Allan Fabrykant 
EDWARDS V MUHAMMAD 2
We have finally made it!! The long-awaited UFC 304 British card is finally upon us and boy are there a lot of excellent fights in this one. Tonight, we have 14 action-packed fights, with two title fights headlining the card, the Welterweight championship and the Interim Heavyweight Championship. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 304 Edwards vs Muhammad 2
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Oban Elliott vs Preston Parson
I’m honestly quite surprised to see that we are getting this kind of value on Elliott here. He’s secured his first UFC win against a tough opponent in Val Woodburn and holds the Contender Series win under his belt. On the other hand, Preston Parson has been incredibly inconsistent, losing two of his four UFC fights (only two wins coming by Decision) while only having two fights since 2022 for an overall record of 11-4-0.
Statistically, Elliott also has a clear advantage with more strikes landed per minute, fewer strikes absorbed per minute and a significantly better strike defence rate.
Elliott is a very quick striker who is very durable and can grapple well if Parsons tries to transition the fight off the feet (as we have seen Parsons do in the past). Parsons, on the other hand, has been unimpressive, with generally low strike counts and significant amounts of control time in his wins. If Parsons does not get creative, Elliott will have a big leg up in this matchup.
Expect a close fight here (especially early on), with the hometown Elliott having a clear edge throughout the fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Oban Elliott UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Muhammad Mokaev vs Manel Kape
This is a very firey matchup. These two have some serious beef and nearly came to blows at the pre-fight staredown.
As good as Manel Kape has been lately, there are a few glaring issues that are going to plague him. Firstly, his last couple of fights were a little too close for comfort. In each of his last two fights, at least one judge scored the fight 29-28. Secondly, in the Dvorak fight, Kape was taken down twice. In fact, the main reason why he picked up a loss against Nicolau was due to the two takedowns secured against Kape in the fight. Against a gifted grappler in Mokaev, that’s a tough stat to hold
Thirdly, Kape has not been nearly as active as Mokaev with Kape only competing twice since 2022 (7 cancelled bouts) while Mokaev has fought six times in that same time period with his most recent win coming earlier this year against former title challenger Alex Perez.
Although I do think Mokaev will face some challenges at the highest levels of the flyweight division, Kape’s style does not do him any favors against Mokaev. I can see Mokaev taking the fight to the ground early, looking for a sub or holding him down for all 15 minutes. Mokaev has the strength and talent to get a clear advantage in this one.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Muhammad Mokaev by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Sam Patterson vs Kiefer Crosbie
This fight is going to be a little lopsided. Patterson is beginning to find his grove in the UFC after picking up a submission win in his last fight against Yohan Lainesse. Crosbie, on the other hand, started strong on the feet but showed zero ability to defend himself on the ground.
If Patterson can transition this fight to the ground quickly, this fight will be a wrap. It is clear that Crosbie did not know what he was doing and was simply outclassed by Kevin Jousset.
On top of that, in this fight, the crowd will be a real factor in this matchup, with the vast majority of fans backing the hometown hero, Sam Patterson.
At a record of 10-4-0, Crosbie is not in a great spot to continue his UFC career, and if he suffers another early submission loss in this bout, his time in the UFC will be very short-lived.
Sam has the talent (BJJ Black Belt) and the speed to put Crosbie away quickly; expect him to do so.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Sam Patterson FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad 2
This was a long-awaited rematch given how underwhelming their 2021 No Contest was. However neither of these fighters have a big exciting factor and have been known to slow down fights and secure decision wins rather than going for an exciting finish. In fact, between the two fighters, they’ve had seven of their last nine fights finishing by decision.
The odds are quite clearly favoring Leon in this matchup, and there are a few reasons for this. Despite Belal having some impressive moments since their first matchup, the difference in skill level between Edwards and Muhammad was apparent immediately as Leon took an early lead in the contest. His striking was crisp; he was touching up Belal badly, and it didn’t seem like Belal had much of an answer to Leon’s pressure.
On top of this, Leon is fighting on home turf, while Belal, not necessarily known for being a fan favorite will have a lot of pressure around him.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Leon Edwards UNANIMOUS DECISION.
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Sam Patterson -400
Shauna Bannon v Alice Ardelean to go the Distance -190
Muhammad Mokaev -170
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Tom Aspinall (Double Chance KO/Decision) -200
- Leon Edwards by Decision +125
- Molly McCann (Double Chance KO/Decision) -225
- Nathaniel Wood – 450
