Allan Fabrykant 
DU PLESSIS V ADESANYA
Tonight’s UFC action brings us to the land down under for UFC 305, there will be lots of action with 12 bouts coming our way including three fighters from the illustrious City Kickboxing Academy including the heavily anticipated middleweight title fight. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 305 Du Plessis vs Adesanya.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Valter Walker vs Junior Tafa
Walker has been a savage throughout his career, but he came up short in his last fight against Lukasz Brzeski. In that fight, Walker dominated in control time but simply came up against a better striker. In this case, however, Tafa is not a better striker. A 5-2-0 career fighter (1-2-0 in the UFC) who picked up a disappointing loss against a mediocre heavyweight fighter is unsurprisingly in a bad position in this fight.
It’s honestly very surprising to me that Walker is even coming into this fight as an underdog since he is so versatile and can compete on the feet and on the ground. I wouldn’t even call Tafa a one-trick pony since I wouldn’t say he excels at any particular aspect of MMA above an average UFC heavyweight.
I can see Walker taking his time with this one and moving the fight to the ground quickly. He can either rack up control time and win a decision or get Tafa out of there with a clean ground-and-pound finish.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Valter Walker by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Tom Nolan vs Alex Reyes
This fight is realistically extremely uncompetitive. It says less about Tom Nolan and more about that fact that Alex Reyes is simply not UFC calibre. Reyes has had two fights in the UFC and lost both, of those two fights, only one took place in the last six years. That’s right, Reyes’ first of two UFC fights cam against Mike Perry, nearly seven years ago.
Sure, Reyes has been a little unlucky with injuries and fighters pulling out, but the fact of the matter is he has had two fights in nearly seven years and lost both by 1st round knockout. Against anyone of UFC calibre, Reyes simply wouldn’t fair well, especially against someone like Nolan, who is coming off of a first-round KO victory earlier this year against Victor Martinez.
This fight won’t last very long; Nolan is going to put on the pressure and get Reyes out of there early.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Tom Nolan by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Carlos Prates vs Li Jingliang
Prates is an absolute specimen. Across his two UFC and one DWCS fights, he has looked nearly invincible, putting away all three of his opponents in impressive fashion (securing two performance bonuses in the process). Tonight, he’s going up against an extremely inconsistent opponent in Jingliang, who has dropped two of his last three fights and has not stepped into a UFC octagon in nearly two years, compared to Prates, whose three wins mentioned above have all come within the last 12-months.
The reality of this fight is that Prates is going to overwhelm Leech. Prates can mix up his strikes well with kicks and punches and is also the kind of fighter who will absorb some damage to get a knockout blow.
Look for Prates to also exploit his 7-inch reach advantage and pepper Jingliang with strikes from distance, ultimately leading to a standing KO early in the fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Carlos Prates by FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya
This is a pick ’em fight in the truest sense of the phrase. Both of these fighters have similar skillsets and flaws. Both Dricus and Izzy are elite level kickboxer and have very similar fighting styles.
Both are very exciting fighters, however both have seen their fair share of trouble putting their opponents away. I can see this fight as a close striking contest that ultimately goes to the judges’ scorecards.
A few points that are making me lean toward Dricus are as follows:
– Emotion: Izzy has gotten too emotional with this fight; he will make decisions out of anger and emotion rather than tactics and skill. That will be a big mistake, as being mentally tough is a major factor in professional fighting. Letting the distractions get to you and letting your opponent get into your head is a severe mistake.
– Takedowns: Izzy is not a great grappler; if Du Plessis is struggling at all on the feet, he can transition the fight to the ground and put pressure on Izzy with ground-and-pound (as we saw Du Plessis do in his fight against Strickland, which arguably won him the belt in the first place). Du Plessis is currently averaging three takedowns per 15 minutes, and Izzy has an abysmal takedown defence rate of 40% compared to Du Plessis’ 77% takedown defence rate. Having this extra tool in his arsenal will be a big advantage for Du Plessis and an extra layer that Izzy will have to consider ahead of this fight.
– Pressure: Not as much the pressure that Izzy has put on himself for this fight (although he has put a lot), but more so the significantly higher striking output that Du Plessis has across his UFC career when compared to Izzy. Du Plessis averages around 6.5 strikes landed per minute, while Izzy is just shy of 4. Over a 25-minute fight, that will add up a lot, and Izzy can find himself in trouble being behind on the judge’s scorecards by simply getting outstruck by Du Plessis over the five rounds.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Dricus Du Plessis by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible FOURTH-ROUND KO).
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s ten-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Tom Nolan (Double Chance KO/Decision) -550
Jack Jenkins (Double Chance KO/Decision) -500
Carlos Prates -350
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Mateusz Gamrot vs Dan Hooker to go the Distance -240
- Steve Erceg by Decision +130
