Allan Fabrykant 
DERN V RIBAS 2
After a month-long layoff, we are finally BACK with the first UFC action of 2025! Tonight, we have 14 fights lined up, the headliner being a rematch between two of the top female talents in the UFC, Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas. There are some amazing matchups all throughout the night, so be sure to check out the top picks and plays below! Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 101 Dern vs Ribas 2.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Carlston Harris
This is a really interesting matchup as both of these fighters are definitely in the back half of their careers but are looking to make one final push at the top of the Welterweight division. Ponzinibbio is significantly more experienced but has been on more of a cold streak as of late, with Harris seeing some success but taking very long layoffs between fights.
Ultimately, what I see this fight coming down to is activity, and Ponzinibbio is a far more active fighter, with over 1.5 more strikes landed per minute than Harris.
Grappling won’t be much of a factor in this fight, with neither fighter having particularly remarkable takedown ability while both have respectable takedown defence.
So, with this fight largely taking place on the feet, I will definitely favor the more experienced fighter who has a much higher striking output. At nearly even odds, Ponzinibbio is a great bet for tonight’s UFC card.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Santiago Ponzinibbio by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Jacobe Smith vs Preston Parsons
Smith is a serious problem with a record of 9-0-0, he has secured seven KO wins, six of which ended in the first round. He has been an absolute menace with crazy punching power and relentless ground and pound.
In his contender series matchup, he took a little bit of time to get settled, but once he locked in, it was game over for his opponent, Christien Savoie. In their matchup, Smith landed seven of eight takedown attempts while outstriking Savoie 55 to 11 before finishing him with hellbows from full mount halfway through the second round.
All of this spells bad news for Parsons, who has proven to be a very mediocre fighter,r dropping three of his fight UFC fights while only holding a striking differential (Strikes Landed per Minute minus Strikes Absorbed per Minute) of +0.83 compared to Smith’s +5.56 striking differential. Parsons will struggle to keep up with Smith in tonight’s fight, and with his abysmal 36% takedown accuracy, he won’t have much of a chance to take Smith out of his zone.
I will be taking Smith to secure a convincing KO victory in his UFC debut
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jacobe Smith by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Marco Tulio Silva vs Ihor Poteria
We saw both of these fighters quite recently, towards the tail end of 2024. Out of Tulio, we saw a highlight reel spinning back kick KO to secure his eighth straight win and secure a UFC contract on the Dana White Contender Series. On the other side of this fight, we saw Potieria get soundly defeated with a clean 30-27 on all three judges’ scorecards.
With the loss, Poteria fell to 21-7 with an embarrassing 2-5 record in the octagon. Unfortunately for Poteria, the bad news doesn’t end there, as he has weighed in heavy for the second time in his UFC career.
This is honestly a dream debut matchup for Tulio, who carries serious striking power and is coming up against an opponent who weighed in heavy, is on a downward spiral and absorbs a lot of strikes.
This fight will not go the distance, watch for another highlight reel finish out of Tulio.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Marco Tulio Silva by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Amanda Ribas vs Mackenzie Dern
As mentioned at the outset of the article, today’s fight between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas is a rematch, as the two fought each other in October of 2019. This first matchup was very telling, as I think we will see a similar fight on tonight’s card.
The traditional thinking for this matchup would be that Ribas is the skilled striker and Dern is the skilled grappler, and although that is true, there is a glaring area of concern for Dern in this matchup—mainly her 16% takedown accuracy. There’s no other way to say it: that is abysmal, and if your primary ability to win fights necessitates takedowns, 16% just ain’t gonna cut it. Not to mention, in their first matchup, Dern went 0-6 on takedown attempts vs Ribas.
Now, even though that was Dern’s first fight back from maternity leave, it’s hard to see tonight’s fight going any differently, especially given that Ribas went 2-2 on her own takedowns with 1:46 minutes of control time (against the grappler) while also outstriking her 74-20. This means that Ribas is not afraid of going to the ground with Dern and can hold her own against her, too.
Ribas was heavily underrated in their first matchup, and even though we aren’t getting the same kind of value in this spot, I still like Ribas to take the fight the distance and have a convincing win over 25 minutes.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Amanda Ribas by UNANIMOUS DECISION
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s ten-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Fatima Kline by Decision -150
Cesar Almeida (Double Chance KO/Decision) -200
Nurullo Aliev by Decision -225
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Jacobe Smith by KO -100
- Nicolle Caliari by Submission +850
