PGA: WGC-Mexico Championship GPP Picks

Once again I’m looking for ball strikers who can find the narrow fairways and guys who are good on approach.   Driving distance and accuracy is also going to be key here at the PGA WGC in Mexico.  I’m also going to put an emphasis on-course experience as this course can be a little tricky in terms of which side of the fairway to have the ball on approach and club selection in high altitude.  That doesn’t mean every player needs experience, but it’s certainly a preference from a tiebreaker standpoint.  My lineups will be a little overweight with respect to studs and duds (60%) and the rest will obviously be more balanced.  But make no mistake about it, a stud is winning this tournament.  And with that, let’s start with the studs:   

10k and above

Rory McIlroy (11500/12200) – Yes this is chalky but notas chalky as DJ.  I think Rory is youroutright winner.  He checks outeverywhere on this course including course history.  His strokes gained around the green and teeto green are all lights out. 

Jon Rahm (10600/11800) – Rahm has a checkered course history on this PGA course with a 45^th last year but the 3rd place in 2017.   He was decent last week but not spectacular and for GPP he may get overlooked relative to the seemingly obvious plays like Rory and Dustin.  He should be the lowest or second-lowest owned golfer in this range.  I should note that I will have a small amount of Justin Thomas coming off his horrible performance last week which should lower his ownership just enough to catch some leverage.  Keep in mind that there are only 72 golfers in this field, and therefore you will see ownership percentages a little higher than normal across the board. 

9k and above

Webb Simpson (9800/11400) – From a value standpoint, I really don’t like much in this range.  Webb has been really good this year, but he has played this PGA course twice and has barely cracked the top 40 both times.  This is due in part to him losing strokes off the tee each of the last two times he’s played here.  I’m confident his recent form takes over and he makes the necessary adjustments but I’m not going to be overweight on Webb. 

Xander Shauffele (9400/11100) – Xander’s form and specifically his ball-striking have been great.  Add to that two Top ’20s in his last two PGA WGC’s on this course.  Great value here.   Again, I don’t love this range but I do like Xander more than Webb.

8k and above

Paul Casey (8700/10700) – Great course history (3^rd, 12^th, and 166th) but recent history hasn’t been great which should keep ownership lower than many of the sexier names in this range like Sergio, Morikawa, Woodland, and Bubba, all of whom I will be fading.

Patrick Reed (8400/10100) – Three years of history on this PGA course which was highlighted by a 14^th place finish last year (was 3^rd going into Sunday last year).  He was up and down last week at The Genesis but overall has had a solid year which includes a 6^th at the Farmers and a 2^nd at the Sentry.   Reed has also been solid lately on Poa annua greens.  Reed is also the type of guy that desperately wants to be in the Ryder Cup and a win here automatically qualifies him.  Good value here.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (8000/9600) – Fitzy is a little bit of a sneaky play that may provide some ownership leverage.  He actually appears to be a touch overpriced, but a closer look shows that Fitz has been quite good on courses in high elevation, including two wins at the PGA Omega European Masters in 2017 and 2018.  His track record on this course is also solid and he’s coming off a respectable 30^th last week at the Genesis.  I won’t have too many shares of Fitz, but he will be in 10-20 percent of my lineups.

7k and above

Abraham Ancer (7900/9600) – Course history hasn’t been great here but he has been very good this year and he’s just under the radar enough to pick up some ownership leverage.  To the extent that he’s owned at all, it’ll largely be because he’s playing in his home country and home-field advantage certainly doesn’t hurt. 

Sungjae Im (7900/9700) – Most models have Sungjae ratingout very well on this course.  He’s a greatball striker and his ability to consistently make birdies has obvious value.  He’s also become a little chalky so pick upyour ownership leverage elsewhere. 

Bernd Wiesberger (7400/8400) – BDubs hasn’t been good as of late but he is Top 25 in the world and that merits some attention all the way down in this range (I’ll note that Matthew Fitzpatrick is also Top 25).  I don’t want to put too much stock in the PGA world rankings as Molinari is also pretty high and that is a little shocking, but the point is that Wiesberger has had plenty of success on the Euro Tour and is worth a shot in this range.

Byeong Hun An (7400/9200) – Hasn’t played since the PGA Waste Management in Phoenix where he finished 9^th.  He’s played this course twice and was underwhelming with 45^th and 48^th finishes, but his birdie or better scores and strokes gained tee to green has been good this season and I’m willing to take a chance here.  I won’t have more than 10-20 percent of An.

6k and above

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (6900/8500) – Who?  One thing is for sure, this guy needs a nickname.  The South African actually won last week at a Sunshine Tour event, which is certainly a big step down from the PGA Tour, but he has competed well in other events earlier this year including the Dubai Desert Classic (finished 2^nd after losing in a playoff) which featured the likes of Bryson, Pepperell, Fleetwood, Stenson, Sergio, Hovland and a host of other big names.  Add to that, CB3 (there, he has his nickname) has a track record of success on tree-lined courses like this one and has had success in altitude.

Sebastian Munoz (6800/7900) – Another guy with no coursehistory but you’re going to get a lot of that in this range.  If you read The Range on WinDaily you wouldhave seen that Munoz checks a lot of boxes and is certainly worth a stash in afew lineups. 

Carlos Ortiz (6600/8800) – Ortiz is from Mexico but hasno competitive history on this course.  Whilethat’s not ideal, he has made the cut in 4 out of his last 5 events and thatincludes top 30 finishes in his last two. 

Sample Lineup 1: Rory, Reed, Sneds, Im, Ancer, Ortiz

Sample Lineup 2: Rahm, Xander, Casey, An, Bezuidenhout, Munoz

Sample Lineup 3: Rory, Reed, Casey, Im, Ortiz, Bezuidenhout

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