Allan Fabrykant 
COVINGTON V BUCKLEY
Folks! We have made it to the final UFC card of 2024. Just ahead of our holiday break, we have 13 fights coming straight from Tampa, Florida. Tonight’s action will culminate in a welterweight fight between two fighters looking to break into the top 5 of the welterweight division. There are some amazing matchups all throughout the night, so be sure to check out the top picks and plays below! Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 63 Covington vs Buckley.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Ottman Azaitar vs Michael Johnson
This fight is a bad vs worse kind of situation. Despite the odd win here or there neither of these fighters have much to celebrate lately. Neither fighter has been extremely active and both these fighters are past their prime with Michael Johnson pushing near 40 years old.
And that is where my view of this fight takes a definitive turn towards Azaitar. This is not the same Johnson that beat Poirier and fought against Nurmagomedov and Gaethje, Johnson has lost his KO power and had some embarrassing performances, including a loss in 2021 against Clay Guida, who fought to a quick submission loss last week against Chase Hooper. Guida and Johnson are legends of the game but their time has passed.
Although there are legitimate concerns regarding Azaitar’s chin, Johnson won’t be the one to test it. Azaitar will be able to ease into the fight and should be able to take control of the fight around halfway through. Azaitar does have the power to put Johnson out but there is a good chance the fight goes the full 15 minutes as well. I like the value on Azaitar here.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Ottman Azaitar by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Joel Alvarez vs Drakkar Klose
This fight will be a certified banger. Both fighters have been hot and have very heavy striking with each of them securing a KO finish in either of their last two fights.
When looking at Alvarez’s style, he has a clear edge over Klose. His striking technique is cleaner, his punches are faster and he holds a pretty significant height and reach advantage over Klose. Alvarez also mixes in knees and elbows effectively to throw off his opponents.
Klose also came dangerously close to losing his last fight after going up two rounds, getting knocked down and nearly knocked out. That kind of Fight IQ will be very dangerous against a fighter like Alvarez
Alvarez will use his reach advantage to keep the fight at distance and if he catches Klose clean, he will end the fight early.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Joel Alvarez by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Navajo Stirling vs Tuco Tokkos
Stirling is making his UFC debut after a crazy KO finish on his Dana White Contender Series fight just a few months ago and he could not have asked for a better matchup in his first fight.
Tokkos is fighting in his second UFC fight after falling flat and getting choked out in the first round against Oumar Sy earlier this year. Tokkos spent most of the round easily getting handled on the ground before getting submitted.
Stirling competed against a serious threat in his DWCS fight who had come into that fight with four straight KOs while Tokkos has never beaten an opponent at the level of Stirling. Stirling power will surprise Tokkos and I see Stirling putting this fight to bed early in the first round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Navajo Stirling by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley
This is a tough call to make because the odds are simply not onside with my pick here, in the main event. Don’t get me wrong, Buckley is a powerful striker but we haven’t seen him challenged by an All-American wrestler and BJJ Black Belt at the calibre of Colby Covington.
Colby has gained a lot of haters for his on-screen persona, but when analyzing his actual skills, he is a real talent. If you look back at his performance against Leon, even though he didn’t do enough to win his fifth round, it shows that not only does he have the tank for 25-minute fights, but he also knows what he needs to do to win fights. It’s not pretty, but Colby’s path to victory is 25 minutes of holding his opponent down and grappling his way to a victory.
Colby is coming in on short notice. However, if he sticks to a grapple-heavy game plan, Buckley will be in a lot of trouble tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Colby Covington by UNANIMOUS DECISION
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s ten-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Fight to Go the Distance (Miranda Maverick vs Jamey-Lyn Horth) -425
Navajo Stirling by KO -200
Fight to Go the Distance (Josefine Knutsson vs Piera Rodriguez) -400
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Sean Woodson by Decision +130
- Colby Covington by Decision +375
