Allan Fabrykant 
CANNONIER V BORRALHO
Tonight’s UFC action brings us the finale for the Ultimate Fighter Middleweight and Featherweight Tournaments for a total of 12 fights, finishing off with a middleweight fight between two fighters looking to break into the top 5. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 96 Cannonier vs Borralho.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
James Llontop vs Viacheslav Borshchev
Llontop fell a bit flat on his UFC debut following a decisive win the Dana White Contender Series. However, it is hard to have a more embarrassing UFC performance than Borshchev who last fought against Chase Hooper and was outstruck 62-2, including getting knocked down until halfway through the second round where Hooper submitted him.
The playbook is out on Borshchev and despite some heavy hands, he absorbs way too much damage and although Llontop is not know for his grappling, it’s hard for him to be much worse than Borshchev who sports an abysmal 35% TDEF ration in the UFC.
Llontop will have to use his reach advantage and pick his opponent apart from distance rather than getting into a dirty boxing fight. I think it’ll take him all 15 minutes, but I think Llontop will get the job done and secure the upset win in this spot tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: James Llontop by UNANIMOUS DECISION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Michael Morales vs Neil Magny
This fight is a clear mismatch, Morales, a 25-year old undefeated prospect is going up against the 37-year old gatekeeper Neil Magny.
At this point, Magny has nothing going for him that will truly put Morales in danger. Morales has both better striking and grappling and Morales’ striking technique and power are simply better than Magny was in his prime. Now, at 37, Magny will look washed against the young up-and-comer.
Morales’ key to victory here is to stay, patient, don’t run into any of Morales’ traps and steadily ramp up the pressure as the fight goes on. Magny will be a tough guy to get out of the octagon early but I don’t think Magny has any realistic shot to win here.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Michael Morales by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Zach Reese vs Jose Medina
Following a loss on the Contender Series back in October of last year, Medina has now found himself inside the UFC despite not having fought since. Reese, on the other hand, is coming off of a first-round KO over Julian Marquez just over two months ago.
Now, what’s truly surprising about this matchup is that Medina did not show a good account of himself on the Contender series. Despite making it to the judges’ scorecards, he was outstruck pretty heavily (73-24) and got taken down six times. Medina had an abysmal 26% strike accuracy in that fight and simply put, that will not be good enough against Zach Reese.
Despite not being known for his takedowns (he still holds two submission wins), Zach Reese will have no problem putting heavy pressure on the feet and taking Medina into deep water with his powerful striking and his significant advantage in his striking technique. Unfortunately for Medina, this will be one of those fights where the difference in skill levels will be very apparent early on, and this fight should end very quickly after it begins.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Zach Reese by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Caio Borralho vs Jared Cannonier
Cannonier has never been that impressive to me. His strongest wins as of late have all come by unanimous decision, and despite receiving a title shot, he has never truly found a spot amongst the top class in the middleweight division.
After Cannonier’s last loss to Nassouradine Imamov, and at 40 years of age, it seems like the UFC might see Cannonier’s career trajectory on the decline as they matched him up with a young and game opponent sitting outside of the top 10. For Borralho, this is truly the toughest test that he has faced to date but also one that he will need to pass with flying colors if he wants to eventually make a run at the title.
Statistically, Borralho is a much more technical striker than Cannonier. Despite having a lower volume of strikes than Cannonier, Borralho is more accurate, can defend strikes better, and can mix in takedowns and grappling. Caio will need to set the tone of the fight early by making sure the fight stays at his pace, and he can put added pressure on Cannonier by gassing him out early on.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Caio Borralho by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible FOURTH-ROUND KO).
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s ten-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Cong Wang (Double Chance KO/Decision) -350
Michael Morales (Double Chance KO/Decision) -375
Caio Borralho -275
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs Josiane Nunes to go the Distance -225
- James Llontop +180
