisingly Chez Reavie is next at 16.3%, I believe it’s salary relief driven, Victor Holland follows at 16.2%. Joel Dahmen is 15.2%, a neutral %, he can score and is a mild risk, Brian Harman comes in at 14.7%, Joaquin Niemann is 13.8% and an industry darling this week, Adam Long is tied with Harold Varner lll at 13.2%, Brian Stuard is 12.7%, I like him although at 6900 salary his ownership is high at that price point, Daniel Berger is next at 12.4%, Brooks Koepka, one of the studs is a reasonable 12%, if you like your golfers knocking back shots of tequila right before their tourney starts. Sebastian Munoz is 11.6%, Brendan Todd is 11.4%, he is popular although I won’t be on him that much this week, maybe a sprinkle in a big GPP, Denny “putts” McCarthy is 11.3%, Russel Knox is next at 10.7%. Looking at the board so far you can clearly see that Chez Reavie, Adam Long, and Russel Knox are being used a lot as secondary players, that’s good for us to find value at a lower %. Billie Horschel is 10.1% owned.
Golfers Under 10% Ownership:
Kevin Streelman and Carlos Ortiz are 9.8% owned, I will have Ortiz on my teams. Tyler Duncan is 9.7%, Adam Hadwin is 9.6%, Scott Piercy is 9.2%, Keegan Bradley is 8.5%, my model likes him, Emiliano Grillo is 7.7% and one of THE best values on the slate right now, Vaughn Taylor is 7.6%, and BEHIND him is Rickie Fowler at 7.3%, sorry Mary, Pat Perez is also at 7.3%, Henrik Norlander is 7% and BEHIND him is Tony Finau at 6.8%, Tony’s problem is he is 10,700 in salary, yet he only has a 18.6% chance to be in the #1 DK lineup, compared to JT at 11,400 and a 38% chance to make DKs #1 lineup, what that tells you is JT’s salary should be 13,000, maybe that’s why everyone is on him, Tony is a perfect contrarian option/ pivot to JT, albeit an expensive one. Charles Howell lll is 6.5% and safe, and he’s boring as far as scoring, Brice Garnett is also 6.5%, then we drop to Mark Hubbard at 6.1%, Kyle Stanley is 5.4% and a sneaky, somewhat risky play. Patton Kizzire is 5% and a sprinkle in high GPP for me.
Golfers Under 5% Ownership
Gary Woodland is 4.98%, Doug Ghim and Sepp Straka are at 4.9%, Lucas Glover is 4.8%, Peter Malnati is 4.7%, Austin Cook is 4.4%, B An is 4.2% and so is Adam Schenk. Mark Leishman is 4%, Tom Hoge is 3.6%,Rory Sabbatini is 3.4%, Harry Higgs, Will Gordon and Camilo Vegas are 3% owned, Ryan Armour is 2.8%, Aaron Wise is 2.7%, Maverick McNealy is 2.4%, Charley Hoffman is 2.3%, Luke List is 2.2%.
Golfers Under 2% Ownership
Troy Merritt is 1.9% owned, Chesson Hadley and Cameron Percy are 1.7%, Graeme McDowell is 1.6% along with David Hearn and Andrew Putnam, Bo Hoag and Roger Sloan are 1.5% , X Zhang is 1.3%, Steve Stricker is 1.2%, Branden Grace, Ollie Schniederjans, Brendan Steele, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Jason Dufner are all at 1.1% ownership. Bronson Burgoon is .999125, or rounded up, 1% owned. All other golfers at the time of this report are under 1% ownership.
Picks:
Guys my best two top plays are Corey Conners (9K)and Will Zalatoris (9.2K) Corey is chalky, but his metrics are solid, even with some under on the course history. Zalatoris metrics are fire, and nobody scares him.
Harris English is probably one of the safer plays you can make in the upper tier.
In the mid tier I like Harman (8.4K), Grillo (8.3K) and Streelman (7.5K) for value and some leverage and contrarian edge.
In the lower tier I like Doug Ghim (7.4K) and I like John Huh (7.4K)
My out in left field play is Wes Bryan (6.6K) he is under 5% owned, I missed my last left field play so I’m 5 out of the last 6 for making the cut and bringing value, I think Bryan makes the cut and could end up top 25.
Risky Risky Frisky Biscuit Play: Guys I will play these two picks ONLY in a large field GPP, the bigger the better, these are contrarian and risky plays that can shut down your team pronto, or with a 5.00 entry you can win ten grand like I did last month. If you only have 1 team you are entering, or a limited bankroll, go with the guys I mentioned above, with that being said my two picks are Peter Malnati and Rob Oppenheimer.
Do NOT miss Sia’s WORLD Famous Secret Weapon, unleashed, (after the women and children are safe) tonight in Discord, he has crushed it 23 out of 25 times, the only way you would never want a 23 for 25 is number of tries VS pregnancies per try, (hi, these are my 23 kids, just lucky, heh heh, I guess) this is better, you get a low owned, low priced golfer, (who’s only around for 4 days, won’t cost you a college education) who brings value night after night after….you get it. The Secret Weapon, unveiled tonight in Discord!
In keeping with the holidays a quick note, Patrick “Sharps” Scott, one of our gifted writers and a huge fan of Collin Morikawa was saddened to learn he couldn’t put a bow on his head and mail himself to Morikawa. In an unrelated note, Collin Morikawa was overheard telling his kids that Santa was going to have to come to their NEW house, since they all have to move. Again. Quickly. Seasons Greetings!
Thank you for check out our Mayakoba Golf Classic Ownership Projections, for reviewing our other articles, we do appreciate it, you will find me in Discord after this article is published to answer any questions, go over roster construction, player to player evaluations, ownership leverage, whatever it takes to help your screen go green, along with Sia, Patrick, Antonio, Isaiah, and Michael. Thank you for choosing Win Daily Sports.
As always I hope to be with you, in the money.
