Allan Fabrykant 
LEWIS V NASCIMENTO
We are one week removed from the amazing UFC 301 card, and today’s action takes us to St. Louis, MO for more UFC Fight Night action. This card will feature 12 fights that will end with a bout between two fighters looking to break into the top 5 of the heavyweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 56 Lewis vs Nascimento.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Billy Goff v Trey Waters
This is an interesting matchup because on paper I don’t see a lot separating Goff and Waters except for the fact that Goff is a heavier striker and Waters is a slightly better grappler.
Tactically, they have very similar records and stats in the UFC with an obscenely high Strikes Landed per Minute with a very high Strike Absorbed per Minute rate with a strike defense percentage just above 60%.
With not much separating the two fighters here and with an edge to Goff on the feet, I’m surprised that we get such good value for Goff’s Money Line in this spot at +130.
As far as underdogs go on this card Goff is my clear top choice.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Billy Goff UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Mateusz Rebecki vs Diego Ferreira
Rebecki is an absolute killer and for very good reason he will be coming into tonight’s card as the heaviest favorite on the slate. He’s well versed in both striking and grappling and has four finishes over his last six fights. On top of that, he’s 19-1-0 in his career compared to Ferreira who holds a 18-5-0 record after losing three of his last four fights.
Statistically, Rebecki is clearly better in every aspect of the fight game. He lands more strikes per minute (+0.65 difference), absorbs less strikes per minute (+1.41 difference), has better striking defense and secures significantly more takedowns per 15 minutes than Ferreira.
Rebecki is going to come out of the gate strong and l can see him looking for an early finish but there is also a chance he could grapple his way to a decision so I would not recommend taking Rebecki by finish alone.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Mateusz Rebecki by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Robelis Despaigne vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
Both Cortes Acosta and Despaigne have found early success in the heavyweight division of the UFC but there is a big difference between these two and it’s that Despaigne is a beyond belief talent. He’s had five fights in his career all finishing my 1st round KO, including in his UFC debut two months ago against Josh Parisian.
Despaigne has some deadly striking and given Cortes Acosta’s recent lacklustre performance against Andrei Arlovski and his loss to Marcos Rogelio de Lima, I can’t see him keeping up with Despaigne on the feet for very long.
I can see Despaigne to come out of the gate swinging and securing another first Round KO.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Robelis Despaigne FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento
For the main event on tonight’s card we got an ABSOLUTE BANGER. Derrick Lewis is heading up tonight’s card and is facing off against Rodrigo Nascimento. Nascimento is usually a timid fighter who looks for opportunities to bring the fight to the ground and possibly secure a submission. Lewis is the opposite, he’s got some of the heaviest striking in the UFC and one clean shot will put Nascimento right out.
There won’t be as much tactical combat in this one as much as it will be Lewis looking for his shot. Against most top fighters in the heavyweight division Lewis comes in as an underdog since he is outmatched in both technique and positioning but Lewis is rightly coming into this matchup as a favorite since Nascimento truly isn’t that much better than Lewis so with Lewis’ heavy power advantage he is well positioned to win this matchup.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Derrick Lewis FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Sean Woodson to win via Decision -110
Robelis Despaigne (Double Chance KO/DEC) -225
Mateusz Rebecki (Double Chance KO/DEC) -250
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- JJ Aldrich vs Veronica Hardy to go the Distance -390
- Derrick Lewis -160
