Pick Management 
Jacob’s Above Average Plays is back to give you all his best Conference Championship plays. Two sides, a teaser and player prop are going to be above-average wins today, which means you make money!
Take Kansas City Chiefs -7 versus Tennessee Titans (3:05 pm EST, Sunday 19 January 2020)
6.5 Point Teaser- Kansas City Chiefs -.5 / San Francisco 49’ers -1 (3:05 pm EST, Sunday 19 January 2020)
I’m going to ride with the favorites this weekend as we have two exciting Conference Championship matchups. Kansas City and San Francisco have had their ups and downs, but the adjustments made over the season make me believe it’s the year for these two teams to meet in the Super Bowl.
Last week, Kansas City had the second greatest comeback in recent memory (The first is the Patriots Super Bowl win over Atlanta). Watching Houston’s 24-0 lead evaporate in minutes was incredible, it was such a stellar performance by KC. This shows that an above-average offense with a great coach is a pretty unstoppable force against teams with obvious weaknesses like Houston. It wasn’t just that performance, it’s been the year as a whole – especially the last seven games of the year. Since Kansas City’s loss to Tennessee: they have covered seven, pushed once, and they have really punished teams. In that time, they have held two teams to just three points, and one to nine. The defense has really stepped up, and that will be a problem for Ryan Tannehill who has had just seven completions in the last three games. The Titans have made it by on the back of Derrick Henry, but that will stop in this game. The Kansas City offense is such a juggernaut that the Titans are going to have to throw the ball. I see Kansas City getting out to an early double-digit lead, and you can’t just run the ball to come back from that. Home teams in the AFC Conference Championship games are 11-2 straight up and 8-5 ATS the last 13 years.
To me, this is just Kansas City’s year. The Titans win over the Chiefs earlier this year had some hijinx in it, and Pat Mahomes was just returning for injury. I like that the Titans beat them earlier this year because I think it gives them a false sense of security against Kansas City. Take Kansas City -7 and in the teaser -.5.
Take San Francisco 49’ers -7.5 versus Green Bay Packers (6:40 pm EST, Sunday 19 January 2020)
Did you know that both Jimmy G and Aaron Rodgers were both backups for three years to Hall of Famers? Did you also know that Aaron Rodgers had his Super Bowl win in his sixth season, and that this is Jimmy G’s sixth season? I really think this game is set up to be a changing of the guard in the NFL. I believe that Rodgers is on his way out as a top quarterback in the league, and Garppolo is going to be the one to take his place.
Somehow, the Packers have put together 14 regular-season wins, but they simply don’t have the talent to keep up with San Francisco. To me, the Packers have just three above-average players who can impact the game: Rodgers, Jones, and Adams. That just won’t be enough when facing a team that is above-average on both sides of the ball, and who have the better coach. San Francisco is a team of studs, and I think they do what they please to the Packers. The mix of an explosive offense and stout defense will be too much to overcome for Rodgers. The Packers struggled last week against Seattle, who is nowhere near as good as the 49ers.
I think San Francisco gets a double-digit win as Jimmy G has settled into being a playoff quarterback. As he continues to relax, the offense will only improve. Rodgers is going to have to put this game on his back, and I think this time it’ll be too much to carry.
Derrick Henry Rush Yards OVER 109.5 -134
I like Derrick Henry to go over his rushing yards total this game, and he will get most of it done in the first half. The one vulnerability I see Kansas City having is that they don’t have the best rush defense (it’s not the worst, either). The KC rush defense is pedestrian, allowing 129.44 rush yards per game at home. The beginning of this game will be competitive, and that is when Henry gets his yards. I think he may break a big run too, which he does in most games. As this game goes on, the Chiefs are going to get a substantial lead. The Titans will have to get away from the run, but I like Henry to rack up some yards early. Take Derrick Henry Rush Yards over 109.5 (-134).
(Odds provided by DraftKings.)
