Jacob’s Above Average Plays

Jacob brings you today’s Above Average NHL plays. He finds the trends that will win you money. Follow Jacob’s Average Plays daily on Win Daily Sports.

Take Pittsburgh Penguins to Win in regulation -150 vs LA Kings (7:00 pm EST, Saturday, December 14, 2019)

I’ll preface this play by letting you know: I’m a total homer for the Penguins. Generations of Rebb have sat behind the glass of a Pen’s game before holiday gatherings at Grandma’s house… I digress. This Pen’s team is for real, though. They’ve gone 13-6 at home this season; 13-5 as a home favorite. This is simply a case of two teams in wildly different directions. The Kings are 13-20 this season and are an ugly 1-11 in their last twelve games on the road. They have a struggling offense, which is only scoring 2.48 goals per game. When they hit the road, their goals per game drops to just two goals. The Kings rank 28th in the league in overall offense, which doesn’t bode well when facing above-average Penguins goalie, Matt Murray, who has been tremendously reliable for Pittsburgh the past few years. The one thing the Kings do above average is their shots on goal differential and shots on goal. They rank first in the NHL in shot differential, taking 1,118 shots on goal while allowing 926. This makes zero sense since their offense is so bad, and they have so little scoring. They literally take more shots on goal than any other team in the NHL and score an average of two goals per game on the road – It is really unbelievable. While the Kings have all of these struggles, the Penguins are a different story. They have the fourth-ranked offense overall and are owners of the second-best shot differential. They average 3.3 GPG while only allowing 2.47. While Pittsburgh has been without Captain Sidney Crosby, they have continued to play far above the average of what could be expected of them while he has been gone. With the Pen’s at home, I can see this game getting away from the Kings quickly. I’m taking Pittsburgh to win in regulation.

Take NY Islanders to Win in regulation -130 vs Buffalo Sabres (1:00 pm EST, Saturday, December 14, 2019)

Buffalo appears to be a hot team. Playing well above average from their usual standards, winning three in a row coming into this game. At other times this year, Buffalo has again appeared to be one of the hotter teams in the NHL before going on multiple game losing streaks. They aren’t that good, trust me. In reality, they are a sub .500 team that has gone 6-11 on the road so far this year – including 2-6 verse teams who win more than 55% of their games. Not to mention, they are 5-10 as a road underdog. Buffalo really is a middle of the pack team. They have just under a .500 record, winning sixteen out of thirty-three games. They are ranked 13th in overall offense and 16th in overall defense (first team below the league average), and they head to the Islanders home ice where they have been just nasty all year. The Islanders are 12-3 at home this year: 12-5 overall as a favorite and 9-2 as a home favorite. They are way above average when it comes to beating lesser teams. The Islanders are 11-3 verse teams who win between 45-55% of their games (Remember: Buffalo is 2-6 verse teams who win more than 55% of their games). They also beat up on teams who allow more than 2.9 GPG, winning fifteen out of twenty games against teams who do. Lastly, and I think most importantly, there is the Islanders goalie, Semyon Varlamov. He is just stellar, definitely one of my favorite goalies in a long time. The Islanders are 11-4 when he starts in net allowing just 2.26 GPG with a .926% save rate. He averages less than half a goal during penalty kills (.47) and he’s just a house in the net. Trust in him and the Islanders to shut down Buffalo and get the win in regulation.

Take YES- Goal in the 1^st 10 Minutes -155 NJ Devils vs Arizona Coyotes (8:05 pm EST, Saturday, December 14, 2019)

I decidedto play this off of some really strong trends. Arizona has had a goal scored inthe first ten minutes at home in thirteen of the last sixteen games – whether theymake the score, or the other team makes it for them. Overall, Arizona has had agoal scored in the first ten minutes in eighteen out of thirty-two games thisyear, which is 56.3% of the time. The Devils have had a goal scored in the firstten minutes in sixteen out of twenty-nine games, which is 55.2% of the time. Thatsaid, both of these teams are far above average in goals scored in the first tenminutes of a game. I am going to ride the hot hand here with the Coyotes and Ithink a goal will be scored in the first 10 minutes.

Take OVER 1.5 Goals in the 2^nd Period -170 NY Rangers vs Anaheim Ducks (4:05 pm EST, Saturday, December 14, 2019)

Again, I am following some really strong trends here. The Rangers are fourth in the NHL in games going Over 1.5 goals in the 2^nd period, with a 22-8 record. The Ducks also have an above-average record of going Over 1.5 goals in the 2^nd period, with a record of 22-9. Both of these teams are coming off of two days’ rest – I fully expect them to be fresh in this game. I’m definitely thinking we will see some goals. Take the over, win the money.