Allan Fabrykant 
PEREIRA V HERNANDEZ
We are one more card away from UFC Vegas 100! and we have a stellar lineup for tonight’s UFC action. We have 11 fights lined up for tonight’s card, with the main event featuring two exciting middleweights looking to push towards a spot in the top 5. There are great matchup all throughout tonight card so be sure to check out the top picks and plays below! Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 99 Pereira vs Hernandez.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Matheus Nicolau vs Asu Almabaev
Nicolau has only recently lost to the best of the best in the Flyweight division. Outside of the losses against Perez and Royval, Nicolau was absolutely rolling with six straight wins. Nicolau also has an underrated grappling game and sneaky power, as we saw against Matt Schnell, where he secured two Knockdowns en route to a second-round KO.
Almabaev’s opponent’s history is also concerning to me; his success in the UFC has come through grappling and holding down his opponents for 15 minutes. That is not a viable strategy against Nicolau, who, aside from being a BJJ black belt, also holds a 93% takedown defence rate. Not to mention, Almabaev had multiple fights outside of the UFC against opponents with bad records (i.e. when he was 7-2, he fought a 1-1 fighter; when he was 11-2, he fought a 1-0 fighter and when he was 14-2 he fought a 4-0 fighter). I have yet to see a convincing performance from Almabaev, and I definitely haven’t seen enough to justify how much of a favorite he is in tonight’s fight. I love the value on Nicolau in this spot
MY UFC DFS PICK: Matheus Nicolau by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND ROUND-KO).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Jake Hadley vs Cameron Smotherman
Hadley has picked up a strong win following two disappointing decision losses. Tonight, Hadley is up against UFC debutant Cameron Smotherman.
Hadley has incredible boxing and is able to take some shots in the pocket to land heavy strikes. Its safe to say that Hadley is the strongest opponents Smotherman has ever faced and its safe to say that with Smotherman coming in on short-notice, he’s facing quite a mismatch.
Expect this fight to stay on the feet, with Hadley taking control of the action early and either putting him out when he gets the right opportunity or striking his way to a clear unanimous decision victory. We gotta ride with Hadley in this tremendous spot tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jake Hadley by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Robelis Despagne vs Austen Lane
This fight almost doesn’t seem fair. Lane is not a UFC calibre fighter, he has lost (1 NC) every UFC fight he has been in and is going up against a certified killer in Robelis Despagne. Out of his five wins, Despagne has five first-round KOs. Despite, losing in his last fight to Waldo Cortes-Acosta, he is in a much better position to perform in this matchup.
Despagne’s power will be too much for Lane to handle. I don’t even see Lane getting a chance to settle into this fight; it should be done early on in the first round. Lane’s only hope is to shoot for takedowns, but the reality is that he is severely outmatched here.
The strongest value in this fight is Despagne to win via First Round KO -115. The first fight on tonight’s card will be starting out with a BANG.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Robelis Despagne by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Michel Pereira vs Anthony Hernandez
Pereira is an extremely creative fighter, and after four straight performance bonuses, he is lined up for some big things in the UFC. Standing in his way is Anthony Hernandez, who has strung together five consecutive UFC wins, albeit against much weaker competition. Pereira is in an incredible position here against a fighter who goes for takedowns and has less striking activity than he does.
Aside from being creative Pereira throws some hard punches. He’s got crazy power as we saw in his first round KO win over Andre Petroski and he has incredible durability as we saw in his fight against Ponzinibbio.
Pereira also holds a BJJ black belt and an extremely impressive 94% takedown defence rate against UFC opponents. He will take control of this fight early, set the pace and gain a big edge on the feet over Hernandez. Pereira will look to keep this fight on the feet and put Hernandez under early pressure. I see him having a lot of success in this matchup.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Michel Pereira by SECOND ROUND-KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION.)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s ten-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Fight to Go the Distance (Jessica Penne vs Elise Reed) -250
Robelis Despagne (Double Chance KO/Decision) -325
Fight to Go the Distance (Joselyne Edwards vs Tamires Vidal) -330
Jake Hadley ML -550
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Kyler Phillips (Double Chance KO/Decision) -225
- Michel Pereira +110
