Free Agency Fantasy Football Predictions 2021

Free Agency Fantasy Football Predictions 2021

One of my favorite times of the NFL season is the months of March and April. During a normal year, the NFL Combine kicks everything off and that rolls right into free agency and then the draft. I’ve followed free agency closely for the past ten years and have, what I feel is, extensive knowledge of these signings. The legal tampering period starts Monday, March 15th at 4 pm EST. I believe that the Jaguars, Jets, Patriots, Washington, Colts, and Bengals will be the most active teams as they all have cap space north of $50,000,000. There will also be an unprecedented amount of talented veteran players hitting the market over the next few days as teams try and get below the estimated salary cap of $185,000,000. My thought process with writing these breakdowns is where I see the most success for these players based on cap space, depth chart, and fit into the offensive scheme. Let’s get to my Free Agency Fantasy Football Predictions 2021.

Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars – 5 years/ $95,000,000

“I’m coming home, coming home, tell the world that I’m coming home” or however that Diddy song goes. The 27-year-old Allen Robinson returns to Jacksonville with a vengeance after years of horrible QB play, he finally gets a chance to play with a potential bonafide superstar. This may be a bit of a homer prediction (since I may be the only Jaguars fan you know) but I think this is a very possible destination for Allen Robinson. According to Spotrac, the Jaguars have over $85,000,000 in cap space. Something that many talking heads aren’t mentioning is that the salary cap will go up next year because of fans returning to stadiums and this new monster TV deal that will be signed in the coming weeks. Keeping that in mind, the Jaguars could spend all of that $85,000,000 and then when the cap shoots up to around $215,000,000, they will have another $30,000,000 in cap space in 2021. This will allow them to resign DJ Chark, the only free agent in 2022 that is worth resigning. 

Fantasy Analysis – Imagine an offense with Allen Robinson, DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, James Robinson, and Trevor Lawrence manning the QB position. You have a true deep threat in Chark. The impossible to tackle Laviska Shenault (22 missed tackles in 2020). James Robinson doing it all at the RB position. Allen Robinson completes this offense by being a true number one receiver. He makes every single catch and will put up monster numbers if he finally has a quarterback that can throw the ball where it needs to go. Find ways to acquire him in any league you can if he signs in Jacksonville.

Final Stat Predictions – 101 receptions, 1320 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns

Kenny Golladay – Washington Football Team – 5 years/ $90,000,000

Kenny Golladay will sign a big-time deal. The question though is with which team. His talent allows him to be a number one wide receiver on any team that needs one. But how about pairing him with another worldly talent in Terry McLaurin. Washington has moved on from two of their starting quarterbacks from last year (Alex Smith and Dwayne Haskins), so where do they go from here? If you are a Draftnik like myself, you see and hear rumblings of Washington trying to trade up into the top 10. If they somehow land this massive deal, they could grab Justin Fields, Trey Lance, or Mac Jones. But what if the Football Team lands a marquee talent like Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson. There are also fallback plans like Teddy Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Trask, or Kellen Mond. Then all of a sudden this offense is one to be reckoned with. Add in the young superstar Antonio Gibson coming out the backfield and this is another offense that can score with any team. 

Fantasy Analysis – This move does depend on the quarterback that holds down the fort next year for Washington. Golladay is a wide receiver that can succeed despite the quarterback situation but if he has one of those early drafted quarterbacks or Watson/Wilson his ceiling is incredibly high. He and McLaurin could each have over 1400 receiving yards. There could be shades of the “Greatest Show on Turf” but instead on that horrible FedEx Field.

Final Stat Predictions – 75 receptions, 1114 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns

Chris Godwin – New England Patriots – 4 years/ $70,000,000 Tagged by Tampa Bay

What a year for Chris Godwin. Plays with Tom Brady. Wins the Super Bowl. Signs a massive deal with an NFL team. And he’s only 25 years old! During Godwin’s breakout 2019 season, he had 1333 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. He had to take a bit of a backseat in 2020 when Brady came down as he brought some of his buddies with him (Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown). Bill Belichick knows he needs to improve his offense. Julian Edelman is not the same as he used to be, N’Keal Harry was a waste of a first-round pick and the rest are bad (Jakobi Meyers, Matthew Slater, Donte Moncrief). I could very much see Chris Godwin and Hunter Henry signing with the Pats and transforming that offense to fit around whoever the quarterback is in 2021 (cough Jimmy Garoppolo cough).

Fantasy Analysis – Godwin coming to New England is something that needs to happen if the Patriots want to be competitive. He’s a tough, hard-nosed, and difficult to cover receiver that can create separation. If Jimmy G signs with New England, Godwin will have a monster season. He will be utilized all over the field and will be a PPR monster just like in 2019.

