Allan Fabrykant 
NAMAJUNAS V CORTEZ
We had a week-long break from UFC, and after the mayhem from International Fight Week, we truly needed the break, extremely short notice replacements, amazing matchups and a spectacular finish in the light heavyweight title fight. Tonight, we have 12 action-packed fights, with two fighters looking to break into the top 5 of the women’s flyweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 59 Namajunas vs Cortez.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Andre Petroski vs Josh Fremd
This one is a tougher fight to call because, to be fair, both of these fighters have been disappointing in their careers. However, while Petroski has shown some flashes of talent and has struggled with inconsistency, I have no confidence in Fremd in this matchup. Despite having an advantage in height and reach, Fremd does not throw a lot from distance and has terrible accuracy whenever he does throw. Petroski has clear advantages in both strike accuracy and Strikes Landed per Minute while also holding a significant advantage in takedowns per 15 (4.32 T/15 vs 0.84 T/15).
Neither of these fighters have significant knockout power and I think this fight may turn into a grapple fest with Petroski gaining a clear advantage over his less experienced opponent. As Petroski is a Gracie-trained Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.
It’s important to note that despite Petroski losing his last two fights via KO, I am not as concerned in this matchup against Fremd. As I mentioned, Fremd’s striking is not impressive, and Petroski will limit any attempts from Fremd to take a strong position on the ground. The oddsmakers have this fight as being an even matchup but I have a clear edge for Petroski in this one.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Andre Petroski UNANIMOUS DECISION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Gabriel Bonfim vs Ange Loosa
This is one of the only fights of the card that genuinely seems like a mismatch. Despite losing his last fight, Bonfim is definitely still a top talent, with submission wins in four of his last five fights. Loosa, on the other hand, got out of the fight against Bryan Battle that he was starting to lose. Many fans, commentators and even Battle himself were upset with Loosa following the ending to that fight, and his fights beforehand did not inspire much more confidence with a loss to Mounir Lazzez (someone who Bonfim just beat in under a minute) and two decision wins against AJ Fletcher and Rhys McKee.
Bonfim has incredible grappling, and this fight will quickly transition to the ground, where Bonfim will make quick work of Loosa. Bonfim has decent striking as well; however, his big advantage is in the grappling department, and his clearest and quickest path to victory is via submission.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Gabriel Bonfim by FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Muslim Salikhov
Ponzinibbio has been a little unlucky since he recovered from his injury back in 2018. Many forget but Ponzinibbio was seen as one of the top fighters in the Welterweight division back in 2018-19 with a win over then-future champ Sean Strickland and a cancelled fight against another future champ in Kamaru Usman.
Since his return to the octagon, he has had back-to-back split decision losses and a competitive fight against Kevin Holland; Ponzinibbio finally has a solid matchup against an opponent he was set to face off against back in 2021. This is his chance to make another run at the top and get his career back on track. However, he will need to set the tone of the fight early with his high striking output. Ponzinibbio is good enough that he can stop Salikhov from gaining a striking rhythm at any point during the fight
Ponzinibbio is also a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and can transition the fight to the ground if he needs to mix it up. Realistically, Ponzinibbio has a big advantage in this spot against a 40-year-old opponent who has dropped his last two fights.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Santiago Ponzinibbio SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Rose Namajunas vs Tracey Cortez
After an original matchup against Maycee Barber, Thug Rose is set to face a rising prospect in the women’s flyweight division, Tracey Cortez. Despite going undefeated in the UFC (5-0-0), oddsmakers see her as a clear underdog against the former champ Rose Namajunas. This is because this fight is a huge step up in competition for Cortez, especially on short notice. Rose has competed with the best of the best in the Strawweight division, including defeating the current strawweight champ, Zhang Weili, twice. Namajunas has quick hands and great striking technique, and her grappling will cause Cortez real problems.
This is a great stylistic matchup for Rose and the lack of height or reach advantage from Cortez makes me believe that this fight will be another case of an opponent that was too tough too soon. This fight should be competitive early on with Namajunas taking a clear edge as the fight goes on, especially since this will be a five round fight. I recommend taking Thug Rose by decision here.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Rose Namajunas UNANIMOUS DECISION.
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Santiago Ponzinibbio (Double Chance KO/Decision) -175
Joshua Van (Double Chance KO/Decision) -200
Gabriel Bonfim (Double Chance Submission/Decision) -200
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Andrei Petroski vs Josh Fremd to go the Distance +150
- Rose Namajunas by Decision +110
