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The PGA Tour travels to Texas for one of the last two chances to earn some valuable FedEx Cup points before the end of the 2021 calendar year. Last year’s winner, Carlos Ortiz, set the 72-hole course record at 267 (-13) on his way to taking home the title. Of note were both Hideki Matsuyama and Taylor Gooch, who also set 18 hole course records when they shot 7-under 63’s in the 4th round trying to run down Ortiz. Deki didn’t make the trip this year as I’m sure he’s still living it up after his win at the Zozo in Japan. I expect we’ll be hearing a bit more from the other two later in this article after both made great runs to try and catch last week’s winner, Viktor Hovland. We have another loaded field this week with 14 major champions as well as some previous winners here in Carlo Ortiz, Russell Henley, Ian Poulter, Lanto Griffin, Jim Herman and Adam Scott (coming off a T5 finish at The C.J. Cup).
Please keep in mind that even though the Houston Open has a long track record of statistics for us to look at, this is only the 2nd year it will be played at Memorial Park Golf Course. This 7432 yard, par 70 municipal course was redesigned by Tom Doak in 2019 with the help of Brooks Koepka. Distance will certainly be a factor with 5 lengthy par 3’s, and 9 of the 10 par 4’s stretching over 400 yards (5 of them are closer to 500+). One thing I’ve noticed about Texas golf is that there aren’t a lot of trees. So contrary to last week, our SG:OTT metric will lean heavier on distance than accuracy. This course also features strategically placed bunkers in front of fast undulating Bermuda greens, with plenty of short grass run-offs to boot. This should put a big emphasis on SG:APP for that all important 2nd shot. With a median 4-round cut line at -1, I don’t see this as a “birdie fest”. It looks to be more of an “all around game” type course. Grab some Bermuda putters and let’s take a look at who we’re targeting this week.
Key Metrics (in order)
SG:APP (approach)
SG:OTT
Driving Distance
Par 4’s 450-500
Par 3’s 200+
Par 5’s 550-600
SG:P (putting, Bermuda)
SG:ARG (around the green)
Initial Picks
Sam Burns ($11100) – I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t start here. What is there to say? He grades out in almost every category in the top 10, and continues to perform at an elite level. Sam’s also the Houston Open betting favorite. I’m just not sure I can get there at this price.
Scottie Scheffler ($10900) – Most likely where my core starts. A Texas native that has been very close to securing a win for some time now. I’m a bit biased as he’s one of my favorite golfers to begin with. 4th place last week at Mayakoba, and a T12 at The Scottish Open (also a Doak course) and now he’s going home looking for that elusive 1st PGA win.
Cam Smith ($10200) – Stats never jump out at you but top 10 in long par 4’s, top 10 SG:TOT. He’s elite once he gets close. T9 shaking the rust off at The C.J. Cup.
Brooks Koepka ($9900) – I gotta mention him because he DID help design the Houston Open course. He also finished T5 here last year. I hate some of the narratives floating around this guy, like he only plays these events if they promise to let his brothers (Chase flat $6K) SUSPECT skill set join the field. Not crazy about the state of his game right now. I’m not going here, but you should at least consider it.
Adam Scott ($9600) – You gotta at least give him a long hard contrarian (GPP) look here. His form is coming around a bit as reflected in some of his recent finishes.
Taylor Gooch ($9300) – I just love this kid. Many compliments coming from both his peers and the industry in regards to where he’s going. Top 10 in the Par 4 category. Here’s his season so far: T4, T11, T5, T11. His problem was spraying it off the tee until he proved me wrong last week. He’s got B2B T4’s here and set the 18 hole record on THIS COURSE last year. He’s a bit pricey, but you gotta give him a long hard look. Gooch is the 5th favorite on the betting board but 11th in salary on DK.
Aaron Wise ($9200) – I don’t know what else to say here either. Ranks best in this field. Just continues to perform at an elite level no matter where we go. T11 here last year and he’s a lot better now. Play him until he gives us a reason not to.
I absolutely LOVE starting my builds this week with 3 of the 4 (Scottie, Cam, Gooch, Wise) and mixing and matching. Gotta start moving a bit faster now though cause I can’t just list everyone in the field.
Carlos Ortiz ($9100) – Coming off a T2 in his home country last week at Mayakoba and making his 1st ever title defense.
Maverick McNealy ($8500) and Seamus Power ($8400) – Virtually the same across the betting board. Both are playing at the top of their games and I wouldn’t blame you for taking either one or both. I’m leaning on Power between the two for his length.
Mito Pereira ($7700) – I’m fading him this week because it just hasn’t been there, but you should at least consider him.
Taylor Pendrith ($7200) – Burned me last week, but I just can’t stop playing him. Rates out well in my model.
Ryan Palmer ($7100) – Too cheap for him here. Always plays well in Texas, he’s long, has decent form coming in, and finished T4 at The Scottish Open (that Doak course I mentioned earlier).
Greyson Sigg ($6700) – I just like this kid, and he can stripe it. Bermuda’s not his best but I like him to make the cut at this price.
Honorable Mention:
Brandon Grace, Chad Ramey, Jhonattan Vegas, Jason Day, Ian Poulter, Sahith Theegala, Aaron Rai, Hudson Swafford, Stephan Jaeger, Adam Svensson and Paul Barjon.
WinDaily has 4 other tools coming at you later this week to help with your process of building winning Draftkings lineups. Check out the live show on Tuesday night with Sia, Joel, and Spencer which will cover all things Houston Open. Both Antonio and Spencer also release articles later in the week as well. Check back on Wednesday evening to catch Steven’s ownership article to help you nail down those final low-owned guys that’ll get you that big GPP win. As always, make sure to stop into the WinDaily Discord room to ask questions from our stellar PGA team or just compare notes with some of the other members of our family.
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– Isaiah
