Allan Fabrykant 
TUIVASA V TYBURA
We had an excellent night for UFC 299! Let’s continue the winning train tonight on UFC Vegas 88. The card will feature 13 fights, with some great matchups throughout, and will end with a fight between two Heavyweight fighters looking to enter the title conversation. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 88 Tuivasa vs Tybura.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Christian Rodriguez vs Isaac Dulgarian
There were plenty of underdogs that caught my attention on tonight’s card (i.e. Natan Levy and Jaqueline Amorim). However, the one that caught my attention the most was Christian Rodriguez, coming in at plus money over Isaac Dulgarian.
You may remember Rodriguez as the guy who took zeroes away from both Cameron Saaiman and Raul Rosas Jr. Despite both wins coming by decision, they actually represented Rodriguez’s versatility very well. In the fight against Rosas, he was taken down three times in the first round and made the adjustments from there. By the end of the fight, he had stuffed 13 takedown attempts from Rosas, secured a takedown of his own, crushed Rosas in the grappling department and scored the decision victory after winning rounds two and three.
Again against Saaiman, despite the close first round, Rodriguez made the adjustments and dominated in the second and third rounds, mixing up both grappling and striking.
To Dulgarian’s credit, he is 6-0-0 (he’s fought a lot of guys who are either no longer fighting or have bad losing records), with all his wins coming via first-round finish, and although he definitely does have knockout power, he’s relatively untested against a guy like Rodriguez, who just came off of taking zeroes off of two hype trains. We also don’t know how Dulgarian’s tank will fare the later into the fight he goes. Realistically, Rodriguez has way more of a shot to win this than the odds are giving him here, and I can see him taking this fight by decision.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Christian Rodriguez UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Thiago Moises vs Mitch Ramirez
This fight is one of the biggest mismatches of the card. On one side, we have a former ranked UFC Vet who is only 28 years old and has 12 UFC fights under his belt going up against a fighter who lost decisively on the Contender Series and is making his UFC debut not fighting anyone near the level of Thiago Moises.
The clearest difference in skill level will be seen in the grappling department. Moises holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and won his last two fights via submission.
Ramirez has never fought anyone with the grappling ability of Moises and definitely has not had the proper time to prepare for this level of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as he is coming in on a week’s short notice.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Thiago Moises by SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Ovince St. Preux
If this fight happened a decade ago, OSP would’ve been a lock. But at this point, he’s forty years old and despite my concerns with Nzechukwu he is in his prime and should easily be able to handle OSP.
OSP has lost three of his last four fights, with his only win coming via split decision against an even older Shogun. Getting knocked out in under a minute by Phillipe Lins should have been a clear sign for OSP that it’s time to hang it up.
Unfortunately for OSP, Nzechukwu does possess knock-out power, and if he connects, I don’t think OSP will be able to last very long.
More than anything, the issues that I have with Nzechukwu moving forward are 10x for OSP. Durability, gas tank, focus and Fight IQ. As much as I think Nzechukwu may struggle the higher up he gets in the UFC, OSP does not have the skillset anymore to challenge in any of these areas.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Kennedy Nzechukwu FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura
This is honestly a tough pill to swallow, but Tai Tuivasa is objectively not the play here. He’s a power puncher with a bad tank and even worse technique and fight IQ. That kind of fighter used to find some success in the Heavyweight division but is quickly getting booted out of the top 10 by technical strikers who wait out the gas tank and put heavy striking and pressure on their opponents throughout the fight. Tybura is coming off a loss, but it was to Tom Aspinall who will be the next title challenger in the heavyweight division. There is no shame in losing to a fighter of his calibre.
Tuivasa, on the other hand, has now been finished in three straight fights and has not shown improvements. His takedown defence has continually been poor, even getting taken down twice by Derrick Lewis.
If Tybura is able to survive the early onslaught and maintain a high pace while mixing in his grappling and takedowns. He will coast to a victory in this fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Marcin Tybura UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Kennedy Nzechukwu (Double Chance KO/Decision) -375
Thiago Moises -400
Charlampos Grigoriou (Double Chance KO/Decision) -130
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Jaqueline Amorim vs Cory McKenna to Go the Distance -190
- Charlampos Grigoriou (Double Chance KO/Decision) -130
