Brian Tulloch 
UFC Fight Island 7.
MAX HOLLOWAY VS. CALVIN KATTER.
After a very long time, we are now back with some UFC DFS on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi! We have an action-packed card ahead of us with currently 11 scheduled fights to take place. The Main Event on this card will be one of the best battles we have seen in a long time.
In my UFC DFS lineups, I will have 100% exposure to the Main Event. The Main Event is a five-round fight. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Fight Island 7, Holloway vs. Katter.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Phil Hawes (-120) (DK 8800) (FD $18) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (-110) (DK 7400) (FD $14).
This fight is a record of nine wins and two losses versus nine wins and two losses. We have Phil Hawes as a -120 favorite facing off against Nassourdine Imavov, who is a slight underdog at -110. Both of these fighters have tremendous knockout power and can most definitely end the fight at any point. Many people will see this as a coinflip fight, and for a good reason, but I feel that Hawes is entirely out of the question when it comes to cardio. Hawes does not have the cardio to stand and bang with Imavov. Phil has never had a fight go the distance in his entire career. Win or lose.
If this fight leaves the first round, it is 100% going to be Imavovs fight to lose. The only way that Hawes will win this fight is with an early takedown or early finish. I will take my chances on a fighter with everything to prove, and is too cheap on both DFS sites. I will have minor shares of Hawes in a couple of UFC DFS lineups, but I will be Looking for Nassourdine to take this fight in the later stages of the third round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Nassourdine Imavov (-110) (DK 7400) (FD $14). THIRD-ROUND TKO.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET:
Austin Lingo (-225) (DK 9000) (FD $20) vs. Jacob Kilburn (+185) (DK 7200) (FD $10).
For my Locked-in target, I will focus on the fight of Austin Lingo versus Jacob Kilburn. Lingo is coming into this fight with a record of seven wins and one loss. His loss came from his most recent fight last year in a well-fought battle against Youssef Zalal. A fight that could have honestly gone either way that ended in a decision loss for Lingo. Austin has been known to end fights early, with five of his seven wins ending in the first round. Usually, someone who likes to finish in the first round has cardio issues, but not here. Lingo has also been victorious when going the distance in his career.
Jacob Kilburn has a record of eight wins and three losses, also coming in off of a loss. He took a monster loss via triangle choke to Billy Q. Kilburn has a history of not being able to defend submissions and getting gassed out too fast. I think this is a perfect spot where he gets entirely outworked by Austin, and he gets hemmed up in the later stages of the first round. He is very strong and has devastating power, but only if he can catch his opponent. Lingo will be too much and will be too fast for him to handle.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Austin Lingo (-225) (DK 9000) (FD $20) FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET:
Carlos Condit (-170) (DK 8700) (FD $16) vs. Matt Brown (+140) (DK 7500) (FD $14).
The battle of the finishers. The fight versus Condit and Brown will be a haymaker fest! Matt Brown is now considered on the chinnier side of his career. He has been finished in 13 out of his 17 career losses, but he also has a 92% finish rate against his opponents in wins. Unfortunately for him, he is about to go to war with Carlos Condit. Condit has a 90% finish rate in his career wins and a record of 31 wins and 13 losses. Carlos is an absolute animal. He is coming off a decision win against Court McGee just three months ago, and before that decision, it was almost three years prior that you had to look back and find the last decision that he was a part of.
There is value all over this card, and I believe this is another value fight. Carlos is too cheap for his potential upside, in my opinion. I will have minor shares of Brown but not many. Condit is my predicted top-scoring fighter, and I believe he KO’s Brown in the second round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Carlos Condit (-170) (DK 8700) (FD $16). SECOND-ROUND TKO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTION:
(No specific order unless noted)
Max Holloway -165 (DK 8900) (FD $21)
Santiago Ponzinibbio -305 (DK 9300) (FD $23)
(GPP ONLY) (RISKY) Punahele Soriano +130 (DK 7700) (FD $12)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s eleven bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 20 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. This slate is very tough to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Value, Locked-In, Top Scoring, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat or you can find me on Twitter @JThomsonDFS. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
