Jim Thomson 
UFC 252
Miocic Vs. Cormier.
Welcome back for another UFC DFS breakdown, we are at home at the Apex Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. We were finally going to witness the greatest heavyweight trilogy of all time, in my opinion. UFC 252 is an action-packed card, filled with big named superstars, and highly anticipated fights. This eleven-bout fight card is one of the most exciting cards I have witnessed in a long time.
In my UFC DFS lineups, I will have 100 percent exposure to the five-round Main Event fight, with one of either Miocic or Cormier in every lineup that I create. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category of the article.
Tonight i’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 252 Miocic vs. Cormier.
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MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Chris Daukaus (-110) (DK 7700) (FD $14) vs. Parker Porter (-120) (DK 8500) (FD$ 17).
Daukaus is the older brother of fellow UFC fighter Kyle Daukaus. Kyle recently had his debut fight and did not look impressive, so im hoping his brother does not follow in his footsteps here. Chris Daukus is making his UFC debut after starting his professional career off with eight wins and three losses. Daukaus has only one fight that has gone the distance in his career. He is a fighter that constantly looks to take down his opponent and force some heavy ground and pound. He looks for any opportunity to trade strikes, even though he is not the best striker in the world by any means.
Kyle is facing off against Parker Porter. Porter is also making his UFC debut after combining ten wins and five losses to his professional record. Parker is more of an old school, technical boxer with a little bit more experience. I think this fight is going to be a slop fest. Both fighters have a combined two fights (one each) that have gone to a decision. These fighters will struggle with their gas tanks if the fight goes into the later rounds, but I do not see that happening. This is a fight that could go either way and is extremely close. I am going to side with Daukaus via TKO in the first round. I will have some exposure to Porter in my UFC DFS lineups, but will mostly have Daukaus.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Chris Daukaus (-110) (DK 7700) (FD $14). FIRST ROUND TKO.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET:
Herbert “The Blaze” Burns (-270) (DK 8900) (FD $19) vs. Daniel “The Pit” Pineda (+205) (DK 7300) (FD $12).
Over time we have watched Gilbert Burns take the UFC by storm, destroying everyone on his path to the number one contender spot. Now we have Herbert Burns starting to showcase his abilities just like his brother. The Burns brothers should be on everyone’s radar, and today we focus on Herbert “The Blaze” Burns and his fight vs. Daniel Pineda.
Burns is undoubtedly making a name for himself in a hurry with his amazing Jui-Jitsu and his disgusting Muy-Tai striking. In his most recent fight against Evan Dunham, we watched him choke the daylights out of him with a precise and tight Rear Naked Choke submission in the first round. In his UFC debut, he caught Landwehr with one of the most disgusting knees from the clinch I have ever seen, basically taking twenty years off of Nate’s life in the first round.
Burns is now set up for success again against Pineda. Pineda is 35 years old and is on the downswing of his career. I do not see much that Pineda will be able to do in his return to the UFC after six years. He will be in for a rough and tough welcome back, and I think it will be short-lived.
Gilbert’s Muy-Tai and Jui-Jitsu will be way too much for Pineda to handle, and I predict Gilbert to end this fight in the first round. Burns is going to be a staple in most of my DFS lineups.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Herbert “The Blaze” Burns (-270) (DK 8900) (FD $19). FIRST ROUND TKO/SUBMISSION.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET:
Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili (-250) (DK 8700) (FD $18) vs. John “The Magician” Dodson (+195) (DK 7500) (FD $14).
Here is another fight that I am going to heavily target in my UFC DFS lineups. Merab Dvalishvili has been on a war-path as of late, winning four consecutive matches in a row, and producing no less than 91 draftkings points in any of those victories. Generally, if a fight is predicted to end via decision, we try to find a better fight to target for our DFS lineups.
When Merab fights, it is the exception. Dvalishvili is an absolute animal when it comes to taking down his opponents. Out of his four-fight win steak, he has produced no less than five takedowns per fight. In his last fight versus Lopez, he took him down 13 times and had 14 advances en route to a decision victory and a massive 173 fantasy point performance. Merab is a takedown machine and should keep his streak alive against Dodson. Dodson is a decent fighter, but no match for The Machines takedowns. Dodson will be able to escape quickly, but will just get taken down again. I see this fight being an up and down fight with A LOT of takedowns coming from Merab en route to a very convincing decision win.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili (-250) (DK 8700) (FD $18). DECISION
UFC HONORABLE MENTION:
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-125) (DK 8400) (FD $17).
Stipe Miocic (-110) (DK 8200) (FD $20).
Jim Miller (+110) (DK 8300) (FD $16).
(RISKY GPP PLAY) Marlon “Chito” Vera (+220) (DK 7000) (FD $10).
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s 11 bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Always remember the more rounds in a fight, the higher the fantasy score could be. This slate is very tough to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Value, Locked-In, Top Scoring, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat or you can find me on Twitter @JThomsonDFS. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
