Vincent Pensabene 
Jacob’s Above Average Plays is starting the Bowl Season off right with a pick for today’s Bahamas Bowl. He breaks down all the stats and trends so you know what matters and why these plays will win you money!
Take Buffalo Bulls -6.5 vs Charlotte 49’ers (2:00 pm EST, Friday, December 20th, 2019)
Today starts the 2019-2020 College Football bowl season, and it begins with a good one. We have two teams who have had above-average seasons, and each is looking for their first bowl win. Buffalo comes into this game seeking their first bowl win in what is now their fourth attempt. The MAC doesn’t usually fare well in bowl games, going just 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS last year. Overall in the last seven seasons, the Mid-American Conference has won just nine games out of forty-two bowl appearances – but I think Buffalo can finally buck this trend. They finished the season second in the MAC, maintaining an above-average offense, to say the least. After an early-season quarterback change to sophomore Kyle Vantrease, the team really started rolling. They have the nation’s sixth-ranked running back, Jaret Patterson, who has amassed way above average rushing yards and scores. He rushed for 1,626 yards and seventeen TD’s, which is more yards and touchdowns on the ground than their quarterback through the air. Buffalo’s number two running back, Kevin Marks, is an above-average running back himself. He has run for 1,008 yards and 8 TD’s, which ranks him 48th in the nation in running backs. Buffalo’s defense is no slouch either. They give up less than 3.35 yards per carrying, and only 95.33 total rush yards per game. Through the air, Buffalo is giving up just 197.75 yards per game. Overall, they hold teams to 4.85 yards per play. None of this sounds good for Charlotte.
This is Charlotte’s first-ever bowl appearance; it comes just 5 years after their inaugural FBS season. They began the year winning just two out of their first seven games. While it was a tough stretch of their schedule, these games were not even close. The only real above average part of their team was their quarterback, but he was only above average for their division. Quarterback, Chris Reynolds, led the 49ers offense – passing for 2,366 yards, twenty-one touchdowns, and ten interceptions. They have averaged 5.1 yards per attempt, but they don’t do well verse above-average rushing defenses. Specifically, those allowing less than 3.35 yards per carry – going just 1-6 against the spread their last seven games against teams that fit that trend.
Buffalo has been too much of an offensive powerhouse thisyear. They finished the year winning five of their last six games, scoring morethan forty points in all but two of them. I truly think Buffalo is still sourfrom how last year’s bowl game went verse Toledo, and Charlotte is going to payfor that. Lay the points.
Take Washington Capitals -1.5 +140 vs New Jersey Devils (7:00 pm EST, Friday, December 20th, 2019)
The Washington Capitals have been above average on almost every stat so far this year. They rank top ten in goals, power-play offense, and power play kills – not just overall, but on the road especially. They rank in the top half of the NHL in shots on goal per game, ranking 16th overall and 13th on the road. However, it is the defense that is going to win us this bet. Allowing just 2.68 goals per game when on the road (ranked 6th) and allowing less than thirty shots on goal per game – they have shut teams down all year. So far this year: They have won fifteen out of nineteen games on the road and have won five of their last six. They rank second in the NHL in goals scored when playing on the road, scoring an above-average 3.63 goals per game. To go with all of this, Washington has been a nightmare for the Devils in the past. The Capitals have won eight of their last ten verse the Devils on the road and won sixteen of the last nineteen games overall. All of this makes me look to a Capitals puck line cover. Not only have the Devils been dominated by the Capitals, but they are really, really bad this year. They do not rank above average in any offensive stats and are ranked 30th overall in goals scored per game. They do not get better at home, either. Scoring 2.82 goals per game, which ranks them 30th in the NHL, they seem to just flounder through games. The Devils are just 5-12 at home this year and have lost all but two of their last nine games. At home, they also allow an above-average amount of goals. New Jersey is ranked 29th in the NHL in goals allowed per game at home, giving up 3.41 goals per game.
I just do not see how the Devils can keep upwith the Capitals right now. The Capitals have dominated better teams all year,and it’s not like the Devils have any semblance of good form right now. TheDevils are the Capitals perennial punching bag, and I see that continue here.Lay 1.5 goals with Washington to get a great plus money return.
