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JT’s DFS Picks for UFC Fight Night 176 (May 16)

UFC MMA Fight Night is one of the few sporting events scheduled to continue as planned this weekend amid the global coronavirus outbreak. The 11-bout event expected to start at 6 p.m. ET at the Jacksonville Arena in an empty arena due to the pandemic sweeping the world. Only necessary individuals will be allowed in the building. This fight card is highlighted by the main event of Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris. This article is my top three targets that I will be using in most of my Daily Fantasy lineups and my top money line bets. The fight by fight breakdown can be found in our DISCORD chat.

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#1 TARGET: ALISTAIR OVEREEM (45-18) (+115) (7500) VS. WALT HARRIS (13-7) (-145) (8700).

This fight not only holds my favorite fighter of the fight card, but it also holds the much anticipated main event. Coming in at six feet four inches tall, with an 80-inch reach, is Alistair Overeem. Overeem will be competing in his 64th career MMA fight. Over the years, Overeem has taken out many top tier opponents, but with a cost. Alistair has taken more damage to the body and chin than any fighter I have ever seen in my life. He is getting older (39 years old) and can not take the beating that he used to take. On the other side of the octagon is a man on a warpath. Walt Harris is the definition of an athletic big man. He not only has massive power behind every blow, but he is extremely fast too. Walt’s power and speed will be too much for Overeem to handle. The only opportunity Alistair has is to tire out Harris by ducking and dodging every hard, precise, and fast punch he throws at him. In this particular fight, Harris is fighting with a heavy heart and many emotions, im sure. This will be one fight that Overeem will not be able to sneak out with. Unfortunately for him, tonight, he is going to be Walt Harris’s punching bag. I can see Harris blowing the doors off of Overeem and ending this bout in the first round.

MY UFC PICK: WALT HARRIS. FIRST ROUND TKO.

#2 TARGET: MATT BROWN (24-16) (+135) (7200) VS. MIGUEL BAEZA (8-0) (-150) (9000).

We have a matchup between the old school and the new school, the old man versus the young gun, the Atari versus the PlayStation 4, Brown versus Baeza. Brown is coming into this fight as a veteran of the UFC. He probably shouldn’t even be fighting anymore. The amount of damage he has taken over his career is mind-blowing. He is entering his 26th fight in the UFC at 39 years old and facing off against the future phenom in Miguel Baeza. Training out of MMA Masters, Baeza is 27 years old and won his debut fight in the UFC. In his debut, he looked absolutely amazing against Hector Aldana. Miguel came out and dismantled Aldana. His technique, power, low kicks we’re flawless and extremely damaging. I expect Baeza to use the same technique, strength, explosiveness, to take Brown out fast, early, and have him contemplating retirement. I predict Baeza knocks Brown out in the first round of the fight.

MY UFC PICK: MIGUEL BAEZA. FIRST ROUND TKO.

#3 TARGET: DON’TALE MAYES (7-3) (-110) (8400) VS. RODRIGO NASCIMENTO (0-0) (-120) (7800).

Mayes might have lost his debut fight in the UFC, but im going to say that was debut jitters. Makes is primarily a striker with insane power in his hands. Although he lost that fight, I noticed a significant improvement to his cardio and stamina. Nascimento is no chump. He has seven wins and no losses as a pro fighter. The difference is, those fights we’re not in the UFC. Rodrigo won the contender series by a head and arm choke as an underdog. This fight is basically a contender series fight. Both fighters combined have a total of one fight in the UFC. The only way Nascimento will win this fight is if Mayes slows down, gets gassed, and can work towards a submission. In my opinion, Mayes’s takedown defense is very good, and I don’t see Rodrigo having his way. If Don’Tale starts blasting hard low kicks, keeps a good pace, and wears down Nascimento on the feet, I see no way that Mayes does not win this fight. I predict Mayes will win by a second-round stoppage.

MY UFC PICK: DON’TALE MAYES. SECOND ROUND TKO.

HONORABLE MENTION:

NATE LANDWEHR (13-3) (-104) (7900).

SONG YADONG (15-4) (-195) (8900).

DAN IGE (13-2) (+121) (7700).

SUMMARY:

On tonight’s 11 bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets listed in my article to be a part of about 50 percent of my lineups. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup. I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core (fighters above) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them with the available salary. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

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