Pick Management 
Jacob’s Above Average Plays ended the year with two wins and one tough beat but still cashed! He’s starting the year with three Above Average bowl plays to start your year with a bang!
Take Auburn Tigers -7 versus Minnesota Golden Gophers (1:00 pm EST, Wednesday, 1 January 2020)
Here we have two teams that both had higher expectations for themselves this year. Auburn had its eyes set on the College Football Playoff and Minnesota was looking for at least a top 15 ranking to finish the year, obviously, that didn’t happen.
Minnesota finished the year ranked 18th in the nation but they squandered opportunities this year. They finished the year getting blown out by Wisconsin at home in the Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe losing 38-17. That loss cost Minnesota the Big Ten West and a shot at the Big Ten title versus Ohio State. Minnesota did have an above-average start to their season winning their first nine games. They averaged 176 yards per game on the ground, 251 yards per the air and rank 17th in the nation in points per game with an average of 34.9 ppg. I see them struggling here though, as two out of the last three games they played this season they lost. Auburn has a similar makeup to those teams (Wisconsin, Iowa). They seem to struggle against stout defenses with good run games and that’s what Auburn has.
Auburn did have an above-average season though, don’t get me wrong. They finished the regular season winning nine out of the twelve games that they played losing to just Texas A&M, Georgia, and LSU (by an average of 7 points), so I can forgive those losses. Their team was led by their above-average defense and defensive tackle, Derrick Brown. The Tigers allowed just an average of 18.28 points per game, just 208.42 yards passing, and 115.5 yards rushings. Auburn ranked 10th in the nation in yards allowed per play, allowing just 4.68 yards per play. The Tigers had an above-average offense this year, too, and that’s allowed them to beat up on lesser teams. Winning 11 out of 12 games straight up as favorites, and covering 10 of 12 against the spread as favorites, I expect Auburn to be confident going into this game. Auburn finished the year with a bang, putting up 48 points on Alabama on their way to defeating them and arguably keeping Alabama out of the College Football Playoff. With a strong end to the year and a team looking for higher expectations next year, I see them giving Minnesota all they can handle. Lay the points.
Take Oregon Ducks +2.5 versus Wisconsin Badgers (5:00 pm EST, Wednesday, 1 January 2020)
Oregon takes on Wisconsin today in the Rose Bowl and I see this being a tough game for both sides. The Ducks have one of the toughest, most experienced offensive lines in the country while Wisconsin, too, has an above-average O-Line and it’s the same thing on the other side of the ball. Both of these teams have above average defenses and D-lines which sets this game up to be a real battle.
Oregon played well all year and has, what is potential number 1 draft pick as quarterback, Justin Herbert at the helm. The Ducks won their last game, as three-point underdogs against Utah 37-15 to win the Pac12 and Wisconsin has a similar build to Utah. Oregon’s offense scored an average of 35.92 points per game, passing for 267.46 yards and rushing for 183.23 yards. They have the number 15 overall ranked offense in the nation but it’s their above-average defense that’s going to make all the difference in this game. The Duck’s defense is ranked 8th in the nation allowing just 15.69 points per game. They allow 106.85 yards on the ground and that will need to hold up when facing Wisconsin running back, Jonathan Taylor, who averages 146.8 yards per game, gaining an above-average 6.4 yards per attempt. Oregon has its own stud running back in CJ Verdell. He rushed for 208 yards against a tough Utah defense. He will try to continue that today, in hopes of keeping Wisconsin off the field.
Wisconsin played well all year too. They won ten of their thirteen games, covering in eight of them. Wisconsin’s offense is led by running back, Jonathan Taylor, who rushed for 148 yards and a touchdown against the College Football Playoff team, Ohio State. They have above-average offensive and defensive lines and they try to dominate teams at the line of scrimmage. I really do not see that working out well for them here as Oregon’s lines have held up against better teams this year.
This line opened at 3.5 with Wisconsin favored before it dropped to Wisconsin favored 2.5 and I think the move was right. Oregon was on their way to a College Football Playoff berth before a midseason stumble. I think Oregon is looking for an outright win today but I’ll take the points just in case. Take Oregon +2.5.
Take Baylor Bears +4.5 versus Georgia Bulldogs (8:45 pm EST, Wednesday, 1 January 2020)
I’m a little late to the party on this one but as it gets closer to the game, Baylor quarterback, Charlie Brewer, announced he will play and the list of Georgia players scratched from this game is up to 13 players. Of the players missing the game, six are starters and seven are players in various rotations. Last year, Georgia played in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day and lost outright to Texas 28-21 as 13.5 point favorites. They find themselves in another Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day, this time missing 13 players. I do not expect Georgia to play their best football, as the regular season ended in disappointment getting rolled by LSU 37-10. If they would have played that game better and had a closer finish, I could see them playing hard here but it was a bad finish to their regular season and that can be deflating. Baylor and Georgia do have similar makeups. Both teams have above average defenses, Georgia’s ranked second, Baylor’s ranked sixteenth. Georgia and Baylor both have great offenses too, both putting up more than 30 points per game. I only see Baylor keeping up their above-average play here though.
Baylor won 11 of the 13 games they played, covering in seven of them. Their defense is allowing just 19.31 points per game and kept teams under 5 yards per play (4.85 yards) but, more importantly, their players will be there. Baylor quarterback, Charlie Brewer, suffered a concussion in the Big 12 Title Game and there was some concern he would not be back for this game. That situation changed and he announced he’s playing. I believe he wants to make up for his sub-par championship game performance ( he was playing through a concussion).
I think this game comes down to motivation. Georgia was a dud in this same situation last year and now they are missing 13 players. Baylor’s team is healthy and had a tough loss to end the year losing 30-23 to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title Game. I’m taking the Baylor Bears with the points to end their season on a good note.
