Jim Thomson 
UFC Fight Island 4.
Holm vs. Aldana.
We are back at you with another top knock UFC fight card on Fight Island, Abu Dhabi. This card is far from impressive at first glance, but if you start digging, you can start to see the diamonds in the rough. Holly Holm and Irene Aldana headline UFC Vegas 4. This will be a battle with what I expect to be a lot of decision wins, and just because there will potentially be a lot of fights going the distance doesn’t mean that they won’t be amazing fights to watch.
In my UFC DFS lineups, I will usually have 100% exposure to the Main Event, but this is not a usual Main Event. This Main Event, I will have about 50% exposure because both fighters tend to go the distance and do not score very high. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Fight Island 4 Holm vs. Aldana.
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MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Carlos Condit +100 (DK 7900) (FD $16) vs. Court McGee -130 (DK 8300) (FD $17).
Carlos Condit is a veteran of the fight game, stepping into the octagon with 44 fights under his belt. Those fights consist of 30 wins and 13 losses. Condit has been on a torrential downswing as of late, losing his last five battles, and losing six out of his last seven overall.
McGee is also a veteran of the fight game, but his previous few fights have gone a tiny bit better, in my opinion. He has won three out of his last eight fights and is honestly more conditioned for this fight. Im going out on a limb by locking in McGee, but I feel that Condit is officially done fighting after he gets beaten down by Court in this bout.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Court McGee -130 (DK 8300) (FD $17) DECISION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET:
Casey Kenney -340 (DK 9000) (FD $19) vs. Heili Alateng +265 (DK 7200) (FD $12).
Kenney has a considerable advantage in this matchup. He is coming into this fight with an excellent record of 14 wins, two losses, and one no contest. Casey is the better overall fighter in this bout. He has better striking, grappling, Jui-Jitsu, and basically better everything. In his last fight he showed he wasn’t just a decision machine, but he could catch a finish as well. I think he can do the same exact thing here.
Alateng has not impressed me when watching his fight film. He is not even close to the level that Kenney is on. If he tries to fight outside of his comfort zone, he will be in for a long match. Kenney should have no problem shutting him down to the point where he physically can not do anything. I predict Casey to finish this fight early in the second round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Casey Kenney -340 (DK 9000) (FD $19) SECOND-ROUND TKO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET:
Charles Jourdain -460 (DK 9300) (FD $22) vs. Joshua Culibao +340 (DK 6900) (FD $9).
Jourdain is coming into this fight with a professional record of ten wins and three losses. He has been an absolute maniac in the octagon, with every one of his wins coming by way of finish. The three losses that he has on his record are by decision. When Charles gets rolling, he looks like a train that can not be stopped. He will overpower his opponent and put them into situations almost impossible to get out of. Jourdain has a knack for coming out of the corner, going balls to the wall, and throwing everything he has at his opponent. If he starts off against Culibao the way he has in his previous victories, this will be a quick fight.
Culibao is a good overall fighter but is not nearly as strong as Jourdain. Josh will attempt to deflect some of his power and will most likely be unsuccessful. Even though Culibao is 8-1 in his career, I believe he has a repeat performance of his most recent fight and is getting finished early.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Charles Jourdain -460 (DK 9300) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND TKO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTION:
(No specific order)
Kyler Phillips -500 (DK 9200) (FD $21)
Holly Holm -120 (DK 8400) (FD $20)
(GPP ONLY) Nassourdine Imavov -110 (DK 7500) (FD $15)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s eleven bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. This slate is very tough to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Value, Locked-In, Top Scoring, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat or you can find me on Twitter @JThomsonDFS. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
