Allan Fabrykant 
JONES V MIOCIC
Tonight will be the highly anticipated return of the best active pound-for-pound fighter on the UFC roster, Jonny ‘Bones’ Jones,. After nearly a year and a half, Jones is back in the octagon for what may prove to be his final fight. We have a star-studded card tonight with 13 fights lined up on tonight’s card, with the main event featuring Jones vs Miocic fighting for the UFC Heavyweight title! There are great matchups all throughout the night, so be sure to check out the top picks and plays below! Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 309 Jones vs Miocic.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Jonathan Martinez vs Marcus McGhee
To start off tonight’s card, we have up-and-comer Marcus McGhee against UFC vet and top-10 bantamweight Jonathan Martinez. Although McGhee has had a strong start to his Martinez is definitely the toughest opponent he has faced to date. McGhee has been used to fighters who like to charge in recklessly and swing in the pocket and he’s used that to his advantage. Martinez, on the other hand, is a far more cerebral fighter who picks his shots carefully and invests a lot of time into leg kicks to hurt his opponent’s mobility and rack up damage over time.
Martinez has had significant success with his leg kicks, earning two performance of the night bonuses for leg kick finishes against Adrian Yanez and Cub Swanson.
Martinez’s strike counts don’t usually get very high, but he does manage to out-point his opponents, regularly getting decision victories.
In this matchup, I would much rather prefer Martinez’s calculated style over McGhee’s heavy pressure. We will see Martinez control the pace of the fight early and slowly begin to pull away from McGhee on the judges’ scorecards. I would recommend taking the value on Martinez in this spot as an underdog.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jonathan Martinez by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler II
In the co-main event of tonight’s UFC card, we have former champ Charles Oliveira competing against Michael Chandler.
Chandler was an exciting fighter after making his way over from Bellator, but after the initial hype surrounding his debut win over Dan Hooker, his success has fizzled out, going 1-3 over his next four fights, with his only win coming against an aging Tony Ferguson. (One of which was a KO loss against Oliveira)
Speaking of aging, Chandler is pushing 39 years old and is two years removed from his submission loss to Dustin Poirier. In comparison, Charles fought to a split decision against Arman Tsaryukian earlier this year and still holds legitimate title aspirations.
In their first matchup, Chandler took a clear advantage early on with a lopsided first round, only to be put out cold early in the second round by Charles in what was one of the greatest comebacks in UFC history. That will be difficult for Chandler to combat mentally, and given where they are in their careers, Charles Oliveira has a clear skill advantage as well.
I would take Charles to finish this fight on the ground after a competitive first round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Charles Oliveira by SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible FIRST-ROUND KO)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Mauricio Ruffy vs James Llontop
This matchup is very straightforward: Ruffy is an absolute killer, and Llontop is a terrible UFC fighter on the verge of being cut after going 0-2 in his first two UFC fights.
Ruffy has only had one UFC fight, and yet that was enough to earn a performance of the night bonus against Jaime Mullarkey after he put Mullarkey out with a flying knee, which was followed up by some punches. Ruffy is a dangerous man, and frankly, Llontop is mismatched here.
Llontop also appears to not be taking things seriously after missing weight again this weekend, making it two weight misses in only three UFC fights.
We will see Ruffy waste no time going after Llontop with crazy power, trying to get him out of there early. I see this fight ending in the first round with an impressive KO by Ruffy.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Mauricio Ruffy by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic
Finally, after over a year and a half, Jon Jones is back in a UFC octagon in what may be his final fight. He’s truly done it all and won it all. He was one of the first and one of the best all-around fighters in the UFC; his wrestling is some of the best in the history of the UFC, his striking is superb, and his grappling and submissions are also top-notch.
In tonight’s matchup, he’s taking on former heavyweight champ Stipe Miocic, who is nearly five years older than him and hasn’t fought in nearly four years after a brutal one-punch KO at the hands of Francis Ngannou.
One thing is clear about this matchup: Miocic is not the fighter he used to be, and even if he was, Jon Jones would still crush him. Jones is a better striker and a far better wrestler. We will see those differences take shape early on as Jones looks to make a statement about this fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jon Jones by SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible FIRST-ROUND KO.)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s ten-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Fight to Go the Distance (Veronica Hardy vs Eduarda Moura) -260
Jon Jones (Double Chance KO/Submission) -300
Charles Oliveira ML -250
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Jonathan Martinez by Decision +210
- Mauricio Ruffy by KO -150
