Allan Fabrykant 
CANNONIER V IMAVOV
After a wild UFC 302 card with an INSANE title fight, we are off to Louisville, Kentucky for tonight’s UFC action. We have 14 fights locked and loaded, with the return of former champ Jared Cannonier. We’ve got some fantastic matchups that will end with two fighters looking to make a title push in the Middleweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 5:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 57 Cannonier vs Imavov.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Zach Reese vs Julian Marquez
This is actually a very underrated matchup. Despite the fact that Reese had a tough loss in his UFC debut, he is still a top talent who should be well-positioned to dispatch Julian Marquez here tonight. Marquez has lost two of his last five fights, with his only wins since 2017 coming against former UFC fighters Sam Alvey and Maki Pitolo, two of the biggest cans in UFC history.
Marquez has not performed well in a very long time, with a brutal KO in his last fight, and he suffered three knockdowns (in one round) in the fight before that. It has been over a year since we saw him in the octagon, and frankly, from what I saw when he was in the octagon, I was not too impressed. I expect Marquez to look for a takedown when the striking game doesn’t end up working out for him, but I think his tank simply won’t be able to keep up with Reese.
Marquez will look slower throughout the fight, which could have a later finish or end via Unanimous Decision
MY UFC DFS PICK: Zach Reese by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Dustin Jacoby vs Dominik Reyes
Reyes is one of the most snake-bitten fighters I have ever seen. He went from nearly giving Jon Jones his first legitimate loss to losing his next three fights, getting knocked out in each, including an ugly KO to Spann early in the first round back in 2020. On top of that, he has spent almost two years outside the octagon and is coming back against an extremely consistent and technical fighter in Dustin Jacoby. Despite four losses in his current UFC stint (7 wins – 4 losses), all four came via decision, two of which were split decision and all four of which were competitive.
For Jacoby, I couldn’t imagine a more perfect matchup. At this point, Reyes is very compromised and definitely gun-shy, and he will be a step behind Jacoby for the entire fight. This style will play perfectly for Jacoby as he can strike for all 15 minutes and accumulate damage on Reyes for the whole fight. We have regularly seen Jacob record over 100 strikes in a fight, and with his Strikes Landed per Minute rate (SLpM) of 5.53 and Reyes’ Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM) rate of 3.77, I can see Jacoby easily getting over 100 strikes again in this one. (Odds for Jacoby to get over 100 strikes +187).
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alex Morono by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Brunno Ferreira vs Dustin Stoltzfus
Brunno Ferreira is a scary fighter. With four UFC-recognized fights under his belt, he has gone 3-1-0, with all four fights ending by knockout in the first round. With his current matchup against Stoltzfus, I don’t see tonight’s fight going any different for Ferreira. The only point of note for Stoltzfus is that he can grapple and may look for a takedown if things do not go his way. However, I do not see this fight getting that far.
Ferreira packs some serious power in his punches and has an SLpM of exactly 5, much higher than Stoltzfus’s SLpM of 3.49. Stoltzfus is the taller fighter with more reach, so Ferreira’s path to victory lies in a dirty boxing fight at close range. That’s exactly how I see this fight going. If it somehow gets past the first round, I really don’t see it getting through the second round. I am very confident that Ferreira will find the finish in this one.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Brunno Ferreira FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Jared Cannonier vs Nassourdine Imavov
This is a very tight matchup between two top middleweights, but even at 40, I have to give Jared Cannonier a slight edge. The former title challenger is still rattling off impressive wins against top talent like Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori. As he has been getting older, much of his knockout power has gone, but his technique, timing and positioning are still as good as ever. Imavov is coming off of a close majority decision win over Roman Dolidze four months ago; however, even in that fight, he was controlled for over 10 minutes of the 15-minute fight.
I see this fight staying on the feet, with both fighters exchanging strikes for all 25 minutes. I have general concerns about the gas tank of both of these fighters. However, even with the age difference, I have more confidence in Cannonier, who has more experience with 5-round fights in the UFC than Imavov (4 full 25-minute fights for Cannonier and 2 for Imavov).
If you’re looking for a parlay piece for this fight, over 4.5 rounds at -155 is a solid option.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jared Cannonier UNANIMOUS DECISION
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Brunno Ferreira (Double Chance KO/Decision) -225
Jared Cannonier vs Nassourdine Imavov (Over 4.5 Rounds) -155
Dustin Jacoby (Double Chance KO/Decision) -200
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Rayanne Amanda to win via Decision +150
- Miguel Baeza (Double Chance KO/Decision) -105
- Carlos Prates to win in the Distance -120
