Jim Thomson 
UFC FIGHT NIGHT
BRUNSON VS. SHAHBAZYAN
Welcome back for another MMA DFS breakdown, this time we are back at home at the Apex Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. We were finally able to see what Fight Island was really about, and It did not disappoint. Now, the UFC is back at the Apex ready to give us some more eventful and exciting fights with another action-packed fight card on Saturday 8/1/2020 at 7 pm. After a rough night of cancellations and additions, we are now locked into ten fights.
Tonight i’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Fight Night Brunson VS. Shahbazyan .
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MY MMA VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Chris Gutierrez -315 (DK 9200) (FD $19) vs. Cody Durden +245 (DK 7000) (FD $11).
My top value play of the day comes from a matchup that I see being a takedown fest. Gutierrez is coming in with some high ownership, and it is entirely understandable. He is more established and experienced in the UFC than Durden. The odds of this fight, in my opinion, are way off. Vegas has Gutierrez as a -315 favorite and Durden as a +245 underdog.
Gutierrez could be at a disadvantage with his takedown defense. He has been known to be taken down multiple times per fight and tends to give up possible advancement opportunities too easily. This could be tragic for him against a fighter like Durden, an excellent grappler who excels with takedowns. If Gutierrez gets caught in the same old story of dragging out his fights to a decision, he will be in for a long night when he meets Durden in the octagon. I feel that Durden will have his way with Gutierrez and could give us all a nice payday. I think Durden submits Gutierrez in the third round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Cody Durden +245 (DK 7000) (FD $11). THIRD ROUND TKO/SUBMISSION.
MY MMA LOCKED-IN TARGET:
Kevin Holland -235 (DK 8900) (FD $19) vs. Trevin Giles +185 (DK 7300) (FD $11).
Holland is very hard to trust. This is a unique situation of a full-time fighter vs. a full-time police officer. Holland is far and away better at striking, grappling, takedowns, and on the ground. He puts every minute of everyday training into getting better and enhancing his cardio. Kevin is an all-around better fighter.
On the other side, Giles has publicly stated that he has not been training as hard as he should be due to his full-time job. He said that when the pandemic hit his camp changed dramatically, and he could not dedicate efforts to training (completely understandable). Over the previous fights that I watch of Giles, I noticed that he is extremely powerful but tends to lose all energy and gets gassed out in the later rounds. If Giles runs into the same situation here as he did in his last fight, I see the same outcome happening.
Holland is not someone that you can get locked in a cage without extra training and expect better results. The results that I see happening here are a faster ending than Giles’s last fight. If Giles attempts takedowns, which I believe is his only slim shot at a win, he will most likely get gassed and submitted. I do not see this fight going the distance. I’m predicting a second-round submission with Kevin Holland coming out victorious.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Kevin Holland -235 (DK 8900) (FD $19). SECOND ROUND TKO/SUBMISSION.
MY MMA TOP SCORING TARGET:
Jamall Emmers -335 (DK 7800) (FD $12) vs. Vincent Cachero +275 (DK 6900) (FD $9).
Initially, I was fading Emmers vs. Valiev. That changed quickly with all of the changes to this fight card overnight. Cachero is 30 years old with minimal fight experience, four-inch reach disadvantage, fighting on short notice, and has never fought at 145 before. This lines up to be a disaster for him. Emmers is a tough fighter with a lot of power, great takedowns, excellent takedown defense, and a solid chin.
There are not many paths to victory for Cachero here. He is lined up to be the punching bad for Emmers, and I think Emmers’s experience will demolish him. Emmers should come out and potentially take Cachero out in the first or second round, after many significant strikes and takedowns. He should have no problem here, and I will be leaning heavily on him in my MMA DFS lineups.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jamall Emmers -335 (DK 7800) (FD $12). FIRST ROUND TKO/SUBMISSION.
UFC HONORABLE MENTION:
Edmen Shahbazyan -330 (DK 9100) (FD $20).
Jonathan Martinez -265 (DK 8600) (FD $17).
(CASH/GPP VALUE): Johnny Munoz +120 (DK 7200) (FD $10).
(RISKY GPP ONLY) Randy Brown +165 (DK 7400) (FD $15).
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s 10 bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. Always remember the more rounds in a fight, the higher the fantasy score could be. This slate is very tough to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Value, Locked-In, Top Scoring, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat or you can find me on Twitter @JThomsonDFS. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
