PGA: HONDA CLASSIC GPP PICKS

We are not going to see the low scores that we’ve been accustomed to seeing these past few weeks as the tests get much tougher in Florida.  The Honda Classic will be the first installment of the Florida swing and it will be a grind.  There is trouble pretty much everywhere as the rough can be penal, water is everywhere and the wind can be an issue, so the winner here is going to need to withstand various momentum swings.  You’ll notice that the upper tier of this group is relatively weak and that makes for some interesting ownership leverage opportunities.  Over half of my lineups will include an upper-tier golfer but the rest will fade the upper-tier entirely.  I will be happy to leave money on the table to create ownership leverage as the difference in talent between the middle tiers doesn’t seem as pronounced as other PGA Tour events. 

10k and above

Gary Woodland (10300/11300) – Woodland was a very good tee to green last week at the WGC (finished 12^th overall) and he’s been good on this track before.  One of his issues throughout his career has been his putting but that looks to be in good shape as well.  To the extent he does putt well, it’s usually on Bermuda.  I really don’t like much in this ‘elite’ pricing class, but Woodland separates himself from the others.  I will note that if I had to pivot in this range, it would be to Rickie Fowler and I will have him in a few lineups.

9k and above

Justin Rose (9900/11400) – This is a pure pedigree play.  Rose hasn’t been good on the PGA Tour as of late.  He missed the cut at the Farmers and finished a paltry 56^th at The Genesis.  However, he has been pretty solid on the European Tour and now that the FedEx season is in high gear, I think we can expect this recent FedEx winner to start putting things together.  With a field that is relatively weak at the top, it’s a really good opportunity for Rose to get his bloom back.

Billy Horschel (9200/10900) – This guy is going to be hit or miss but the “hit” makes him a worthy play in 20-30% of GPP lineups.  He gained off the tee last week and gained on approach.  And he’s always been good with the putter.  Horschel is the prototypical ‘streaky golfer’ and most of his PGA wins have come immediately after good performances from previous weeks.  That formula checks out here.  Don’t be overweight on Billy but the upside is too good to pass up.  I will note that I will have shares of Erik Van Rooyen and Sungjae Im in this range as well.

8k and above

Daniel Berger (8900/10600) – Likely to be a popular playso I won’t have too many shares but he has been hot lately with back to backTop 10’s at the Waste Management and Pro-Am. His course history isn’t great but he does have plenty of experience onthis track which is a plus regardless of course history.  Going to ride the recent history, but again,he’s going to be chalky so find your ownership leverage elsewhere. 

Ryan Palmer (8300/9700) – I have to be honest, I absolutely hate this range from a value standpoint so a lot of my lineups will include a mix of the 9k and above range and some of the 7k golfers that you see below.  With that in mind, I do think Palmer is worthy of a play as he has a proven track record at this course which includes a 4^th place finish last year and made cuts in 4 of his last 5 at the Honda.  His most recent history isn’t great but he has been good at times early this year and that includes a 4th place finish at Sony.   Palmer’s off the tee and shots gained approach numbers have been good.

7k and above

Harris English (7800/9800) – English hasn’t played on thePGA Tour in a month which always makes me a little nervous.  His season has been very up and down but hislast tournament was a very solid 16^th at the Waste ManagementOpen.  His tee to green numbers have beenexcellent this season and he’s been great on approach.  Add to that his course history over the lastthree years gets better and better with a 60^th, 33^rd and12^th. 

Rory Sabbatini (7400/8600) – His last two outings at PGANational have resulted in 17^th and 36^th place finishes,but his recent history has been very up and down.  With that said, he did make the cut at hismost recent event, The Genesis, and he finished 21^st at theSony.  This is admittedly more of a gutplay than anything and it will certainly create some ownership leverage. 

Matthew NeSmith (7200/8900) – I’m going against my rulethis week of course experience here because NeSmith has been that good.  He’s been on my radar and in my write-ups forwell over a month and I’ll keep him right here.  NeSmith has been making cuts at a torrid paceand he finished 11^th at the Pro-Am and 6^th last week inPuerto Rico.  He’s been good tee togreen, good on approach and excellent with the putter.  Lack of experience here might hurt, but hisplay has been good enough to overcome that.

Cameron Tringale (7100/8300) – Checkered course history, but his best finish at this event was just last year where he finished 36^th.  Add to that he has been a cut-maker so far this year with 4 out of 5 made cuts in his last 5 PGA Tour events.  His strokes gained approach (SGA) has been solid so far in 2020 and that will prove to be important this week.  The upside is limited with Tringale but he may be finding his rhythm at PGA National and I’m willing to add him to some GPP squads.  

6k and above

Tom Hoge (6900/8400) – I’m de-emphasizing course historythis week just a bit because things can go sideways quite fast.  With that said, I do like to see a golferhave course experience at PGA National (I’m distinguishing between good coursehistory versus course experience).  Hogehas played here 3 of the last 4 years and missed the cut the last twoyears.  So we’ve got course experiencebut course history is poor.  So now comesthe really good news:  Hoge has made hislast 5 cuts on the PGA Tour and that includes two Top 10’s and four Top25’s.  You’ll find plenty of elitegolfers who don’t have a recent history as stellar as Hoge.      

Stewart Cink (6700/7600) – Last we saw Cink he was finishing up a very respectable 38^th at the Pro-Am.  He’s another guy that checks the strokes gained approach box but hasn’t been great off the tee.  Cink is often underpriced, perhaps because of his limited upside and his variance off the tee, but at 6700 I’ll roll the dice with a seasoned veteran who has made 3 of his last 4 cuts at PGA National.

Scott Brown (6500/7700) – When we get this low in pricing we are firmly in the hit or miss range.   And Brown is certainly prone to fall on the “miss” side of the cut, but how do four cuts in a row at PGA National sound?  Good?  And I’m not sure this really registered with people, but Scott Brown finished 2nd at The Genesis.  The bad news is that he was underwhelming in a watered downfield in Puerto Rico last week and he missed four cuts in a row prior to The Genesis.  Again, we are in a precarious range here but I’ll get Brown into a couple of lineups hoping he can harness some of that Genesis magic, or at the very least, some of the consistency he seems to enjoy here at PGA National.

Vijay Singh – Hello everyone.  My name is Vijay.  I’m quite old.  But I finished 6^th here lastyear.  And 6^th in 2016.  If you need to free up some DFS dollars, Ionly cost 6,000. 

Sample Lineup 1:  Woodland,Rose, English, Sabbatini, NeSmith, Hoge

Sample Lineup 2:  Woodland,Horschel, Van Rooyen, English, Tringale, Brown

Sample Lineup 3:  Rose,Im, Berger, Palmer, Hoge, Cink

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