Allan Fabrykant 
MAKACHEV V MOICANO
We are BACK! With our first numbered card of 2025, do we have a banger tonight? Some last-minute maneuvering saved the main event, and as a result, we will have 13 fights lined up all the way from Los Angeles, California. There will be some amazing matchups all throughout the night, so be sure to check out the top picks and plays below! Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 311 Makachev vs Moicano.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Ailin Perez vs Karol Rosa
To start off today’s article we have a women’s bantamweight fight between one fighter who is struggling to find consistency and another who has begun to put together some solid performances as of late.
Rosa started off her UFC career strong with four straight wins. However, since 2022, Rosa began alternating wins and losses, struggling to find any consistent success in the Octagon. Since her strong start In the organization, she has lost three UFC fights, only ever winning her fights by decision.
Perez, on the other hand, has been on a roll. After losing her UFC debut in 2022, Perez has rattled off four straight wins and is making her case to break well into the top 10 of the women’s bantamweight division.
Although Rosa does have a higher strike output, Perez is much more skilled in the grappling department, and I believe we will see Perez bring the fight to the ground and grapple her way to victory while also mixing in the ground strikes. All the momentum is with Perez, and if she can control ROsa’s quick strikes early, she will be in the driver’s seat for this fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Ailin Perez by UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Payton Talbott vs Raoni Barcelos
This one should not even be close, Talbott is an undefeated fighter, with three UFC fights now under his belt, climbing up towards the peak of his career while Barcelos is 11 years older than him and has dropped four of his last six UFC fights.
Things really fell off for Barcelos in 2021 after a stellar run which saw him win his first five UFC fights. Since his first loss against Timur Valiev, Barcelos has struggled to put the pieces back together frequently getting outstruck and even getting knocked down against Victor Henry and Umar Nurmagomedov.
In this matchup, Talbott will be relying on his, height, reach, and overall striking output advantage to put him in the drivers seat of this fight. Barcelos’ only hope is to bring the fight to the ground however, even that path seems narrow given that Talbott has an impressive 90% takedown defense rate. Talbott also has a significant speed and power advantage putting Barcelos at significant risk of getting knocked out early in the fight.
I expect to see this fight stay on the feet and for Barcelos to be dealt some heavy blows early that will be tough for him to come back from. Barcelos will slowly start to fade by the end of the first and Talbott will finish the job early in the second.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Payton Talbott by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible FIRST-ROUND KO)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Bogdan Guskov vs Billy Elekana
Guskov is one scary fighter. After winning both of his last two fights by KO, Guskov now finds himself as a ranked fighter in the Light Heavyweight division, squaring off against someone making their UFC debut on short notice.
Guskov’s power is what’s really gonna set him apart in this fight. Early on you’ll see him dominate exchanges on the feet and unfortunately for Elekana, he will be a step behind in the fight until Guskov knocks him out.
Look for Guskov to cut off Elekana’s angles early, corner him and quickly increase pressure before throwing out some combos. Elekana will have to limit Guskov’s mobility if he wants a chance in this bout but if Elekana can’t even get the kicks going against Guskov, it’ll be an early night for him.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Bogdan Guskov by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Islam Makachev vs Renato Moicano
This one is a tough one. Moicano has been on quite a roll in the UFC, winning his last four fights, and both his striking and grappling are very impressive. Thankfully for Moicano, he was already preparing for a fight this week before the short-notice opportunity. However, Islam is not someone who you can prepare for in one day.
Islam has an intense Dagestani grappling style that most fighters have not figured out how to compete with. Given the short notice change in opponents, I don’t see Moicano having enough time to prepare for a grappler like Makachev.
Although there is a lot of value in Moicano, given where the lines are at, I still struggle to see Moicano getting the upper hand in this bout. Look for Makachev to rely heavily on his grappling and try to wear down Moicano, never giving him a chance to get his striking going.
Although, I would want Moicano to win, the reality is Islam most likely has this one in the bag.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Islam Makachev by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible FOURTH-ROUND SUBMISSION)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s ten-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Bogdan Guskov by KO -138
Payton Talbott (Double Chance KO/Decision) -550
Karol Rosa vs Ailin Perez to go the Distance -450
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Jailton Almeida (Double Chance KO/Submission) -200
- Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov -235
