Pick Management 
Jacob’s Above Average Plays has had a phenomenal week and plans on continuing that today. Three more plays one NHL, one NBA, and an NFL playoff pick, that are going to break the books.
Take Baltimore -9.5 versus Tennessee (8:15 pm EST, Saturday 11 January 2020)
Well, we’ve made it to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs and, man, it’s been a crazy year and I do not think any other teams had a crazier run than these two. I think this will be a really good game but Baltimore is the better team. I see them not only advancing to the next round but covering this game.
Tennessee won last week versus the defending world champion, Patriots, but they didn’t look great and the Patriots played terribly. That is actually not a good thing as teams who beat the defending champions have gone just 1-13 next week. In last week’s game, quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, completed just eight of his fifteen pass attempts. That won’t be enough to beat or even stay close to the Ravens number one scoring offense in the league and number one in yards per game. While Tennessee has been putting up points, they face off against the number 7 all-time defense in DVOA and I think this is their year. While Derrick Henry repeatedly had above-average games including last week rushing for 180 yards versus the Patriots, that wasn’t the same New England defense that started the year. So, I really think it was a misrepresentation of the Tennessee offense.
Baltimore, on the other hand, has not just been above average but stellar all year. They have the number one scoring offense, number two overall offense, the 7th best defense per DVOA of all time, and their defense holds teams to an average of 93.4 rush yards per game. In the last ten games, they won eight by double digits and they held five playoff teams this year under 20 points.
I really think Baltimore can name the score in this one. Baltimore, in my opinion, is the most complete team in the NFL and Tennessee’s performance, or lack of performance, was the deciding factor in this one. Take Baltimore minus the points.
Take Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia OVER 1.5 Goals First Period -167 ( 7:00 pm EST, Saturday, 11 January 2020)
Two of the NHL’s best scoring offenses face off tonight in what I think will be the highest-scoring game of the night. Tampa Bay plays hard and fast and Philly loves to pour in goals early and often.
This game will see goals early. Philly scored in the first ten minutes of their games in 32 out of the 44 games played which are obviously way above average when compared to the rest of the NHL. The Lightning did it in 25 of the 43 games that they have played. When it comes to the total going over one and a half goals in the first period, it gets even better. In the last ten games, Philly went over the total in seven and in five of ten for Tampa Bay. Overall in the first period, the total went over one and a half in just about 57% of the time and in about half of Tampa Bay’s games.
This game will go over in the first period. In six of the last seven matchups between these two teams, with Tampa Bay as the road team, the game total went over. Tampa Bay is the number one offense in the NHL and Philly is ranked 12th, scoring an above-average 3.18 goals per game. At home, Philly is ranked fourth in offense, scoring an above-average 3.75 goals per game.
This is going to be an exciting game. There will be goals on top of goals in a fast-paced, competitive game between two tough teams. I really like the over in this game, as I think we see more than seven goals. Take over 1.5 goals in the first period -167.
Take Oklahoma City -1 versus LA Lakers ( 8:00 pm EST, Saturday 11 January 2020)
Oklahoma City is the best cover team in the NBA and they are playing way above average from what they were. Usually, I wouldn’t go against the Lakers but they are not at full strength as Anthony Davis is out and Lebron probably isn’t playing. Because of their absences, I am all over the Thunder.
I nailed OKC as a dog the other night as the blew out Houston winning 113-92. They average 108.93 ppg and they rank ninth in field goal percentage (at home they rank first). They have an above-average defense, allowing 106.95 ppg, and, with the Lakers missing the majority of their playmakers, I really think LA will struggle tonight. Oklahoma has a great home record, winning 13 of their 19 home games, covering in 12 of them. The Thunder covered seven of the last ten games versus the Lakers.
The Lakers are going to struggle tonight without Lebron and Davis. I can’t put too much into their stats with their stars missing from this game. I think that they can step up defensively in this game. They rank eighth in road defense and a lot of their defense comes from roll players like Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo. I think that the Lakers can at least keep this a low scoring game but they’re going to struggle on offense.
OKC is playing above-average basketball at home. They are 12-2 as a favorite and, in the last ten games versus the Lakers, they averaged 113 points. Going 11-2 against the spread versus the Lakers, in the last 13 games, is no small feat. With OKC winning eight of the last eight games and covering in seven of them, I see them taking it to the Lakers! Teams don’t get many opportunities to give the Lakers a loss and I see the Thunder handing them one tonight. Take Oklahoma -1.
(If Davis or James plays, this is a NO PLAY)
