Allan Fabrykant 
BURNS V BRADY
After a week-long layoff, tonight’s UFC action brings us back to Las Vegas for an exciting 12-fight card. We have legends of the game like Gilbert Burns and Jessica Andrade returning to the octagon and a few up-and-coming prospects making appearances on tonight’s card. The main event will feature Burns and fellow welterweight contender Sean Brady competing for a coveted top 5 spot in the UFC Welterweight rankings. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 97 Burns vs Brady.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Yanal Ashmouz vs Trevor Peek
It was a little tough to weed out an underdog pick that really stood out to me on tonight’s card, but after a little searching, I found this one to be like a sore thumb. As much as it sucks to say, Peek’s hype train is pretty well derailed.
He came out of the contender series in 2022 in style with six straight KO victories to his name heading into the DWCS, and he lived up to his hype by securing a KO finish that night and a first-round finish in his UFC debut. Since then, he has gone 1-2 in his last three fights, with all three performances being generally subpar fights that went to the judges’ scorecards. Peek did not throw a lot of strikes, went for a lot of takedowns (only 53% career takedown accuracy) and ended up getting taken down for extended periods of time in both of his losses.
Ashmouz is 1-1 in his UFC career and is a very good defensive fighter. He will be able to avoid Peek’s early shots and wear him down as the fight goes on.
With Peek’s confidence at an all-time low, this is a great position for an up-and-comer like Ashmouz to secure a surprise win.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Yanal Ashmouz by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND ROUND-KO).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Steve Garcia Jr. vs Kyle Nelson
Despite Nelson’s recent successes, it will take a gifted performance that I doubt he is capable of top put away the freight train that is Steve Garcia Jr.
Garcia Jr. is coming off four straight KO victories with six knockdowns over those four fights and two performance of the night honours. To say Garcia is locked-in is an understatement, and although Nelson has turned his form around as of late. The performances he put on over his last three wins would simply not have been enough to compete with Steve Garcia’s current form. Comparatively, Garcia Jr. has a much higher strike differential (he lands strikes more than he absorbs) compared to Nelson and has an insane 88% takedown defence rate.
The impressive takedown defence, coupled with the aggressive striking style, puts Nelson in a terrible spot tonight. Although I can see Nelson surviving in the early stages of the fight, I see him being one step behind Garcia’s pace and output from the jump and eventually succumbing to a finish in the second round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Steve Garcia Jr. by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Isaac Dulgarian vs Brendon Marotte
This is just a straight up mismatch. Marotte has a combined UFC experience of 20 seconds and his first four opponents have a combined record of 0-2-0. It’s honestly a surprised he’s in the UFC to begin with as it is pretty clear that he is out of his element, even someone who is a middle of the road fighter like Dulgarian should be able to make easy work of Marotte here tonight.
You can expect the difference in skill level to be apparent early on in the fight, and I can see Marotte being let go from the UFC roster depending on how bad tonight’s performance goes for him.
Although we have seen Dulgarian finish fights before, there is a chance that he will take Marotte down repeatedly for 15 minutes and grind out a decision win. For that reason, I’m recommending taking the safer route and going with the KO/Decision Double Chance if you are adding Dulgarian to your parlays tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Isaac Dulgarian by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady
These odds are a massive disrespect to the legend of the sport, Gilbert Burns. Burns has shown his mettle time and time again against some of the best fighters in the world, including Jorge Masvidal, Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev. On his best day, he can compete with anyone in the Welterweight division. I know I cannot say the same for Sean Brady. He initially had a solid run in the octagon but has not been very active since losing his undefeated record. Over the last two years, Brady has fought two times (Oct 2022 and Dec 2023). In that same time, Burns had twice as many fights and fought fighters with many different styles. In every one of those fights, Burns was competitive, and his ability to adapt to his opponent was clear and on display.
Brady is seen by many as a one-trick pony who relies far too heavily on his grappling to get him through opponents and while that might seem ok for most opponents. Burns is literally the worst kind of matchup for that fighting style. Burns’ confident striking and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu mastery will cause real problems for Brady who will struggle on the ground against the third-degree black belt if he tries to change levels during the fight.
Looking at this fight, I have to give Burns an edge with his activity in the octagon and his skillset. With his odds coming in at even money, that makes this pick a nice value spot.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Gilbert Burns by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible FOURTH-ROUND KO).
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s ten-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Isaac Dulgarian (Double Chance KO/Decision) -225
Steve Garcia Jr. (Double Chance KO/Decision) -160
Jaqueline Amorim vs Vanessa Demopolous to go the Distance -190
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Andre Petroski vs Dylan Budka to go the Distance -165
- Gabriel Santos by Decision +155
