Allan Fabrykant 
MAKACHEV V POIRIER
After a week-long layoff we are back in Newark, NJ for the heavily anticipated UFC 302. We have 12 fights locked and loaded, with possibly the last appearance of Dustin “the Diamond” Poirier in the octagon. We’ve got some fantastic matchups throughout, that will end with the UFC Lightweight Championship belt on the line between the champion and a former champion. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 302 Makachev v Poirier.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Roman Kopylov vs Cesar Almeida
Here, we have a tale of two completely different fighters. On one side, we have Cesar Almeida, a 36-year-old kickboxer with five MMA fights under his belt (one DWCS and one UFC), both of which he won as the underdog. He is matched up against a 33-year-old UFC roster staple in Roman Kopylov, who, despite losing his last fight, has won four of his last five and is a five-time combat sambo world champion.
Almeida had a very successful career as a kickboxer, going 47-8, but his style is a terrible matchup for Kopylov. Kopylov has a high-pressure style of fighting and likes to push the pace of fights and drag his opponents into deep waters. Kopylov is also a heavy striker, with his last four wins coming through knockout.
Kopylov is very versatile with his strikes and can land with both his feet and his hands. I am very surprised that Kopylov is coming into this fight as an underdog, but I believe it’s because the bookies have been burned on Almeida too many times.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Roman Kopylov by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Alex Morono vs Niko Price II
I think that this is the perfect matchup for Morono. He’s got a matchup with a fighter who is pretty even with him skill-wise but way behind him in activity. While Morono has had three fights in the last year, Price has had four fights in the last three years, three of which he lost.
Price used to show some real promise when he first began his UFC career, but since 2017, he has lost five of his last six fights, and the only fight he won was a close decision win against a washed Alex Oliveira. Price even fought against Morono back when he was starting to build up some hype in 2017 (the Price win was later overturned to a No Contest due to a failed drug test). However, now they are two very different fighters. Morono has progressed with clean decision wins and some truly impressive performances and has earned black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Taekwondo since the first fight. Price has stayed in the same spot with no real career progression after some initial excitement.
I think this fight has a clear storyline. Although it may start pretty even, as the fight goes on, Morono will slowly start to take an edge, with Price fading in the later rounds. I really like Morono to win on the judges’ cards, but there is a decent chance he will get a finish over Price in this fight as well.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alex Morono by UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Kevin Holland vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
Oleksiejczuk has had a tricky path in his UFC career. As soon as he sees some success, he is matched up against a superstar and ends up in very tough spots. He is a very talented and well-rounded fighter. However, he doesn’t have the skill to take him to the higher level, and honestly, this matchup against Holland is a bit of a mismatch.
Holland talks a lot and sometimes loses focus, especially when he is the better technical fighter, but we cannot lose sight of the reality of the situation. Holland is clearly a better fighter than Oleksiejczuk in every aspect of the fight game: speed, power, grappling, and control. Holland is just better, and we will see that quite clearly right off the bat against Oleksiejczuk.
This fight will be fun to watch, and I can easily see a performance bonus coming out of it. Both fighters like to be aggressive and box, and both have high Strikes Landed per Minute rates (4.24 for Holland and 5.06 for Oleksiejczuk). However, once Holland mixes up his strikes and introduces the grappling, it’ll be all over for Oleksiejczuk.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Kevin Holland FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Islam Makachev vs Dustin Poirier
As much as I personally would love to see Poirier lift the championship one more time, it would be irresponsible to say that I seriously believe he should be considered a favorite to win this matchup. Makachev is just coming off a head-kick knockout against one of the most dominant champions in UFC history and has amassed a crazy record of 25-1-0.
Poirier, on the other hand, has had a storied career that has seen brilliant rivalries, the highest of highs, and the lowest of lows. Considering that retirement may be on the table after this fight for Poirier, I can imagine that he will give everything he has to secure a win in this one.
The question is, will it be enough? First and foremost, if he wants to succeed in this fight, he has to avoid getting taken down. Makachev will look for takedowns early and often and will look to hold Dustin in place for 25 minutes. Dustin has to keep Makachev on his toes and can make the fight easier on himself if he controls the octagon and gives Makachev little room to work. He has to make the fight strike-heavy and gritty, very much like his fight against Hooker.
However, Makachev is most likely to eventually find a takedown, and he will wear Poirier down with the extremely impressive Daegestani wrestling style, which often leaves opponents exhausted and open to future takedowns.
Of note: Some were speculating that Makachev was dealing with a Staph infection during his training camp, and although it is unconfirmed, if it is true, it could have a very negative effect on Makachev’s cardio and strength in the later rounds.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Islam Makachev UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible DUSTIN POIRIER SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Bassil Hafez (Double Chance KO/Decision) -150
Kevin Holland -275
Sean Strickland -275
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Ailin Perez to win via Decision +100
- Alex Morono -250
- Jailton Almeida by Submission +130
