Allan Fabrykant 
PEREIRA V ROUNDTREE
After a crazy set of fights last week, we are back state-side for the heavily anticipated UFC 307 in Salt Lake City, Utah, and in tonight’s action, we will have a total of 12 fights on the card. The main event will feature a Light Heavyweight Title Bout between Alex Pereira and Khalil Roundtree. Both of these fighters are very exciting to watch, and every MMA fan is in for a big treat tonight! Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 307 Pereira vs Roundtree.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista
The legend is back! After a brief retirement, Aldo is back in action tonight against Mario Bautista, a Bantamweight who is on the edge of cracking into the top 10.
At now 38, years of age, Aldo looks like he hasn’t lost his shine and is looking to make one more run at glory. Despite the age difference, he is still an extremely dangerous fighter, and I would not look past him in this spot tonight. Despite Bautista being on a 6-fight win streak, he has not fought someone with the pedigree of Aldo and will struggle to mix in the takedowns with Aldo’s 91% career takedown defense rate.
Look for this fight to stay on the feet and end in a close decision. Ultimately, I see the former champ, Jose Aldo, taking this one.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jose Aldo by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND ROUND-KO).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Kayla Harrison vs Ketlen Vieira
This is a pretty significant mismatch as the two-time Judo Olympic Champion and two-time PFL Women’s Lightweight Champion is facing off against a fighter who is three for five over her last five fights.
Kayla’s Judo and submission are textbook and with her polished striking on top of her grappling she has been able to outclass opponents far better than Vieira. Harrison will have more challenging fights in her career, however, this is not one of them. Vieira is a BJJ Black belt and has avoided getting submitted throughout her career. So, although the fight itself may end via Decision, this one will be a walk in the park for the blossoming superstar Kayla Harrison.
Vieira has also not stepped inside the octagon in over a year and will be in rough shape against someone who has had two fights in that time. Expect the ring rust also to play a factor here.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Kayla Harrison by FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Cesar Almeida vs Ihor Poteria
After an impressive win on the Contender Series (1st round KO) back in the summer of 2022, he has been embarrassing to say the least. He has gone 2-4 over his six UFC appearances getting knocked out in all four losses. A few months ago the UFC matched up Poteria with Shara Magomedov who as we have seen before, would’ve absolutely ripped him apart.
After pulling out of the Shara Bullet fight, the UFC rebooked him with Cesar Almeida, who is coming off of a split decision loss against Roman Kopylov, an impressive Contender Series win and a clean KO win of his own in his UFC debut.
Almeida has super impressive kickboxing and absorbs way less damage than Poteria. I can see this fight staying on the feet, but I don’t see it lasting very long with Poteria’s durability problems. I will be taking the Brazilian by KO.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Cesar Almeida by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Alex Pereira vs Khalil Roundtree Jr.
Roundtree has been good as of late, with a 5-0-0 record, including four KOs and three Performance of the Night bonuses. Hes a solid power puncher who can mix in the kicks if needed and personally, I believe he deserves the title shot he has been given.
However, as the odds suggest, he is pretty significantly mismatched against his opponent, Alex Pereira. Pereira is a kickboxing legend who tore through the UFC upon arrival. He has scary power in his kicks and extremely precise striking, and his knees in the clinch are deadly. Not to mention that he is able to cut so much weight that he usually has a significant weight advantage over his opponents. The reality of tonight’s matchup is that Pereira has easily dispatched fighters who are more talented than Roundtree Jr. with ease. Pereira looks like he is only improving as his title reign continues.
We will see a masterclass tonight out of the champion that proves that there are levels to this sport. Not to mention, on top of Pereira has significantly improved his takedowns, grappling and takedown defense since he first appeared in the octagon. Considering the significant mismatch here, I see this one being a quick night at the office for Pereira.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alex Pereira by SECOND ROUND-KO (possible FIRST ROUND-KO.)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s ten-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Alex Pereira -500
Joaquin Buckley (Double Chance KO/Decision) -180
Fight to go the Distance (Carla Esparza vs Tecia Pennington) -600
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Ryan Spann by KO -110
- Cesar Almeida (Double Chance KO/Decision) -325
