Team Breakdowns

Red Bull

Not much to say. The class of the field could be expected to win every race this year. 39 dk points over the last 3 for Max ($15,400) with teammate Sergio Perez ($10,400) scoring 6.7 dk points over his last 3.

Red Bull ($14,100) has averaged 55 dk points over the last 3 races and has been the highest-scoring “player” in F1 DFS.

McLaren

McLaren has taken advantage of the last 3 races where they have come alive after significant upgrades to the car. That being said, they were expected to be a decent car so their coming to life in the last 3 races does not nullify their previous 9 results. You have to ride the hot hand though and Lando Norris ($9400) has averaged 20 dk points during the McLaren mid-season performance. Teammate Oscar Piastri ($8400) has scored 7.6 dk over his last 3. 

McLaren should take to this track very well. Have exposure to all things McLaren including Oscar.

McLaren has averaged 26 dk points over the last 3.

Mercedes

Being limited overall Mercedes ($9300) leaves some to be desired, but not as bad as the rest of the pack not named Red Bull. While this season will most likely not get a race win, Gerore Russell ($8000) has scored 11.3 dkfp over 3 and teammate Lewis Hamilton ($9800) has scored 20 dkfp over his last 3.  

Even with Lewis Hamilton qualifying outside the top 10, I would expect the race pace of the Mercedes to come to life and put both Mercs in the top 10. I’ll have exposure to George as well. 

Mercedes has averaged 29.6 dk points over the last 3 races.

Aston Martin

Aston Martin has had its recent form bottom out over the last 3 races, after being a top contender at the beginning of the season, and looks to rebound this weekend in Zandvoort. The car performs well in slow to medium corners which are plenty on the Zandervoot circuit. Fernando Alonso ($7800) has scored 9.3 dk points over his last 3 while teammate Lance Stroll ($6000) has scored just 2.7 dk points. 

Alonso looks like his old, early 2023 self. A strong play this weekend. Lance Stroll, not so much. 

Aston has scored 12.3 dk points over the last 3 races.

Ferrari

Team Ferrari clearly is teaching Haas how to build race cars, as their characteristics are very similar to Haas. Ferrari ($8700) is fantastic in a single lap, but they have poor race pace and are run by arguably the worst race strategist on the grid. With the team openly talking about improvements to this year’s car for next year’s race season, I think we’ve seen the zenith of this team this season. 

Charles Leclerc ($8800) has demonstrated his ability to maintain his race pace, netting him 12.3 dk points over the last 3. Meanwhile, teammate Carlos Sainz ($7400) has scored negative dk points in 2 of the last 3 races. I’ll continue to give Charles the advantage in Zandervoot, however, it’s not a priority play. 

The Ferrari’s have averaged 14 dk points over the last 3 races.

Alfa Romeo

The inconsistency of Alfa continues to plague their 2023 season. Valtteri Bottas ($4800) has scored an average of 6 dk points per race in the last 3, compared to Zhou’s ($3200) 0 dkfp. The car performs well in slow corners, but in quick corners, it struggles. Also, it has to contend with extra drag meaning it’s slow in the straights. In Zandervoot this weekend, I would keep my expectations low. 

Alfa Romeo has averaged 2 dk points over the last 3 races.

Alpine

Take a seat, Alfa Romeo, It’s time for the kings of inconsistency this season to take center stage. It’s pure feast or famine from Alpine with podium finishes in Monaco, tagged along with double DNFs in Azerbaijan. They are now 6th in average performance, ahead of Haas and behind McLaren. With no leadership to steer out of these choppy waters, trusting Alpine to be featured in our DK lines is ill-advised. Pierre Gasly ($5200) has averaged 0 dk points over the past 3, while teammate Esteban Ocon ($5000) has produced an average of 4 dk points over his last 3 races. 

Ocon qualified in P17 for this Dutch GP, he does not look like much of a play. Pierre isn’t anything of note either. 

Alpine has averaged 2 dk points over the last 3 races. 

Williams

It’s always fun when Williams is in the mix and they have come to play this season. They won’t be winning any races, but what has happened has been an understanding of the car by the team which has resulted in okay finishes sometimes within the final point-paying positions. With Logan Sargent ($3000) *eagle scream!* scoring a whopping 1.7 dk points over his last 3 (calm down with all those points Logan) he remains a fine value for our purposes. Alex Albon ($4600) has averaged 8.3 dk points over his last 3 which has been okay for value.

In all 3 practice sessions and through qualifying, the Williams has been firmly in the top 10. It’s hard to overlook, and just as hard to trust. Have exposure, and even some Williams constructors, but don’t go overboard. Logan Sargent is the first US driver to make it into Q3 he then proceeds to put in the wall after setting a time. Merica! Baby. Still a play but proceed with caution. 

Williams ($3100) has averaged 3.3 DK points over the last 3 races.

Alpha Tauri

Yuki Tsunoda ($3800) has driven the hell out of his Alpha. He has beaten his teammate 2 out of the last 3 races; out of 12, he has beaten his teammate 9 times. You want Yuki starting from p14 or worse to get maximum scoring value, the circumstance this race weekend gives pause to that statement. 

Daniel Ricciardo has averaged 4.5 dk points since replacing dumpster fire Nyck deVries. 

*Danny Ric has a hand issue so he won’t be driving this weekend, Liam Lawson ($3400) will be his replacement. Yuki should comfortably beat Lawson, but his upside might be capped as he starts a touch high* 

AlphaTauri has averaged 1 dk point over the last 3 races.

Advice:

Drivers: The McLaren drivers are strongly in play. Value guys like Tsunoda, Albon, and Hulkenberg are strong values in order to get to Max and Red Bull racing. Those guys will be chalky though so in Gpps have exposure elsewhere.

Teams to be light on:

Haas, Alfa, and Alpine These teams can have a wide range of outcomes so best to avoid them at all costs.

As always if you want to chop up some plays, @tcuz86 in the Discord. I appreciate you taking the time to read this edition of Formula 1: Race Week, Dutch GP.