Warren Kosoy 
Welcome to another edition of Formula 1 Race Week: Miami Grand Prix 2023. Formula 1 comes stateside for the first time of the 2023 season, as the grid runs around the Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins, for 52 laps in anger. Just like last week Sergio Perez’s Red Bull sits atop of the starting order, as chaos reigned supreme on qualifying on Saturday.
Free Practice 3 really demonstrated how wide open this race was going to be as top teams struggled with tyre wear, and traffic, not to mention the tight corners that caught a few drivers out.
As qualifying continued the underutilized Miami circuit came to life. The track gained more grip every lap, and as the laps quickened, the speeds came down. teams that did not look competitive in the practice sessions started showing pace, and some teams got caught out by the ever-changing conditions. One team that seemed to not be affected was…
Team Breakdowns
Red Bull
The Red Bull rocket ship powers down range as it shows its class once again. However it’s not the Red Bull one would expect to be on top, Sergio Perez ($11,600) starts on the pole as his love affair with street circuits continues. I’m sure Sergio will take it as his teammate Max Verstappen ($14,600) starts in P8 due to Charles Leclerc putting his Ferrari in the wall with less than 2 minutes left in Q3. Sergio demonstrated his ability in these kinds of circuits all season long, but I would be remiss to mention he played second fiddle to his teammate all weekend up to that point.
Playing Max or Sergio is a decision that is going to shape your lineup. Both have merit to be played, as does Red Bull ($13,300) in the Constructor spot. What makes Max more difficult to play this week is that during practice a trend was noticeable, any car that went off the racing line found itself on a dirty circuit, and as drivers put the throttle down, their offline car would lose the back end, spinning out. Max is in another league, so if there was a driver to make this track his own and cut through the field from P9, it’s him.
I have to give the politician answer here, having exposure to both, maybe even 50/50 is a strategy the field will definitely implement, and it makes sense. In Multi entry GPPs have exposure to both, in single entries, you have to make a choice, and what you like in the other 5 positions will dictate your choice, as those other 5 spots are up in the air as well.
Ferrari
A team I probably won’t find much in my lineups is Ferrari ($9900). Charles LeClerc ($9800) starts in P7 and Carlos Sainz ($7600) starts in P3. Carlos has every opportunity for a podium finish while Charles seems to go for broke in qualifying. A sprinkle or two might be in order, but the Scuderia is not one I will be focusing on this weekend in DFS.
Mercedes
Oh Mercedes, how you have fallen. Lewis Hamilton ($9000) and George Russell ($8400) looked well off the pace all weekend and further demonstrated that in qualifying. I’d expect George to stay ahead of his teammate, but that is a premium to pay for those 5 beat-teammate points and what should be a top-10 finish. I do think Mercedes ($9500) goes for a long run, 1 stop strategy, but even that might not be the move for a car that’s struggling with tyre wear and proper setup.
Aston Martin
Lance Stroll ($6400) made things easy on us as he failed to reach Q2, he starts in P18. His team “got greedy” and kept back a new set of soft tyres as they imagined they would advance to the later stages of qualifying easily. Lance’s Aston is capable of taking advantage of his P18 start and should be able to pass a good amount of cars. Lance comes with risk so keep that in mind.
His teammate Fernando Alonso ($9400) is in a prime position in the top 5. The track is difficult to pass on, and Fernando is just as difficult to pass. I like Fernando to beat his teammate, finish in the top 5 and score maximum points in his Aston Martin ($8900).
Alpine
Alpine ($5200) bounced back from a forgettable Baku and is clearly in contention for the mid-range battle this weekend. Both Alpines piloted by Pierre Gasly ($5800) and Esteban Ocon ($5400) showed out this weekend and were comfortably in the top 10 throughout practice and qualifying sessions. Alpine makes for a solid value constructor and both drivers are firmly in play.
McLaren
Lando Norris ($6000) and Oscar Piastri ($4800) look like underperformers in McLaren. Not much there in terms of DFS value.
Alfa Romeo
Alfa came into the weekend looking off, but as Saturday went on, it was clear the Alfa Romeo ($3900) was taking to the circuit well. Valtteri Bottas ($4600) qualified P 10 with his teammate, Zhou Guanyu ($4200) in P14. This race is a pure risk/reward and Bottas qualified in the top 10 last year and finished P7, he’s a worthy risk in this race.
Williams
Alex Albon ($5200) gained 9 positions here last year and was quick all weekend. Starting in P11 he might be thin in terms of DFS value but worthy of a sprinkle. His teammate Logan Sargent ($3000) comes home to race in his home state of Florida. Outside of that, Logan Sargent is not much of a play in this race other than being the bare minimum.
Alpha Tauri
While the F1 world was singing the praises of Yuki Tsunoda ($4400) his teammate Nyck Debris, err DeVries ($3200), came to race this weekend. I doubt that matters much though, as neither two are priorities as the AlphaTauri ($3000) is a junk of a race car.
Haas
While Nico Hulkenberg ($3600) was cruising in the top half of the grid all weekend, it was his teammate Kevin Magnussen ($3800) who qualified better on Saturday. Both are in play, especially in GPPs.
Constructors
Pair Red Bull ($13,300) with Max and Sergio. Ferrari ($9900) for some differentiation. Outside of those two, Alpine ($5200) looks like good value. Red Bull should continue to be the highest DFS scorer and a top priority in all formats.
If you have any questions or if you’d like to talk strategy @tcuz86 in Discord.
