Pick Management 
Jacob’s Above Average Plays is giving you three plays to end the NFL regular season with. These are above average plays that will stuff those pockets one more time to end the regular season with a bang!
Take Kansas City – 9.5 vs LA Chargers (1:00 pm EST, Sunday 29 December 2019)
Well, we did it, we made it through the regular season as today is the last regular season Sunday. We’re a little late to the party with this line as it opened at Kansas City -6.5 versus the Chargers but I’m not concerned. Kansas City has been an above-average offense this year ranking in the top ten in touchdowns per game (5th), yards per game (4th), first downs per game (5th), yards per play (3rd) and that spells trouble for the Chargers. Kansas City can now lean on their defense to help win games. Most of the year, the Chief’s defense was a real liability. Bad teams were able to have an above-average showing on offense when playing Kansas City. Since the Chiefs played the Chargers in Mexico City, their defense turned totally turned around.
On the other side, we have the Chargers. This is a team with so much potential that just can not seem to put things together to be successful. They are coming into this game with nothing to play for and after rushing for just 19 yards last week, I believe they have just given up. Like I said before, the Chargers have nothing to play for in this game and have won just once in their last ten games. With the Chargers offensive woes, I just can’t see them scoring on the above-average defense of Kansas City which has allowed just 31 points in their last four games combined.
Kansas City needs to win this game to secure their playoff position and the Chargers are just waiting for the game to end. I think the Chiefs can name the score here. Kansas City covers the number, the lay points (-9.5)
Take Pittsburgh vs Baltimore UNDER 37 (1:00 pm, Sunday 29 December 2019)
This could have been the most exciting game of the week but now I expect it to be the slowest, most boring game of the year. The Steelers come into this game with Duck Hodges as their quarterback with Mason Rudolph on IR. Since Mason Rudolph became quarterback, the Steelers’ offense took a nosedive. Now with Hodges behind the wheel, it’s even worse. In the last seven games, the Steelers only scored more than 17 points twice. They rank 26th in points per game, averaging just 18.6 points per game for the year. They rank 30th in total yards per game averaging 284 ypg and, while this is a “must-win” game for them, it doesn’t mean that they will. Pittsburgh has gone under the total in nine out of the last 10 games played this year, including the last seven in a row.
Baltimore, on the other hand, has their number one seed locked up and have nothing to play for in this game. Coach Jim Harbaugh said he is sitting his starters including quarterback Lamar Jackson, running back Mark Ingram II, and tight end Mark Andrews. So basically, all of the players who score for the Ravens will not be playing. The Ravens will be starting Ronald Griffin III, also known as RG3, and he’s not above-average or even an average quarterback. RG3 hasn’t started a game since 2016 and, in his last season as a starter, he only won one game out of the five he played before getting a season-ending injury. Baltimore will have some starters in on defense and they’ve been playing above average all year. Baltimore allows the fifth-fewest yards per game allowing an average of just 309.4 yards per game (Pittsburgh is fourth allowing 304.1 ypg) and I see them trying to play spoiler, this is still Baltimore versus Pittsburgh.
I see very few points in this game. I think Coach Harbaugh will just run the ball and try to end the game and with defense hassling Hodges the whole time. Pittsburgh needs this game, they will be playing hard regardless of what Baltimore does but that doesn’t mean they are suddenly a good team. Take UNDER 37 in what should be a slow, low scoring game.
Take Tennessee -7 verse Houston ( 4:25 pm EST, Sunday 29 December 2019)
This is another game that should be exciting but has “blow out” written all over it. Tennessee has been above average across the board on offense since quarterback Ryan Tannehill took over. They rank fifteenth in yards per game (355.9), fourth in yards per play (6), fourth in touchdowns per game (3.3), and sixth in rush yards per game (131.9). Ryan Tannehill is throwing for 224 yards per game to go with Derrick Henry’s (and a few others) 131.9 yards rushing per game. They are a freight train in the NFL and become a real threat to go deep into the playoffs. The Titans covered six out of their last ten games and won seven of their last ten games played in December.
Houston, too, is a great above-average, offensive-minded team this year. Ranked 11th in points per game (24.3), quarterback Deshaun Watson played great this year throwing for an average of 239.4 ypg. Watson had 26 touchdowns,12 interceptions and isn’t playing in this game. Initially, Coach Bill O’Brien said he would play his starters before reneging on his plans and announced he would rest his starters. I don’t put any stock into the Houston backups, especially AJ McCarron as the quarterback.
Tennessee needs this game to lock up their playoff spot and I see them getting a double-digit win here. I think they would have covered this number with the Houston starters in. Tennessee has been above average, even great at times this year and it will continue today, lay the points (-7).
