Allan Fabrykant 
PANTOJA V ERCEG
WinDaily’s UFC Fight Night is heading down to Brazil for tonight’s UFC action. For UFC 301, we have 13 fights locked and loaded, with every fight featuring a hometown fighter. We’ve got some fantastic matchups throughout, that will end with the UFC Flyweight Championship belt on the line between the champion and a former champion. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be four top plays followed by best bets. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 301 Pantoja vs Erceg.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Jose Aldo v Jonathan Martinez
The legend has returned home. At only 37 years old, Jose Aldo has amassed an insane career. He went from being a longtime WEC Featherweight champion to the inaugural UFC Featherweight champion, dominating the division for nearly three years. He has fought in some of the greatest bouts the sport has ever seen, and there’s no doubt that when he finally does decide to hang up the gloves, he will quickly find himself in the UFC Hall of Fame.
In tonight’s matchup, Aldo will face Jonathan Martinez, who has won his last six fights and is currently the 9th-ranked fighter in the Bantamweight division. Unsurprisingly, despite the matchup on paper, nobody is counting out Jose Aldo. Aldo’s last four losses came against certified killers like Merab, Volk, and Yan. Although Martinez is a solid fighter, he is not in the same level of competition as those who were able to beat Aldo.
I think we’ll see this fight stay on the feet for the whole 15 minutes, with both Aldo and Martinez picking each other apart with shots at distance, as neither of these fighters likes to take the fight to the ground. By the end, I expect Aldo to secure a close decision win.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jose Aldo UNANIMOUS DECISION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Michel Pereira vs Ihor Poteria
Pereira is such an unpredictable fighter. He makes risky decisions and has been known to go for flashy shots rather than technical striking and power punching. However, he wins fights. He has won his last seven fights, the last two of which ended by first-round KO. His opponent, Potieria, has not been doing a lot of winning lately, with only two wins in his five career UFC fights, one of which came against a fighter making his UFC debut, while the other came against an aging Shogun Rua.
He has been knocked out in each of Poteria’s losses, and this fight will be no different. I see Pereira pulling ahead in the strike count early, then going for a flashy KO in the late first and early second rounds. However, if he doesn’t get the quick knockout, this fight could easily turn into a decision win for Pereira. So, be careful if you are going to bet on Periera to win; I would stay away from a KO win by itself and instead go for the double chance KO/Decision.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Michel Pereira by SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel
Despite losing Benoit Saint-Denis in his last fight, Bonfim has had a red-hot start to his UFC career, beginning with a SAVAGE flying knee KO over Terrance McKinney. Losing to BSD is no knock against him either; Saint-Denis is a killer whom nobody should be ashamed to lose to.
Vinc Pichel, on the other hand, is also coming off a loss but hasn’t fought in two years. Pichel is now 41 years old and is not the fighter he used to be. The age difference is very significant here (13 years), which means Bonfim will be faster, stronger, and will pack more power in his punches, but most importantly, Pichel will not be able to eat shots as well as he might have been able to in the past.
I think this fight will be a clean and quick victory for Bonfim. Although I am confident he will secure the KO. I recommend taking him on the KO/Decision Double Chance just to be safe.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Ismael Bonfim FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Alejandro Pantoja vs Steven Erceg
In my opinion, this is a risky one and a super close fight. However, I cannot ignore Pantoja’s dominance in the Flyweight division. With five straight wins against some of the top dogs in the Flyweight division, Pantoja clearly has earned his title and is in what would appear as a favorable matchup against a fighter who has only gone 3-0 in the UFC to this point.
Erceg has a 12-1-0 record and some stats that are fairly similar to Pantoja’s (albeit against weaker opponents). Both Pantoja and Erceg have a Strikes Landed per Minute rate of just over 4 in the UFC, while both hold a Strikes Absorbed per Minute rate of just over 3.5 in the UFC. Both hold a +65% Takedown Defence rate, and both average around two takedowns per 15 minutes.
On paper, this fight may seem closer than it appears at first glance, and although I do think it will be close, there is value in Erceg. For my official pick, I have to side with Pantoja. I can see this being a war for 25 minutes to cap off an excellent UFC 301 card in Rio.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alejandro Pantoja UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
TOP BETS
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Michel Periera (Double Chance KO/Decision) -225
Ismael Bonfim (Double Chance KO/Decision) -275
Caio Borralho -600
PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Dione Barbosa to win via Decision +130
- Vitor Petrino to win via Decision +190
- Joanderson Brito to win via Submission +333