JuJu Smith-Schuster – New York Jets – 5 years/ $85,000,000

This seems like a match made in heaven. JuJu loves the spotlight so I can only assume that both New York teams are at the top of his list to help build his brand off the field. Don’t get it wrong though, JuJu is a dog on the field. I understand that Big Ben was a shell of himself last season but JuJu having 8.6 yards per reception in 2020 is utterly ridiculous. He’s going to want to go somewhere with a creative mind calling the plays. Insert Mike LaFleur, younger brother of Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. I’m sure there will be plenty of Dodgeball references that Smith-Schuster can come up with but I’ll dodge those for now. LaFleur has been the passing game coordinator for the past four seasons and has worked side by side with Kyle Shanahan. The way that the 49ers use their receivers in a multitude of ways, JuJu will love the innovation.

Fantasy Analysis – Imagine this scenario. Jets keep Sam Darnold and then trade down out of the second pick in the draft and accumulate more picks. They then take the best available offensive lineman and sign a veteran guard in free agency (Joe Thuney). This offense all of a sudden looks pretty damn good. In that offense, JuJu can flourish as Darnold will have more time to throw deep balls and timing routes. Potentially add Chris Carson as well and this offense will be transformed with a creative offensive mind running the show.

Final Stat Predictions – 101 receptions, 1260 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns

Aaron Jones – Miami Dolphins – 4 years/ $44,000,000

Every single mock draft has the Dolphins taking a running back at some in the first two rounds. Yes, they do have a need at the position but the way that Tua Tagovailoa played last year it would behoove them to have a veteran running back to help ease him into the league. Enter Aaron Jones. He can do it all: goal line, catching passes out of the backfield and he can block. He will earn Tua’s trust right away and will rack up the stats doing so. I can very much see the Dolphins taking one of the top three wide receivers in this year’s draft. Having an offense with Aaron Jones next to Devante Parker, Mike Gesicki and any combo of Devonta Smith/ Jaylen Waddle/ Ja’Marr Chase would benefit Tua’s growth.

Fantasy Analysis – Aaron Jones going from the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau to South Beach would be a statement move by the Dolphins. It screams that they are ready to compete with the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East title but it also allows Aaron Jones to do everything he was already doing in Green Bay. He won’t have to take a backseat to anybody and will be a full-time three-down back, which in the fantasy world is what we want our running backs to be. He’s averaged 48 catches and 415 receiving yards the past two seasons to go along with over 1000 rushing yards. Miami’s running backs combined for 65 catches last year. Aaron Jones will dominate next year.

Final Stat Predictions – 1250 rushing yards, 55 receptions, 465 receiving yards and 15 total touchdowns.

Curtis Samuel – Los Angeles Chargers – 4 years/ $48,000,000

Justin Herbert proved many of his doubters wrong last year. He looked spectacular. There are still some areas that he can improve upon but he is well on his way to being a stalwart quarterback. Adding Curtis Samuel next to another speedster in Jaylen Guyton can help open up this offense. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are different types of wide receivers. Mike Williams is a jump ball receiver and he’s 50/50 to come down with the ball or get hurt doing so. Keenan Allen is a masterful route runner and creates great separation. Austin Ekeler is used out of the backfield a lot but signing Samuel wouldn’t take away from his productivity. 

Fantasy Analysis – Joe Lombardi (the son of Vince Lombardi) is now the offensive coordinator for the Chargers. After working as the Saints quarterback coach for the past five seasons, Lombardi has a plethora of knowledge ready to use at his disposal. He watched as Sean Payton utilized Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas all over the field and it sounds like Lombardi will bring creative schemes to LA. Curtis Samuel will line up all over the field. Catching passes out of the backfield, over the middle of the field, and taking deep shots with him. That’s the beauty of signing a guy like Samuel because you can do whatever you want with him. He had 1000 combined receiving and rushing yards last year and it will be safe to assume he can exceed those stats.

Final Stat Predictions – 75 receptions, 1010 receiving yards, 215 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns

Chris Carson – New York Jets – 4 years/ $36,000,000

As I mentioned above, I predict Chris Carson will sign with the Jets (along with JuJu Smith-Schuster). Carson is a hard-nosed, big running back with a bit of an injury history but when he’s on the field he is a great back to watch. The Jets will add at least a few offensive linemen in the offseason to supplement their already incredible left tackle in Mekhi Becton. With this being done, Carson will have the opportunity to find a few open holes that were never there in Seattle.

Fantasy Analysis – New Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur watched firsthand as Kyle Shanahan’s outside/wide zone running scheme carved up defenses. One thing I’m sure LaFleur noticed is how effective that offense can be with a talented running back at the position. A much better pass catcher than thought, Carson will be used more in the passing game than he was in Seattle and that will increase his fantasy stock tremendously. I’m sure having a better offensive line will help as well.

Final Stat Predictions – 1230 rushing yards, 45 receptions, 275 receiving yards and 12 total touchdowns

Hunter Henry – New England Patriots – 4 years, $40,000,000

Much of the Patriots’ success over the years (outside of Tom Brady) was having a dominant tight end in the offense. With the Patriots potentially bringing in Chris Godwin and Hunter Henry, the offense will look more like it was in years past. Henry is a big tight end standing at 6’5 and 250 pounds but he comes with an injury history (sounds a lot like Rob Gronkowski). The Patriots need playmakers on offense and if you add a guy like Henry, it helps move the offense along. I’m sure Josh McDaniels has a gameplan from years past that he can rehash. 

