Allan Fabrykant Isaiah’s Protocol for the NBA DFS slate is built around DraftKings pricing but is good across the industry with some slight adjustments to salaries on the various sites. The players I’m recommending are best used together for cash game purposes. These players are also decent considerations for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) games when used individually with other contrarian type players.
We are looking to break down a small 4 game NBA DFS slate tonight. Even though there are only 8 teams playing tonight, roster construction can be a little tricky with some big names coming off of 3 of those games. There are some interesting options to consider with Stephen Curry expected to make his long-awaited return from injury tonight. As always, I like to advise all my readers to join the staff at WinDaily in our Discord chat rooms as we discuss some of the important news of the day and break down some intriguing plays even further.
THE GAMES
THE STUDS
James Harden ($10700) Harden has a 35.3 percent usage rate, a 33.2% assist rate, and a 10% rebound rate. He is shooting 1.53 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFPTS) per minute and has boosted that rate to 1.61 FP/min. since February 1st. The Rockets have the highest implied team total (ITT) (118 ½) on this NBA DFS slate and the Clippers rank 27th in defensive efficiency (DEFF) vs. shooting guards (SG).
Kawhi Leonard ($9300) Kawhi owns a 34.4 percent usage rate and scores 1.52 FP/min. The Rockets rank 27th in DEFF vs. small forwards (SF) and 21st in (DVA) which is a rank given to the opponent when facing this player’s archetype. This game is looking to be a shootout as the Clippers have a 118 ITT as ½ point road underdogs. Find a way to get exposure to one, or both of these studs tonight.
* I’m considering Nikola Jokic ($9800) as there are limited options at the center position tonight. I’m not sure it’s necessary to pay this salary with some of the other options I’m looking at in my core.
THE CORE
Tobias Harris ($7900) Harris has a 22.8 percent usage rate and scores 1.02 FP/min. His numbers have seen a huge bump as the 76ers are without 3 of their starters right now. Sacramento ranks 26th in DEFF vs. opposing SF’s and Tobias should get 40+ minutes tonight. Don’t let the 33 minutes in his last game fool you. He got into a bit of early foul trouble which is out of the norm for him.
Paul George ($7400) George is currently posting a 30.5 percent usage rate on a team that also rosters Kawhi Leonard. Paul shoots 1.31 FP/min and has averaged 51.4 DKFPTS vs. the Rockets in 2 previous meetings. His salary does not reflect his ability or expected production on this NBA DFS slate.
Robert Covington ($6700) Covington doesn’t have eye-popping numbers on the season as he’s played a majority of his minutes with the lowly Timberwolves. He has a 17.6% usage rate and scores .97 FP/min. Covington seems to have revived his career. He’s found the perfect fit with the playoff-contending Rockets. Robert has averaged over 30 minutes a game and just under 40 DKFPTS over his last 7 contests. In comes a Clipper squad that ranks 29th in DVA.
Shake Milton ($6500) Milton has filled in admirably since Ben Simmons got injured. Shake got into some foul trouble against the Lakers on Tuesday but has otherwise played a full allotment of starters minutes. I expect him to get full run against a Kings team that ranks 21st in DEFF and 23rd in DVA against opposing point guards (PG). I want to get exposure to the starters of this short-handed Sixer squad and Shake fits the bill perfectly on this NBA DFS slate.
THE OTHERS
De’Aaron Fox ($8000), Al Horford ($7000), Jamal Murray ($6800), Montrezl Harrell ($6500), Fred VanVleet ($6500), Terry Rozier ($6200), Draymond Green ($6300) OR Eric Paschall ($5800) depending on Dray’s status, and Paul Millsap ($4600).
There are some other fillers hereand there I’m looking at so check in the Discord chat rooms for some updates.
THE PLAYS
*Favorite play of the day*: Paul George ($7400) I’ve mocked about 20 lineups so far and he’s in all of them. PG just looks to be too cheap for his expected production and he fits nicely in a position that’s often hard to nail down.
*Chalk of the day I will gladly eat*: I guess Paul George fits here as well as he’s currently projected at over 50% ownership and is currently in 100% of the rosters I’ve built so far.
*My sleeper of the day*: Glenn Robinson III ($4000) Our fellow staff member J Thomson was first to point this pick out and talked me into it. GRob may very well make or break a roster tonight.
THE VALUE
Ivica Zubac ($4200) Zubac is not a pretty pick, or set in stone. If he can get his average 22 minutes tonight, he’ll pay off his salary with 6X value. It’s a big IF.
Glenn Robinson III ($4000) Glenn played over 30 minutes in the last game with Philadelphia being short-handed. He’s a good shooter in a good spot and could provide some relief to pay up for some of the stars you want.
I highly encourage all readers to join myself, and the rest of the WinDaily team in the Discord chat rooms as we break down and discuss our favorite plays. Thank you for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or hit me up on Twitter @IsaiahsProtocol.
GOODLUCK AND HAVE FUN
