Allan Fabrykant 
O’MALLEY V VERA 2
After a great fight night card last week, we are back in Florida for the final Pay-Per-View Card ahead of UFC 300! We have a lot of up-and-coming young talents fighting against seasoned veterans of this card (including the highly anticipated UFC debut of Michael ‘Venom’ Page!). There will be a total of 14 fights with some great matchups throughout the card that will end with a fight for the UFC Bantamweight title. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top four favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 299 O’Malley vs Vera 2.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH & GPP):
Dustin Poirier vs Benoit Saint-Denis
The odds are unbelievably disrespectful to Poirier in this matchup. Don’t get me wrong, Saint-Denis is a warrior, but he got picked apart by Eliezu Zaleski, who was 35 at the time of their fight, the same age as Poirier is now. Zaleski picked Saint-Denis apart with shots for the whole fight, and although Saint-Denis has improved quite a bit and is a more well-rounded fighter, this matchup is a massive step up in competition, one that Saint-Denis simply isn’t ready for.
Although it’s true that Poirier is coming off of a vicious head-kick loss, he is still Dustin Poirier and is still clearly one of the top five fighters in the lightweight division. A loss to someone as talented as Gaethje doesn’t lower his stock in my eyes, and he has recently posted wins against Michael Chandler and Conor McGregor.
No matter where this fight goes, the ground, the feet, Poirier will have an advantage and he will have an answer to whatever Saint-Denis throws his way. I can see this fight being an absolute war, especially considering that it is a five-round fight, something that Poirier is very accustomed to and Saint-Denis is not.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Dustin Poirier SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Asu Almabaev vs CJ Vergara
Although Vergara has seen some success lately, he won’t be ready to handle Asu Almabaev’s grappling. Almabaev is coming off two straight submission victories, including one against Ode Osbourne in the second round of his UFC debut.
Although Vergara may put up a bit of resistance early, his far worse strike differential will open up the takedowns and once the fight transitions to the ground, it’ll be all but over.
Also of note is that Almabaev trains alongside fellow Kazakh and #3 ranked UFC welterweight Shavkhat Rakhmonov and will most likely have him in his corner for this fight. Almabaev will have a long career in the UFC and I am excited to see who his next matchup is following the Vergara fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Asu Almabaev by SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Robelis Despaigne vs Josh Parisian
I’m willing to bet that Parisian wanted nothing to do with this fight. He was most likely told it was non-negotiable if he wanted to stay in the UFC. His opponent, Robelis Despaigne is an extremely dangerous opponent who is making his UFC debut after amassing a 4-0-0 record with 4 straight 1st round KOs, three of which came in the first minute.
The Cuban is an Olympic Bronze Medalist in Taekwondo and has amassed some highlight reel level knockouts in his short UFC career. He also holds an eight inch reach advantage and a three inch height advantage over his opponent.
Parisian has lost three of his last four fights in the UFC and it’ll be tough to see him stay in the organization following the expected result here tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Robelis Despaigne FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY MAIN EVENT PREDICTION (CASH & GPP):
Sean O’Malley vs Chito Vera
Many commentators are saying that Chito is undeserving of this title shot, and they are absolutely right. The only reason why Chito is getting the shot over someone like Merab or Sandhagen is because O’Malley wants to avenge his 2020 loss, where a Vera kick that hit a nerve behind his knee severely damaged his ability to walk during the fight. O’Malley was always the better fighter, even in that matchup where he rightfully came in as a 3 to 1 favorite. Now, as champion with five straight wins following the loss, O’Malley will have the perfect opportunity to exact his revenge on the sole blemish on an otherwise perfect record.
O’Malley has incredible range and extremely deceiving feints, as we saw in his knockout over Eddie Wineland two months before his first fight against Vera. If you slow down the video, you’ll see a slight feint uppercut followed by a fast right cross. O’Malley has mastered these hidden strikes and has been able to get even his toughest opponents to bite hard or not even realize the shot is coming.
O’Malley does have something to prove, and he won’t take this fight for granted. He will come out ready for a fight, and if the rumours are true that Chito had a bad camp and a bad weight cut, I can imagine things going even better for O’Malley.
I do see O’Malley securing a decision win here, touching up Vera with strikes for 25 minutes to accumulate damage over time.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Sean O’Malley UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible FOURTH-ROUND KO)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play the Parlay of the Day. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Asu Almabaev (Double Chance Submission/Decision) -320
Mateusz Gamrot (Double Chance KO/Decision) -320
Robelis Despaigne (by KO) -275
POSSIBLE ADD:
Sean O’Malley (by Decision) +155