Fantasy Analysis – Big, athletic, productive tight ends are hard to find. In 2020, the only tight ends that surpassed 1000 receiving yards were Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Throw in a healthy George Kittle and Mark Andrews and that number five tight end spot is wide open. In season-long and daily fantasy, tight end is tough to navigate. You either pay up for Travis Kelce or try and find a value pick. Hunter Henry may very well start as the value pick, but midway through the season, he will be dominating the NFL. 

Final Stat Predictions – 72 receptions, 980 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns

Will Fuller V – Cincinnati Bengals – 4 years, $60,000,000

How about we load up Joe Burrow with offensive playmakers? Yes, Cincy needs to address the offensive line and with how the draft shakes up they should have their left tackle spot filled. So Joe will have more time to throw the ball in 2021. Burrow was among the league’s worst last year as a deep ball passer but he was thrown into the fire in a covid year with a terrible offensive line. Next year should be much better especially if you give him a true deep threat with home run ability. Will Fuller will be a fascinating free agency watch as he has so much talent but the injury history is quite worrisome. 

Fantasy Analysis – We finally saw last year what the former Notre Dame standout could do if he remained healthy (albeit despite the PEDs suspension). He will be 27 by the time the NFL season starts, and he will be suspended one game, but in an offense surrounded by talented players like Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon, Fuller could be the speedster that Cincinnati had hoped for when they drafted John Ross III. 

Final Stat Predictions – 65 receptions, 1025 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns

Leonard Fournette – Pittsburgh Steelers – 3 years/ $21,000,000

If I’m the Pittsburgh Steelers, I see this season as a one-year “let’s go for it” season. Big Ben is going to retire afterward so they are going to push all the chips in. The Steelers have been another popular rookie running back mock draft destination but if they sign a back before the draft, they don’t have to corner themselves into drafting the biggest need on their team. Doing this gives them the freedom to select the best left tackle or best player available. Leonard Fournette has dominated the Steelers. In the three games he has played against them, he averages 128 rushing yards per game and has 6 touchdowns. His game against them in the 2018 AFC Divisional Game was a sight to behold. 109 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns in a signature win for the Jaguars. I would assume this deal would have about $10,000,000 guaranteed so he can be cut after 2021 with very little dead cap. Low risk, high reward deal.

Fantasy Analysis – The Steelers saw firsthand what Fournette can do to a team. “Playoff Lenny” can dominate games when motivated. He’s a big, strong, fast back that can hit the hole and grind games out. This is exactly what the Steelers need. They need to get back to their ground and pound ways as Roethlisberger is a significantly better player when he has the support of the ground game. Fournette would be given the entire workload and if Pittsburgh can supplement the rest of the offensive line, this could be a great signing for both parties.

Final Stat Predictions – 1050 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 250 yards and 12 touchdowns

Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – 4 years/ $160,000,000

Well, this was written and about 10 minutes later Dak signed. Still worth the read though? Tagged or signed to a long-term extension, Dak Prescott will be under center for the Dallas Cowboys in 2021. And simply put he’s too good not to be. Dak has been incredible throwing the deep pass, which is something Jerry Jones must value considering he took wide receiver CeeDee Lamb with the 17th pick in the 2020 draft. At the time of his gruesome injury, Dak led the league with a 135.5 passer rating on deep passes. The combination of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup is easily one of the best WR trios in the NFL and I could see even more success next year. Some will combat this stat and say that Dak needed to throw the ball because his defense was that bad and they were constantly losing. While that may be true, the defense KNEW he was going to throw the ball on nearly every down. So the edge rushers can pin their ears back and go get the QB on every play. Signing Dak Prescott to a deal will help the entire Dallas team perform better. 

Fantasy Analysis – Dak being the quarterback of this team has many fantasy football ramifications. Dak will be a top 5 fantasy QB next year. Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb will all be top 30 WRs next year. Ezekiel Elliott will be a top 7 running back next year (364 rushing yards, 24 catches, and 6 total TDs in the five games with Dak). But the biggest takeaway from all this is that Dallas’s defense will once again be bad. This will lead to more games where the Cowboys will have to play catch up. In just five games last year, Dak threw for 1856 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. Also, keep in mind that Dak got hurt midway through the third quarter of that fifth game. He could have very easily thrown for 2000 yards in five games. 400 yards per game and 4 touchdowns a game is pretty unfathomable, even in a league with Patrick Mahomes.

Final Stat Predictions – 5049 passing yards and 45 touchdowns.

Thanks for checking out this Free Agency Fantasy Football Predictions 2021! Appreciate the read-through. I have also put together a comprehensive free agency prediction of the top 140 players, a 2021 NFL mock draft, and an up-to-date salary cap breakdown with the predicted players – bit.ly/3arhKzR. Be on the lookout for some more NFL offseason articles where we’ll even be doing a mock draft breakdown!