Jim Thomson 
UFC Fight Island 5.
Moraes vs. Sandhagen.
We have an action-packed UFC fight card tonight! UFC Fight Island 5, Moraes vs. Sandhagen starts with seven dynamic preliminary fights and follows up with six excellent fights on the main menu at Fight Island, Abu Dhabi. This is a fight card with 26 fighters scheduled to go to battle. I cannot wait to watch this massive THIRTEEN fight fiasco. It is going to be epic!
In my UFC DFS lineups, I will have 100% exposure to the Main Event. The Main Event is a five-round fight. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Fight Island 5 Moraes vs. Sandhagen.
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MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Youssef Zalal -165 (DK 8600) (FD $17) vs. Ilia Topuria +135 (DK 7600) (FD $15).
Zalal is coming into this fight as the popular pick and with good reason. Youssef is a solid striker with good takedown defense and has started his UFC career with three wins in a row. His speed and movement is something that could make even the most experienced fighters do a double-take. He needs to use his speed and movement to make Ilia tired if he wants an opportunity to win this fight.
Topuria has an undefeated professional record of eight wins and no losses, making his UFC debut. Ilia is a very skilled wrestler and can implement his submission attempts exceptionally well. He has the ability to turn just about any mistake into someone’s worst nightmare and submit them before they realize what had happened. I believe Topuria will be able to catch Zalal moving too fast and take him out with a submission at the beginning of the second round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Ilia Topuria +135 (DK 7600) (FD $15). SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET:
Tom Aspinall -640 (DK 9400) (FD $21) vs. Alan Baudot +440 (DK 6800) (FD $8).
Aspinall is primarily a Muay Thai striker that steps into the octagon on Saturday with a record of one win and no losses in the UFC. Tom is the heaviest favorite on the entire card, and I agree whole heartedly with the Vegas sports betting odds in this scenario. He is a heavyweight that moves very well and is faster than most of his opponents. His strikes are very clean, precise, fast, and powerful. If his opponent creates even the smallest of openings, Tom will light them up like a Christmas tree.
Alan Baudot is making his UFC debut after rolling to an eight-win, one loss record as a professional. Baudot fights a lot like Aspinall if you were to look at his previous matches. Alan is a decent Muay Thai striker and powerful puncher, but in my opinion, is extremely overmatched in this fight. Aspinall is at a way higher level than Baudot, and I think it will show very clearly in this fight. I don’t see Alan making it too far into this fight without getting his bell rung really hard.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Tom Aspinall -640 (DK 9400) (FD $21). FIRST-ROUND TKO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET:
Dricus Du Plessis -170 (DK 8400) (FD $17) vs. Markus Perez +140 (DK 7800) (FD $16).
Du Plessis is a K-1 kickboxer with a professional record of fourteen wins and two losses, making his UFC debut. He is an outstanding striker but has a very unique set of skills when it comes to grappling and submissions. Out of his 16 fights, there has not been a single fight that was not finished inside the distance. All of his fights were TKOs or Submissions. He absolutely loves locking in the rear-naked choke on his opponent, and if there’s an opening for a submission, he is going to attempt it.
Markus Perez has twelve wins, three losses as a professional, two wins, three losses in the UFC, and is coming off of a heartbreaking loss to Wellington Turman. In his last fight, he was dominated all the way through, en route to a unanimous decision loss and is looking to bounce back in a big way. Perez is mainly a grappler, and that is where he will need to be to attempt to beat Du Plessis, but I do not see that happening. Dricus is way more fundamentally sound than Perez and will force him into awkward situations. I see Du Plessis giving Perez his first submission loss in the UFC in round number one.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Dricus Du Plessis -170 (DK 8400) (FD $17). FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.
UFC HONORABLE MENTION:
(No specific order unless noted)
Rodrigo Nascimento -265 (DK 9200) (FD $19) (Added Top Play)
Cory Sandhagen -135 (DK 8200) (FD $21) (Main Event)
Ben Rothwell -150 (DK 8500) (FD $18)
Omar Morales -160 (DK 8300) (FD $17)
(GPP ONLY) (RISKY) Stephanie Egger +160 (DK 7200) (FD $10)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s thirteen bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 20 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. This slate is very tough to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Value, Locked-In, Top Scoring, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat or you can find me on Twitter @JThomsonDFS. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
