Allan Fabrykant 
WHITTAKER V ALISKEROV
We were robbed of one of the highlight main events of the year in Whittaker vs Chimaev, but on short notice, Aliskerov signed the contract and saved the main event. With all of Chimaev’s health issues, I don’t know if he will ever be the same fighter that he once was. But as far as UFC Saudi Arabia is concerned, it is still one BANGER of a card. Ahead of the big UFC 303 card, we have an early one with many fighters whose last names end in v! We have 11 fights locked and loaded, with the return of former champion Robert Whittaker. We’ve got some fantastic matchups that will end with two fighters looking to make a push for the middleweight title. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 12:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Saudi Arabia Whittaker vs Aliskerov.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Muhammad Naimov vs Felipe Lima
This was a tough one since Aliskerov is far and away, my top underdog on the card. Despite Naimov being a slight favourite on the money line, the fact that the odds are as close as they are leaves us with a lot of room to work with.
Naimov is an established fighter in the UFC (3-0 in the organization), fighting on friendly territory, on a six-fight win streak (including one win last February) against a fighter making his UFC debut coming off of a decision win nearly a year ago.
This fight is also a short notice callup for Lima who was training for another fight next month in a different organization. So, for Naimov, he has a full camp against a short-notice call up yet to fight anyone of UFC calibre.
We have also seen incredible consistency from Naimov. Decent strike output with 50 to 60 significant strikes a fight, combined with a strong ground game to keep his opponents guessing on what is to come next. I think that he will lead the action in tonight’s fight against Lima and could find the knockout but will more likely stay reserved, fight intelligently and control him for all 15 minutes with high pressure on the ground and ground strikes.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Muhammad Naimov UNANIMOUS DECISION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Sharabutdin Magomedov vs Antonio Trocoli
Shara Bullet is one scary fighter to compete against. I have never seen a fighter with so few holes in his striking game. His takedown defence could use a little work, but his striking technique is picture-perfect.
No offense to Trocoli but he really does not seem like the type of fighter who will give Shara Bullet a run for his money. Trocoli is on a four-fight win streak after bouncing back from a three-fight losing streak on the regional scene, is making his UFC debut and has not fought since 2021 after having three fights fall through (two of which he pulled out of), the third scheduled for last weekend against Aliskerov but rebooked so Aliskerov could take tonight’s main event. Trocoli has not fought anyone near the calibre of Magomedov and I think this will be a very quick night at the office.
Trocoli will either be swarmed with pressure by Magomedov’s strikes or go down early to one of his brutal shots, as we have seen 10 times out of Magomedov’s 12-0-0 career.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Sharabutdin Magomedov by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Sergei Pavlovich vs Alexander Volkov
Pavlovich is another scary fighter going up against one of the vets in the heavyweight division. Despite losing a tough matchup against Tom Aspinall for the interim belt, he is in a great spot tonight against the 35-year-old Volkov.
Both fighters have very similar techniques and striking styles, but there is a BIG difference in power between them. So significant that I wouldn’t be shocked if this fight ended within the first two minutes.
We’ve seen Volkov lose by knockout a couple of times throughout his career, and with the speed and power of Pavlovich, he’s going to have real trouble making the reads he needs to stick around in the fight. I can see Volkov remaining in the top 10 after this fight. But this fight will showcase a clear skill difference between the top 5 and the rest of the heavyweight division.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Sergei Pavlovich FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Robert Whittaker vs Ikram Aliskerov
This is a risky one, despite the short notice bout, Aliskerov was training for a fight originally scheduled to take place one week ago and despite being matched up against a much stronger opponent now, I would definitely say that Aliskerov is up for the challenge.
Aliskerov has a 15-1-0 record, with his only loss coming on the regional scene to none other than Khamzat Chimaev. At that time, Chimaev was running through everyone, so a loss against him is nothing to be ashamed of. Aliskerov has since notched a seven-fight win streak, including two wins in the UFC, both coming by KO. Whittaker, on the other hand, has had an up-and-down time at the top of the middleweight rankings with alternating wins and losses since 2021. Whittaker was never able to get the best of Israel Adesanya nor current champ Dricus Du Plessis and now sees himself hovering in the top 5 of the middleweight rankings.
Whittaker is the perfect kind of opponent for Aliserkov. Someone who matches up well with him stylistically (with Aliskerov having a higher striking output and getting more takedowns in his fights). Whittaker has also been KO’d a few times in his career (2019 to Adesanya, 2023 to Du Plessis) but is still towards the top of the rankings.
It will be a big challenge for Aliskerov, and Whittaker could definitely walk away with the win, but I see Aliskerov with a clear edge here in the striking game and a lack of damage throughout his career. Aliserkov is an extremely talented fighter, and with a win here, he will clearly cement himself within the top 10 in the middleweight division. He can look forward to a run at the title.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Ikram Aliskerov FOURTH-ROUND KO
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (Double Chance KO/Decision) -190
Sergei Pavlovich -250
Rinat Fakhretdinov (Double Chance Submission/Decision) -190
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Sharabutdin Magomedov (Under 2.5 Rds) -188
- Kelvin Gastelum to win via Decision +120
